The St. Louis Cardinals Choke/Houston Astros Comeback Thread

Cafe Society
1

One week, ago, this was what the top of the NL Central looked like:

Team … Wins - Losses … Games Behind the Leader

St. Louis 80-69 –
Cincinnati 74-77 7
Houston 72-78 8.5

Tonight, it now looks like this:

St. Louis 80-76 –
Houston 79-78 1.5

Yes, in seven days the Cardinals have lost seven straight games, and Houston has won seven straight games. The Cardinals have six games left, the Astros five.

No team has ever blown a lead like this, ever. And if they blow it, it’s virtually certain the wild card will not save them; the wild card leader, now Los Angeles, is three games up on St. Louis and even if they collapse Philadelphia’s two up as well.

I mean, this race was over. Eight and a half up with 14 to go is over, finito, the fat lady is singing - but, in this case, it wasn’t over. If the Astros actually manage to come back - and they still need to win some ball games to do so - this will be the most insanely awesome choke/comeback in a major league pennat race, ever, by far.

Can it be done? Let’s find out! Hoo hoo!

2

RickJay, as I sit here in a Cardinals shirt, I’m tempted to say “Screw you.”

But I can’t do it, because we stink on ice.

I just made the comment at Viva El Birdos that the 1964 Phillies have to be cheering on the Astros right now. If TLR manages to ride this team to a collapse the likes of which we haven’t seen since Gene Mauch’s Phils imploded, his Hall of Fame career is going to go up in a puff of smoke.

The list of reasons why this season has gone to hell in a hula hoop is lengthy, but here’s a start:

  1. Bad offseason moves - Sanders and Grudzielanek were sent packing in favor of Larry Bigbie (hasn’t played much) and Aaron Miles (career AAA player), too much money was spent on Braden Looper and Juan Encarnacion, and Anthony Reyes was passed up for a starting spot in favor of Sidney Ponson (4-4, 5.24 ERA in 14 games before being DFA.)

  2. Injury mishandling - Mark Mulder had what everyone but Dr. George Paletta and Barry Weinberg identified as shoulder problems, Edmonds was thrown under the bus for not trying to play with post-concussion syndrome while the team refused to DL him, Eckstein was rushed back and Reyes was skipped in the rotation for a sore arm he didn’t have. Meanwhile, Isringhausen was run out to the

  3. Meddling with players - Anthony Reyes has the potential to be a #2 starter. TLR and Duncan, though, demanded that he start throwing a 2-seam fastball to fit their “pitch to contact” mantra despite Reyes not being a groundball pitcher. Reyes has been jerked around all year because of it, and it’s hurt his growth. Ponson got DFA (and rightly so) because he was out of shape and had no stamina, but because of his veteran status the coaching staff didn’t do anything to correct the problem.

  4. Jason Marquis. Do I even have to explain this one? At one point, he led the NL in wins with an ERA of almost 6.

  5. Bullpen - The relief corps consists of two LOOGYs who can’t get guys out, a Reds castoff, a future starter who should have been starting, the inconsistent Babyface Thompson, an overpriced reliever (Blooper) and Izzy, who hasn’t been right all year.

If this team reaches the playoffs, the mantra is going to be “Reyes and Carp and pray for tarp,” because there are only 2 starters who can be successful. Suppan has been average, but he’s not a top of the rotation guy.

3

If it does happen Philly fans can rest easy, seeing as how they currently hold the distinction for biggest choke (in 1964 they were up 6 1/2 with 12 to go and blew it).

4

The Reds could still take out both of them.

Am I wrong in remembering that the worst record to win a division was the Mets in 1973, 83-79?

5

[QUOTE=Frank]
The Reds could still take out both of them.

Am I wrong in remembering that the worst record to win a division was the Mets in 1973, 83-79?
[/QUOTE]

You are, but only because it happened last year: Padres won the NL West at 82-80.

6

[QUOTE=brianjedi]
You are, but only because it happened last year: Padres won the NL West at 82-80.
[/QUOTE]

Ah. Well, living in Denver, I’ve never paid too much attention to who wins the NL West. I’m pretty sure who it won’t be.

7

Just noticed: we’ve reached “bottom corner of ESPNEWS” status.

Additions to the list:

  1. “Upgrades” from the DFA list - Jeff Weaver, Preston Wilson and Jose Vizcaino. All three of them just scream “fantastic addition,” don’t they?

  2. The Junior Spivey Experiment - Spivey was toast last year, so why did we sign him to play for (horrible) AAA Memphis all year and barely hit .200?

