The Repeal of Obamacare/ACA: Step-bystep, Inch-by-inch

The BBQ Pit
1021

Wouldn’t the skinny repeal pretty much kill the individual market? It seems that would result in horrible optics…finally repealing the “failing ObamaCare”, only to have all the insurers immediately exit the individual market in droves.

And another question/comment. I’m a full pay ACA insurance customer in a high cost of living state. If my premium goes up 20% I believe it would be high enough to be considered a Cadillac plan (I think $10,800.00 a year is the number and I’m currently paying $9360.00 a year), which would present a whole different set of difficulties .

Although I suppose the answer may be that they wouldn’t offer my plan anymore which is expensive because it has a 0 deductible, reasonable co-pays and a $2000 a year out of pocket max. So the “skinny repeal” is bugging me because I’d probably be affected immediately. But pre ACA I couldn’t get an individual plan for less than 20K a year, so I always had these crappy association plans that were high deductible HMO only and even those ran $500-$600 a month.

So I’m feeling tweaked about this whole thing.

1022

Two procedural questions:

  1. After the last amendment is voted on - IOW, when the content of the Senate bill as it will be voted on is finally defined - is there time for more debate after that, or do they go straight to a vote on the bill?

  2. How quickly can the House grab the Senate bill once it’s passed, and put it on the floor for a vote?

Asking because I’ve got this nightmare where Mitch puts up the final amendment (an entirely new bill for all practical purposes, but an amendment for procedural purposes) on Friday at 4am, having already gotten 50 votes for it. Then the bill, consisting entirely of Mitch’s amendment, is immediately voted on in the Senate, then carried over to the House, and voted on there before most of us have had our second cup of coffee. And the Clownstick has a signing ceremony at 4pm, before going off to play golf for the weekend.

This isn’t possible, right? Right?

1023

Here, drink this. *<Thelma hands **RTFirefly *a cup of camomile tea with 1/4 mg xanax dissolved in it> And hold Snookums here. <Thelma puts a cuddly, eight-week old kitten on RTF’s lap> I wish I could answer *no *to your question. :frowning: I’m pretty sure the answer to the golf part is yes in any case.

1024

Ann Hedonia (one of my favorite dope names, by the way), yes, it will likely really upset the insurance companies. Expect them to pull out of markets or, if staying, to jack up the premiums.

In many ways, the “skinny repeal” is the worst possible outcome for Republicans. They would be eliminating the mandate, which is unpopular, but the result would be likely to blow up the individual market AND to take away a popular drumbeat for them. What would they say then? “Well, we can totally take away the pre-existing condition protections if you vote more of us into office!”

My understanding is that the end of vote-a-rama, which has not started yet (there are still 10 hours of pre VAR debate scheduled), is the end of all mandatory debating processes. So the bill as it comes out of that process will be the final bill, with no additional debate. They may need to get a CBO score for money, not coverage, if they don’t already have it.

The House can take it up “immediately.” I don’t honestly know what “immediately” looks like in House-time. But I think yes, it would be conceivable that a bill passes the Senate, passes the House, and is signed by the president all in the same day. I have no idea if this has ever happened, and there may be something preventing it that I’m not aware of. Apologies for my lack of definitive answer.

1025

I just looked it up and they are supposed to have a CBO money score (which requires legislative text) 28 hours before a vote.

1026

If they don’t, they have to meet the 60 vote threshold, because a reconciliation bill out of the Senate needs to match or exceed the savings of the House bill, which was either 119 billion or 133 billion.

Also, the preliminary estimate is around 130 billion in savings, but GOP now saying they might add some opioid funding, which would potentially not hit the savings required.

1027

And now I’m hearing that they don’t have to hit the 28 hour mark because this bill won’t have been reported out of committee. GAH!

1028

Naturally - because up until now they didn’t do things in a way then that would give the public time to react, they don’t have to do it now either. :mad:

1029

43 Democrat cowards just voted “present” on single-payer.

1030

Continuing the farce that this process has become, several GOP Senators are planning to vote for a so-called “skinny repeal” if they can get a guarantee that the bill will not actually become law. Considering that nothing else has been able to get through the Senate, this means despite any guarantees, the most likely outcome seems to me that the Senate will pass the “skinny repeal”, that the conference with the House will go nowhere, and that the House will then pass the skinny repeal as written, where it will be signed into law by a failed businessman turned successful reality TV actor playing a good businessman.

To recap, the bill that will eventually be passed today or tomorrow morning will have been written literally over lunch by a bunch of people who haven’t bothered to explain what’s in it, might not know, and cannot justify in any sort of reasonable legislative process. It’s likely to have all sorts of unforeseen consequences and drafting errors. This cruel, senseless, shambolic process is the GOP’s best answer to the healthcare system that takes up nearly 1/6 of our economy and affects every last one of us, despite over seven years of claiming they could fix everything wrong with the healthcare system very easily.

1031

You mean the Democratic Senators who chose not to play into a political sham offered by Republicans? Probably the wisest response, politically speaking.

1032

You have to remember the most important part; When will the tax breaks for the top earners kick in? I need to know when I can get a new Porche, and some new gold-plated golf clubs.

1033

Cite?

1034

Well, I’m sure people doing things on the record are pretty upset at being called cowards by an anonymous person on an internet message board.

1035

IMO, the four Democrats and Senator King did the right thing by voting no, instead of the weasel vote.

1036
1037

Be sure to call them and tell them, instead of the weasel post. I can provide phone numbers!

1038

An update, for what it’s worth:

We-ell, rumors are a-flyin’ about what they want to add to the sham bill, how they can force the House to take it into conference, etc. Several Senators seem gobsmacked that they can’t force a conference, which is fairly amusing (or would be if they weren’t trying to fucking kill people).

McCain says he won’t vote skinny if it’s only based on an assurance by the House that they’ll go to conference. Expect him to vote for it.

Everyone else is acting real squirrelly. Most reports are that they don’t yet have the votes, but we don’t know what that’s based on or who that might mean.

They were trying to craft a cadaverous bill that included several of the items that have already been swatted by the parliamentarian, which baffles me. No idea what they think they are accomplishing with that.

Speaking of the parliamentarian, she said today that part of the AHCA/BCRA that would allow states to waive EHBs (essential health benefits) was not Byrd compliant.

She has not yet ruled on the Cruz amendment. That keeps being withheld from her, apparently, which is interesting.

Orrin Hatch says they aren’t passing anything. John Cornyn says they will pass the skinny and go to conference, and then says they will pass the skinny and the House might just vote.

The Senate really doesn’t want the skinny to stand, but no idea how they can guarantee how to force the House to act. I suppose they could put in a poison pill.

Debate hours, if they go straight through, would end at 8:30 ish. They could then vote on the attempted Trojan horse bill or vote-a-rama could start without there being an actual text other than the House-passed AHCA.

This shit is bananas. B-A-N-A-N-A-S.

1039

Nothing there about Democrats being cowards.

1040

I was curious how this was being covered in the conservative bubble.

A quick glance at Fox News and Drudge suggests…it isn’t. Which I guess makes sense, since the clusterfuck is sort of bad for the GOP.