I was poring over a bit of parchment, looking at that part that says “He shall from time to time …” etc, etc. That clause ends with a semicolon, and is followed by another clause that no one ever quotes,
… he may, on extraordinary Occasions, convene both Houses, or either of them, and in Case of Disagreement between them, with Respect to the Time of Adjournment, he may adjourn them to such Time as he shall think proper;
The president may have the nominal authority to board up Congress. This is very scary, if anyone happens to notice it in there.
I’m assuming that the "“in case of disagreeement” clause is significant. If House and Senate agree as to when the session ends (and they always do) the President has no authority to decide for them.
The co-author (in actuality, the sole author) of Art of the Deal thinks that the SOTU is Trump’s biggest weakness. He’ll cave on the shutdown rather than miss an opportunity to bloviate in front of an audience, 50% of whom will applaud.
I was thinking of the ones physically in the room – the ones whose applause would feed Trump’s ego. So that’s 535 legislators, plus cabinet, Supremes, JCS, staff, guests, invited inspirational story props, hangers-on, lackeys & toadies.
“Overall, 34 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s job performance in a survey conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That’s down from 42 percent a month earlier and nears the lowest mark of his two-year presidency. The president’s approval among Republicans remains close to 80 percent, but his standing with independents is among its lowest points of his time in office.”
That last line contains a bit of info… Republican support dropped below 80%, expanded upon here:
“Trump may be popular overall with Republicans, but a sizable share holds him responsible for the current situation. Almost 3 in 10 Republicans think Trump bears a great deal of responsibility, while 73 percent of his party says he’s at least partly responsible.”
Thanks! Though I could have sworn it wasn’t there earlier - maybe it was just added (I think the list of polls is in the order of the date the poll data was taken, not when they were published).
Technically, using actual math, if you go back about 5 weeks, when he was at +42.5%, it works out to a 7.5% drop (3.3 percentage points, as a percentage of 42.5).
The RCP aggregate now has his disapproval at 55.8%, highest since January 12, 2018.
Approval is at 40.8%, Lowest since a quick dip to 40.6% on Sept 11, 2018 or going back to another dip in March.
The government shutdown is not being kind to Trump’s numbers. Expect a temper tantrum in the Whitehouse. No wonder his communications staff have basically barricaded themselves in their offices.
Rasmussen polls is widely believed to have a pro-Republican bias.
That being said, the most recent of their polls has Trump at 56% disapprove. This is the highest disapproval number for Trump in Rasmussen since 23 Jan 2018.
As Benjamin Wittes pointed out today, the thing to keep in mind is that only one president in he last seventy-five years has polled lower than Trump at this point in his first term.
Two years later Ronald Reagan went on to lose all but 49 states.
Except, Reagan showed an approval rating in the positive range (>50%) for nearly the entire first year of his presidency, while CFSG has never polled above the brief 47.8% spike 5 days after his inauguration (per 538). Between mid May '17 and mid January '18, CFSG never rose above 40%, which is a consistent suckfulness that not even Ford was able to maintain. CFSG has been down so goddam long that it looks like up to him.