  3. “We don’t have the money” - Ownership built a new ballpark with more revenue streams, sold the season out in about 7 hours, yet they can’t find any money to spend on the ballclub? C’mon, we’re not that stupid. They found the money to get McGwire and Walker at the deadline in past years, paid Albert Pujols the money he’s earned and gave $21 million to Instant Breakfast to play bad outfield defense and strike out 120 times.

  4. Trading young players - OK, this one goes back to the start of last season, when then-25 year old Danny Haren (14-13, 4.11 ERA in 2006) was traded for then-28 year old Mark Mulder (6-7, 7.14 ERA in 2006). That was one of the brightest moves in the history of trades. Haren was young, cheap and good, and Mulder is older, expensive and not as good.

8

I know this will sound odd considering my name, but I’m hoping the Cardinals DO piss this thing away. They really have no business being in the playoffs to begin with, because they aren’t a good team. You can really say the same thing about the Astros and Reds to, but somebody has to win the division.

The only thing that’s kept the Cardinals in it for this long is because the National League is a swirling black vortex of SUCK this year.

And I have to say, I don’t see things getting better next year (for the Cardinals anyway. The NL really can’t be this bad next year, can it?). There aren’t going to be any free agents who would be worth spending money on who would significantly improve the team. There aren’t any prospects that can bring in anything worthwhile in a trade. As was noted earlier, Looper and Encarnacion were given stupid contracts.

When you consider that, along with the improvements made by the Brewers and the Reds, and I can’t help but say that the Cardinals’ window is shut for a couple of seasons at least.

cf’75

9

[QUOTE=brianjedi]
Just noticed: we’ve reached “bottom corner of ESPNEWS” status.

Additions to the list:

  1. “Upgrades” from the DFA list - Jeff Weaver, Preston Wilson and Jose Vizcaino. All three of them just scream “fantastic addition,” don’t they?
    [/QUOTE]

I quite honestly was not aware that Preston Wilson was still in baseball. Or even alive, for that matter. Maybe I’m confusing him with another Wilson.

Jeff Weaver is like a pitching bomb.

But I agree; the really dumb deal was flipping Haren for Mulder. I can understand dealing Sanders and Grudz’'k, but Danny Haren was the kind of pitcher you keep, or trade only for a Grade A young player like, well, Danny Haren. That was just a phenomenally stupid, stupid trade, and that’s not just hindsight; it struck me as stupid at the time.

But the story here is not what happened six months ago, it’s what’s happening now. The fact is that a week ago, whatever their earlier mistakes, St. Louis had this division gift wrapped and under the tree. And now, holy shit. EVery team that has ever choked big time - the '04 Yankees, the '87 Blue Jays, the '64 Phils - has to be cheering for the Astros because this choke will go down as the choke of all time.

10

Well, being entirely facetious here, but I’ve gotta imagine poor old Preston Wilson must be developing a some sort of complex. Picked up by the Astros, they have one good month, then tank. Traded to the Cards, they go from a comfortable division lead to the brink of one of the biggest slides in history.

I like the Astros, but frankly, during most of the season if the bottom third of their lineup could have actually made a hit every once in a while, if Morgan Ensberg had not foolishly tried to play through his shoulder problems for more than a month, and if the entire offence didn’t take the day off every time Clemens pitched, we might not even be having this conversation.

Er, I mean, go 'Stros!

11

I figured it was just the suckiness of the Kansas City Royals (who only needed to win five of their last 13 to stay above 100 losses for the season, and have now lost 8 in a row) spreading eastward.

12

[QUOTE=RickJay]
EVery team that has ever choked big time - the '04 Yankees, the '87 Blue Jays, the '64 Phils - has to be cheering for the Astros because this choke will go down as the choke of all time.
[/QUOTE]

I think the '04 Yankees go in a seperate category.

–The playoffs are just a different animal altogether.
–They weren’t just one game away from winning, they were one inning away.
–With Rivera on the mound.
–They blew another late inning lead the next day.
–With Rivera on the mound (actually, it was tied when he came in).
–They lost to the Red Sox. If this were the Cubs instead of the Astos it might be a different story.

13

[QUOTE=RickJay]
I quite honestly was not aware that Preston Wilson was still in baseball. Or even alive, for that matter. Maybe I’m confusing him with another Wilson.

Jeff Weaver is like a pitching bomb.

