You can’t, unless you re-register as a Republican. Although most CA elections are open primaries, the Republican primary is closed. The Democratic primary allows independents, but I don’t think they allow registered Republicans, either.
My sister is a registered independent, and she got mad at the last Presidential primary because she only got a Democratic ballot.
The UK is like what, 90% white? Not remotely useful comparing with U.S. race issues.
Adaher angry! Adaher smash!!!
**Martin Hyde **nailed it in 712.
This is me almost exactly. A Progressive Democrat who’s had more success than most, but still it pales compared to what my less capable parents did almost by default.
Switching gears …
The media being so wrong certainly makes sense in the early going. It makes progressively less sense as we go forward.
The legit media is driven by 4 forces or goals:
OTOH Fox is driven almost entirely by 4, with a healthy larding of anti-3: cheerleading for extremism is good.
What I’m starting to wonder about is how much legit media has fallen into 4 and 2, forgetting 1 along the way? Or better said, how much *more *is this true in 2016 than it was in earlier times?
Or perhaps their in the same confused state as Cruz v Rubio and Establishment GOPism is in:
How can they take Trump seriously as the front-running threat to the USA that he is, without in effect endorsing him (or at least greatly legitimizing him) and thereby contributing yugely to the *fait accompli *they desperately hope to avoid?
Conor Friedersdorf does a magnificent job in The Atlantic (the only magazine I have continued to subscribe to for several years now) laying out how the GOP is now reaping what it has sown. That’s not a revolutionary insight, but the way he prosecutes the argument is a thing of beauty, a great piece of writing and just an absolute bullseye:
But surely Trump is doing what politicians have done for many a long year: play to the base?
You misspelled “pander.”
A statesmanlike presidential nominee will often choose a running mate to be his attack dog. But Trump does that himself - he needs a statesmanlike running mate.
Same difference.
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Much like those quivering at the thought of making their opponents “feel the Bern”.
Yes, Trump is a symptom of the problem for the GOP, not the problem itself. The problem is their base and the way they have lied to them and pushed their buttons for decades in order to win by promising things they can’t, won’t and wouldn’t if they could deliver.
Right, and they’ve trained them not to evaluate arguments in any kind of reasoned way, which then puts them out of reach of being reasoned to.
Well, now that we’re past Super Tuesday, the next big deal is the wave of winner-take-all primaries on March 15.
Between now and then, we’ve got Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, and Puerto Rico this weekend, Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, and Mississippi on Tuesday, then the Virgin Islands, Guam, and DC next Thursday and Saturday. No winner-take-all, not even winner-take-most. They’re all basically proportional, or close variations on it. Michigan has a 15% threshold.
Most interesting thing that’s happened with respect to these primaries and caucuses is that Rubio’s canceled appearances this week in Kentucky and Louisiana, which suggests that he’s said to himself, “I need to win Florida, and I’m 16 points behind in my home state, so screw everything else for the next 12 days.”
I’m not sure how much candidate personal appearances move the needle at this point in the primary season, but I love the smell of Rubio desperation sweat in the morning.
I think it’s more a sign that Rubio realizes that he needs to get with the team effort to stop Trump, which means winning Florida. Kasich is also now focusing on Ohio. Cruz is the only guy who seems to be able to actually win some states that aren’t his home state. He’ll probably take Kansas. Predictit has him at 64% chance of winning.
This is where Trump’s free media strategy is going to show shortcomings. He’s going to be all over the place, but not really concentrating anywhere, so he’ll win more states than his opponents, but still probably fail to win a majority of delegates.
Rubio, like Kasich, beneifts from a brokered convention. He knows he can’t win a first ballot nomination, but he is still the most broadly acceptable candidate to Republicans. Assuming a contested convention doesn’t put Romney or Ryan at the head of the ticket, Kasich/Rubio seems like a pretty good option. Although Rubio needs to prove himself by winning Florida. If he can’t even deliver his home state in the REPUBLICAN primary, then what good is he as a general election candidate?
