My ballot (as usual for me, in order of merit, tho for voting purposes you don’t need to emulate me). Note I timeline fairly heavily (which means more contemporary players get a boost over comparable old timers, with the 1947 color line being my rough transition point):
Frank Robinson
Mel Ott
Roberto Clemente
[small gap]
Al Kaline
Reggie Jackson
[small gap]
Tony Gwynn
Ichiro Suzuki
Larry Walker
[gap]
Dwight Evans
[timeline gap]
Paul Waner
[just missed]
Harry Heilmann
Sam Crawford
Sammy Sosa
I have Big Frank over Ott mainly because of the ballpark effects. Yes, Ott took advantage of his home ball park (the short foul lines at the Polo Grounds) in a way that few great players ever have, and he deserves credit for that. But put him in any other park and I'm not sure he keeps all of his value (note that [his other offensive numbers](http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=ottme01&year=Career&t=b&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#hmvis) were better on the road tho, tons more doubles...). Since they are otherwise razor-close, Robbie gets the top nod.
I have Gwynn over Ichiro (two very very comparable players), but it's insanely close. I have no issue with giving Suzuki Japanese league credit, but Gwynn's peak is a bit more impressive to me.
Larry Walker will likely suffer the fate of other Denver players (such as Todd Helton), both here and on the actual HoF ballot (as he indeed already has)...shame.
At the end, I put Paul Waner over everyone else mainly because most of the data we could use to crunch defensive numbers from back then have been lost forever to time. Given the current state of the art metrics and a time machine, and he probably soars over most every contemporary with the glove. I remain a bit suspicious of Heilmann's offensive numbers. Sosa has a better peak than the other candidates for the last slot, but precious little outside his peak.
Except WAR is park-adjusted and he still was worth almost 70 wins. That’s not a hall of famer to you? That’s more than Tony Gwynn, and almost nobody disputes his election.
WAR is just one component. OPS+ is also park-adjusted, and Walker’s 141 is pretty impressive. He’s a borderline candidate…if he gets in someday, that’s ok with me. He’s not a no-doubter, that’s all.
The problem (which many HoF voters are apparently emulating) is to completely cornfield away the statistical record of anybody who played in Denver, “just because” it inflates hitter’s stats. Of course it does, and nobody is denying that. But you can’t just reflexively throw the baby out with the bathwater, esp. when we have ways of adjusting for that (as the last few replies have indicated).
Roberto Clemente
Mel Ott
Frank Robinson
Reggie Jackson
Tony Gwynn
Ichiro
Al Kaline
Dave Winfield
I considered putting Gary Sheffield on here, as his name popped up in the BBRef JAWS list, but I can’t really say that he was an outfielder. Multipositional ballot for him, I think.
Frank Robinson
Roberto Clemente
Mel Ott
Al Kaline
Reggie Jackson
Larry Walker
Harry Heilmann
Ichiro Suzuki
Tony Gwynn
Dave Winfield
This is actually as hard ballot towards the end, and I made a lot of calls by simply giving more credit to the guy who didn’t play during the segregated era. Sorry, Sam Crawford.
Mel Ott
Roberto Clemente
Frank Robinson
Al Kaline
Reggie Jackson
Larry Walker
Tony Gwynn
Ichiro Suzuki
Harry Heilmann
Paul Waner
When I was growing up as a Brewers fan in the late 1970s, I hated Reggie Jackson – in part because of what I perceived as his ego, and in part because he played for the hated Yankees. But, I can’t argue with him being one of baseball’s biggest stars of the 70s, even if he likely stuck around for a few years too long.
I know that Walker’s detractors point to playing in Colorado for his offensive numbers, but I always loved how he played. Plus, he had a cannon of an arm, and could throw people out at first base from right field.
Ichiro’s batting is one-dimensional, but he’s another whom I’ve always respected, and I’m factoring in what he accomplished in Japan before coming to the States.
The only thing I knew about Heilmann was his nickname, “Slug,” and the fact that he was the Hall of Fame card set for the APBA baseball game when I was in high school. Looking at his stats and other info, he had a pretty impressive run as a hitter – 10 straight seasons of hitting .320 or better, with four batting titles.