But I agree; the really dumb deal was flipping Haren for Mulder. I can understand dealing Sanders and Grudz’'k, but Danny Haren was the kind of pitcher you keep, or trade only for a Grade A young player like, well, Danny Haren. That was just a phenomenally stupid, stupid trade, and that’s not just hindsight; it struck me as stupid at the time.

But the story here is not what happened six months ago, it’s what’s happening now. The fact is that a week ago, whatever their earlier mistakes, St. Louis had this division gift wrapped and under the tree. And now, holy shit. EVery team that has ever choked big time - the '04 Yankees, the '87 Blue Jays, the '64 Phils - has to be cheering for the Astros because this choke will go down as the choke of all time.
[/QUOTE]

The rationalization from management for the Mulder deal was that we needed a lefty in the rotation since that was our weakness against Boston in 2004. (Funny, I thought our weakness was bad baserunning, Edmonds and Rolen not hitting and a weak bullpen.)

The real reason is that La Russa doesn’t like rookies. Pujols only got his shot because Bobby Bonilla was hurt and couldn’t break camp with the team. Reyes and Wainwright have both been good enough to start the entire year, Haren was traded for Mulder, and the farm system is pretty barren because prospects were dealt for veterans.

That’s going to change, because Jeff Luhnow is now in charge of the farm system as well as player procurement and development, and his recent draft picks are starting to climb the ladder.

Another addition to the list:

  1. Trading Luna for Belliard - Hector Luna was cheap, not horrible and could play five positions. Belliard is expensive, not very good and is only a second baseman. If the team wasn’t dedicated to playing Luna every day, they could have resigned Grudzie (he only wanted $2 mil!) instead of limping along with a Luna-Miles platoon and then trading for Ronnie Belliard.
14

Well, you Cards fans may think you have it bad, but I’m telling you, the Texas Rangers do this about every other year. Come out strong, look like they have a playoff spot sealed up and … disappear for no discernable reason.

15

[QUOTE=fachverwirrt]
I think the '04 Yankees go in a seperate category.
[/QUOTE]

I concur. Given everything, I find it hard to beleive (hard, not impossible) that anything will top that.

16

I’m dying here. When Marquis melts down tonight, it’ll be eight three game losing streaks. I’m kind of with cardsfan1975 on this. I don’t want to see us get totally embarassed in the playoffs and it’ll give Walt a chance to totally revamp the team. I only hope he can work magic like Whitey did in 1982.

17

Correction. It looks like Reyes starts tonight.

18

I’ve never liked La Russa. All my brothers, friends, etc. always called me mad. Now they’re starting to agree with me. Not that Jocketty doesn’t get some of the blame here. I remember defending the Mulder trade last year on these boards - color me dead wrong.

19

[QUOTE=brianjedi]
The rationalization from management for the Mulder deal was that we needed a lefty in the rotation since that was our weakness against Boston in 2004. (Funny, I thought our weakness was bad baserunning, Edmonds and Rolen not hitting and a weak bullpen.)
[/QUOTE]

Don’t feel too bad. Every team gets into this “we need a lefty in the starting rotation” thing. I do not understand it, never have, never will.

I can understand why you want a lefty in a the bullpen, to give you a situational option, but it’s irrelevant whether you have any lefties in the ROTATION, as starting pitchers are not used situationally. It is utterly insane to making personnel decisions around a starting pitcher on the basis of whether he’s right or left handed; there is almost no amount of present or future performance worth giving up for that.

It is of course conceivable that you could get into a playoff matchup with a team that’s weak against lefties, but it’s remarkably unlikely this would ever make that much of a difference. I mean, the Cardinals were swept in the 2004 Series; would having a lefty starter have mattered?

Hmmm. La Russa has managed SIX Rookies of the Year, which strikes me as being a remarkable total even for a guy who’s managed as long as he has.

20

[QUOTE=RickJay]
I can understand why you want a lefty in a the bullpen, to give you a situational option, but it’s irrelevant whether you have any lefties in the ROTATION, as starting pitchers are not used situationally.
[/QUOTE]
Not according to Tom Glavine (himself a left-handed pitcher), who explains in his book Baseball for Everybody that, because batters face right-handed pitchers so much more often throughout their lives, they’re less used to how a ball is thrown by a lefty and have to make an adjustment.

For what it’s worth.
Anyway, I still have hope for the Cards. They haven’t been playing badly lately, so much as just not quite well enough to win. But oh, what a slumpy season they’ve had. Can they pull out of this one in time? Maybe.