Here’s the deal: there are several states between now and March 15, then 5 states vote on March 15. FL and OH are WTA, MO and IL are not quite WTA but effectively pretty close, AFAICT. (MO is very much like SC in its approach to allocation. The fifth state, NC, is proportional.) If all goes as well as possible for the non-Trumps from now through 3/15, Rubio wins FL, Kasich wins OH, Cruz picks up a small state or two, and Trump wins the rest.
I don’t see how that slows him down that much.
A contested convention has become the new anti-Trump firewall.
Seriously, good luck with that. If Trump comes out of the primaries with way more delegates than any of his rivals, but has fallen a little short of 1237, and is denied the nomination, he takes his campaign independent. While a couple of states have deadlines before late June, most of the deadlines are in August.
Maybe he will. Better to lose the election than have Trump as our nominee. And getting on the ballot takes a lot more money and effort than Trump is willing to spend.
I would recharacterize Trump’s strategy as “Free media as much as I can; paid media to finish the job when necessary.”
But so far it hasn’t been necessary.
IMO there’s a chink in Trump’s armor right now. If indeed he loses primaries badly between now & 3/14 the media message will rapidly shift narratives to “Trump is a busted flush.” IF that happens he may not be able to buy enough media counterattack fast enough to reverse the effects on 3/15. Which he will duly lose while all the hot air comes out of his inflated bandwagon. (To murder a metaphor!)
At which point the media’s factually premature narrative pre-3/14 becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy on 3/16.
I don’t think that chink will actually get exploited though. He’ll do plenty good between now and 3/14 and the narrative will remain Trump vs. the Keystone Kops, both other candidates and the Romney / McCain / éminence grise du jour axis.
If fortune favors Trump on 3/15 then it’ll also be time for a new narrative on 3/16. But instead of a busted flush it’ll be one of his ever-increasing inevitability. Trump-dozer not Trump-loser.
My bottom line: I think it’s a fundamental error to assume that Trump will not, ever, invest money in media. He’s certainly invested in all the other aspects of campaigning. So far he’s had the luxury of keeping that media-buy money in reserve. But IMO he’ll deploy that money when it makes sense for him to do so. His only danger is being caught flat-footed by a surprise turn of events. And so far his campaign has been more nimble than the others, not less. So scant comfort for rational citizens like us on that axis.
Is there even a Trump campaign beyond the man himself? I’ve seen little evidence of planning, strategy, polling, focus grouping, a message, or groundwork. I know he’s paying some people, but they aren’t known as top tier strategists.
The other problem with the GOP contenders’ getting territorial is: outside of Florida and Ohio, how do they agree on what states are in whose territory? As Ed Kilgore notes, Kasich may have his sights set on Michigan in four days, but Rubio and Cruz are both running well ahead of Kasich there. Who’s supposed to contest Trump for Michigan’s 59 delegates, and who’s supposed to take a dive? How about North Carolina and winner-take-most Illinois and Missouri on 3/15?
Not to mention, the names are all on the ballot, people are watching the debates (or seeing clips online), and so forth, so it’s not like anyone can really campaign here but not there anymore, the way Frank Church, Mo Udall, and Jerry Brown did in the Anybody-But-Carter phase of the 1976 campaign for the Dem nomination. Cruz and Kasich supporters will still vote for their guys in FL, Rubio and Cruz supporters will still vote for their guys in OH, and so forth. There will undoubtedly be some drop-off in support due to lack of ads and candidate appearances, but how much, really?
That’s why I don’t buy into it much when people talk about strategic voting having an impact. Not many people do it and it’s disorganized among those that do. Like all this talk that some of Trump’s wins are because Dems hopped over to vote for the most beatable candidate. But I’ve seen just as much talk about Dems should hop over and vote so as to get a contested convention. Are we really to believe that thousands of Dems gave up voting for Bernie or Hillary to do that? And they mostly chose the same strategy? Meh.