Right now, a Trump reelection is the longest of odds. But let’s say lightning strikes twice and Trump somehow manages to do it again.
IMHO, the reaction will depend entirely on the margin of victory.
If Trump wins narrowly, like last time, the resistance movement will go on for basically another 4 years. If it is very narrow, there may be recounts. And if he wins in the Electoral College narrowly (i.e., 270-268) while losing the popular vote by a big margin, there may be considerable violence.
If Trump wins big, though, and there is truly nothing to dispute or recount, there may be an exodus of many Democratic voters from the nation (many threatened to leave in 2004 if Bush was reelected, or in 2016 if Trump was elected, but this may be what finally pushes them to actually do it.)
Trump have never won popularly, not in his election, not in the midterms which is a validation of him, yes he did win what is the elite house, the house of lords, AKA the senate. But the popular house, the house of commons, the house of the people, AKA the house he lost seats. Trump only wins with the elite and their advantage over the common person.
But as long as he wins or even loses he will still consider it a confirmation that he is the elected king https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/10/23/trumps-lawyers-claim-president-is-an-elected-king/ and continue to act like it. I believe this is the reason God limits human life span as we did we wouldn’t have much as a life if such a dictator was able to rule for centuries, it is a protection for us.
First, Trump isn’t the longest of long shots. He’s somewhere between even money and a 2 to 1 underdog. In gambling odds he’d be about a +150 or so. If he wins, however, his ceiling is pretty low. My guess is his best case scenario is the 2016 map plus Minnesota. And even if he wins 270-268 there won’t be massive violence. Democrats don’t role that way.
Speaking for myself, however, I will say that throughout Bush Jr.’s time, moving out of the country never even crossed my mind. I have thought about doing so for Trump, but it would depend on how bad things get over the next four years, not something automatic just because he wins.
If Trump is still standing in 2020 he will stand a great chance of winning as long as the economy has not taken a downward turn. “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Right, but I am not asking about Trump’s reaction to getting reelected - I think we all know what his reaction will be and it won’t surprise anyone. I am asking how the rest of America - particularly, blue voters - would react to him winning a 2nd time.
Candidates could take a majority of electoral votes with 29% of the popular vote. Yes, it’s unlikely, but still possible. Absent massive disenfranchisement and voter suppression, the current team of losers are MOST unlikely to gain anywhere near a popular majority. How much of a loss would America stand them to ‘win’ by?
There will be neither widescale violence, nor a mass exodus. This isn’t to say there won’t be any shootings, but this is the USA. There are shootings every day, so a small uptick from a few deranged Democrat supporters wouldn’t be anything except a couple of news stories (oh and the news networks would be ever so happy to report it wouldn’t they? Won’t somebody PLEASE think of the news networks?). Generally, widescale political violence happens when people are suffering, and Americans have far too many comforts (well-fed, comfortable, entertained) to give that up and take to the streets.
Which is likely to result in more violence/shootings: a Trump victory or a Trump loss? Because only one side has been regularly talking up “civil war”, “Second Amendment solutions”, and general armed resistance and refusal to accept election results, and it’s not the Democrats.
There won’t be any widescale violence from the right in case of a Trump loss either, for much the same reasons. That isn’t to say there might not be some small uptick, and that the vultures (broadcast news media) won’t salivate at getting to cover it, but Americans are too comfortable to have a real political revolt.
To be clear, this isn’t a knock against Americans. It is simply human nature.
I agree; it won’t remotely be “widespread” either way. Most people will just type furious rants on Facebook and repost pre-made memes and leave it at that. So the question is which loony fringe is more of a threat.
And even that’s not really a useful question for most purposes, although it’s worth asking in the context of someone positing that one side will reaction with “considerable violence” to an unfavorable election result while excluding comparative consideration of all sides involved.
On both sides of the aisle. Although the liberal threats to move are usually to more liberal places while the conservative threats to leave are ALSO to more liberal places.
Well, as you alluded to, conservatives don’t really have anywhere to go to. Liberals have a wide variety of more-liberal nations they could emigrate to (although they often don’t realize just how difficult immigration can be to, say, the EU.) This is why you generally hear more “If _____ wins, I am leaving America” threats from the left and the right; the right just has nowhere else to go to.
I don’t know how hard / easy it is to emigrate to the EU, but the standard “I’ll move to Canada” threat / promise usually demonstrates a profound ignorance of Canadian immigration laws on the part of the threat- / promise-maker.
I agree that the ‘I will move if XYZ is elected’ threats are usually baseless. Just as Ted Nugent didn’t end up in jail or dead after Obama won reelection in 2012.
And Rush Limbaugh still hasn’t gone to Costa Rica. People say all sorts of hyperbolic nonsense, particularly when politics are involved. And while you can probably emigrate on a whim if you’re an extremely wealthy celebrity, everyone else will find it much harder to achieve (speaking as someone who did (mostly) leave the country, albeit not for political reasons).
Yeah, the children and the children’s children aren’t saying that.
Exactly, I had a friend who moved countries believing that love could conquer all with her SO. It didn’t work. No idea if she was deported or left voluntarily.