Waner is another about whom I knew little. He hit .336 as a rookie, hit .300 thirteen times, won 3 batting titles, and was in the top 5 of MVP voting (winning once) four times.
When Sheffield pouted his way out of Milwaukee, accusing the team of racism for moving him to third base in order to start Bill Spiers at shortstop, I soured on the guy. That said, he was very young at that time, and he may well have matured into a respectable person, but that’s the enduring image that’s stuck in my mind for 25 years.
Sheffield was always kind of an ass, but oh well. He helped a team win a World Series and won a lot of games.
He didn’t make my list because he’s simply not good enough. His statistics look as good as Mel Ott or Harry Heilmann or whomever, but it’s an illusion of context because they came in an extremely hitting-heavy era, and have to be offset a little by his lack of defensive value.
Sheffield and Suzuki are about even in terms of career WAR, but I wholeheartedly endorse Suzuki and not Sheffield because
I think the fact Suzuki was a NPB superstar and didn’t come to MLB until he was 28 has to be considered.
In part connected to that, Suzuki had a higher peak. Ichiro had years where BB-ref credits him with 9.1 and 7.7 WAR, both seasons better than any that Sheffield had.
Sheffield would not be the worst player ever elected to the real HOF, and wouldn’t be the worst player elected to THIS HOF, but he’s one of those guys where I struggle to come up with a reason why he has to be on my list. IF you just go by analytical stuff, well, why not Vladdy Guerrero or Dwight Evans or a bunch of other guys? At least with Ichiro you have the impact he had on bringing Asian position players over to MLB, his MVP Award, his holding the season hits record, his profane All Star game speeches, stuff like that.
Mel Ott
Roberto Clemente
Frank Robinson
Tony Gwynn
Ichiro Suzuki
Paul Waner
Al Kaline
Reggie Jackson
Tony Oliva
Sam Crawford
Reggie always seemed more of a “second DH” than a third outfielder, but he did play most of his games in RF, so he gets the nod. Maybe it’s because Tony starred in the first MLB game I ever attended and was at his peak around then, but Oliva seems to be underrated (if not forgotten) when the greats are discussed. Tiebreaker for “Wahoo” Sam Crawford was his nickname.
Interesting point; Olivia was in his twilight when I first started following baseball, so I never really knew a lot about him; I’d agree that his name isn’t much mentioned when the stars of the 1960s are discussed today.
Looking at his stats on Baseball Reference, it looks like he has 8 very good seasons ('64-'71), which included three batting titles, and two second-place finishes in MVP voting. But, they also only give him a WAR of 6+ in three seasons, and it sounds like injuries cut short his productivity.
And, looking at his “similarity scores,” he comes out most similar to several guys who are in the “Hall of Very Good” – Carl Furillo, Gus Bell, Andy Pafko, and Pedro Guerrero. I’ve been re-reading Bill James’ “Historical Baseball Abstract” (the 2001 version), and he ranks Oliva at #21 among right fielders.
That said: you like who you like. Hell, I very nearly put Gorman Thomas on my center fielder list; I know he really has no business being listed in the top 50 center fielders, much less the top 10, but I loved the guy.
Frank Robinson
Roberto Clemente
Mel Ott
Al Kaline
Tony Gwynn
Reggie Jackson
Larry Walker
Ichiro Suzuki
Harry Heilmann
Shoeless Joe Jackson
This might have been the toughest call yet. Shoeless Joe makes my ballot because he didn’t get voted in on the LF ballot and apparently played enough RF to be listed as one on BBRef. I do feel weird leaving Dave Winfield off, but after looking at his stats he didn’t have as many MVP caliber seasons as I would have thought. Really considered Vlad, Dewey, Sosa, and Sheffield, too.
As an aside, the guy ranked higher than I would have ever imagined on the BBRef JAWS list is #28, Jack Clark. Looking at his numbers, I think he’s a guy who was just valued differently based on his era. Teams today would kill to have a guy with those stats in RF. His OPS was consistently outstanding.
Hell, I very nearly put Gorman Thomas on my center fielder list; I know he really has no business being listed in the top 50 center fielders, much less the top 10, but I loved the guy.