Just to be clear, if my other post wasn’t. I meant, “People here for the most part seem reasonably intelligent, and I see no reason not to think that most of the public is also.”
You were right the first time. 
Is there any quantity of certifiably true data, both in variety and in completeness, which would convince you otherwise?
That is to say, do you believe that this is true because of reality or because your mind refuses to contemplate the horror of the reality of living on a planet where nearly everyone is slightly above the level of a talking dog?
I think that’s a very bad idea. Let’s assume that the Chief Justice defines a bright line between legal and illegal, and the trial proceeds in such a way that it is clear the President did or did not cross that line. And all this unfolds in open session, in public, broadcast around the world.
And then the Senate votes in the other direction. What then? If the President is found guilty when the evidence shows he did not cross the bright line laid down by the Chief Justice, does he get to demand a do over? Does the Chief Justice overrule 2/3 of the Senate and hand down a directed verdict of acquittal? If the President is acquitted, despite the evidence, do we get to impeach him over and over, or is there some sort of double jeopardy attached?
Either way, the process of impeachment slips from being the most potent weapon in the system of checks and balances to an even bigger dumpster fire than we’re already in the middle of.
It’s not potent. Even when hundreds of thousands of United States citizens died in a war largely fought to make men free, and the President, Andrew Johnson, tried to reverse that, he got an acquittal – in a vote that a liberal president, in my lifetime, considered a Profile in Courage. And even when the President tried to get a foreign government to go after his opponent’s son, precisely zero Republicans supported an impeachment investigation.
Potent is when a majority can throw the chief executive out of office due to loss of confidence. It happened to Lord North. The American revolutionaries thought they could do better. I don’t think so.
If Trump is impeached and acquitted, as now seems likely, his unchecked hubris will be confirmed as acceptable to our system. Can’t get more impotent than that outside of actual sex.
It will get them on record as to who is for the rule of law in this country and who is willing to do anything for political power.
Republicans set to officially lift those goalposts and move them again. The new talking point is that they accept that a quid pro quo happened, but that it was somehow fine, or at least not impeachable.
Which makes it strange that they fought that there was a quid pro quo in the first place if there was nothing wrong with it.
*
"A growing number of Senate Republicans are ready to acknowledge that President Trump used U.S. military aid as leverage to force Ukraine to investigate former vice president Joe Biden and his family as the president repeatedly denies a quid pro quo.
In this shift in strategy to defend Trump, these Republicans are insisting that the president’s action was not illegal and does not rise to the level of an impeachable offense as the Democratic-led House moves forward with the open phase of its probe."*
It was just a stupid sacrificial talking point anyway. The quid pro quo wasn’t the core of what was wrong with Trump’s behavior, it was the window dressing. However they want to [play with it, it’s still saying “Look over here, and not at the actual issue”. And “not illegal”, whether true or false, is more of the same misdirection. Fuck them, they’re not fooling thinking people with that bullshit.
Rachel Bitecofer on Pelosi’s strategy and how the GOP fucked themselves by demanding the House Investigation be public:
(emphasis mine, JT)
A quid pro quo is not needed to charge the crime of soliciting assistance for a federal campaign from a foreign government.
A quid pro quo is needed to charge the crime of bribery, consisting of a government official refraining from performing a legal duty until a thing of value is delivered to them.
True. But we have a lot of the GOP on the record emphatically staying that there was no quid pro quo. They will have to address that they have changed their minds, and if that was their line then, and we now know that this line was crossed, how they can still support this president.
The Republicans have wanted it to be public all along; they’ve known for a while there would be impeachment proceedings. This is what they want. What they’re concerned about now is the timing.
Now that it’s going to the inquiry stage, the GOP will most likely start pushing for a vote. “If Democrats have the evidence, then let’s put it to a vote now. Let’s put it to a vote and let the Senate put it to a trial.”
Yes, the tactic could backfire. But, I think the strategy all along has been to push impeachment to a final vote in the Senate, at which point the Senate acquits and then makes Trump politically bullet-proof.
However, if some new outrage crops up, or the economy spirals downward, then Trump’s impeachment is in the hands of Senators more concerned about their political futures than his and their party’s.
They claimed they did but it does not benefit them in any way.
Wanna bet? “You’ve already seen the so-called ‘evidence’ in the House proceedings. All in favor of conviction? All in favor of acquittal? Acquitted!” [BANG]
I think the word she’s looking for is “exacerbate,” but I’m not sure even that’s the right word since it normally means “make something worse.” Or maybe she means “from the GOP viewpoint.”
Like the recent offers from the White House to aid Senators’ reelection campaigns.
Yeah, I think she corrected that phrasing in a later tweet.
McConnell isn’t in charge of the trial, so your scenario couldn’t even play out as you expressed it. The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court is in charge.
One thing making my brain pan itch: what does Darth Putin get out of this? It would appear that he wants the Ukraine deal to go through, as it helps his guy win. But if Ukraine gets those Javelin missiles, Russian tanks will blow up with Russian soldiers in them. So, seems to me, Pooty Poot must at least publicly oppose the deal, unless his grip on power is so absolute and total, he need not worry.
OR, he doesn’t expect them to be used. Because a cease-fire deal is in the works, one that essentially gives him whatever he wants in terms of settling with Ukraine and maybe even getting the sanctions lifted when Ukraine confesses to interfering with US elections. Even with those missiles, how much of a chance does Ukraine have against Russia? Zero, zip, zilch, nada damn thing.
So, Russian keeps Crimea and whatever chunk of Eastern Ukraine they want, Russia is innocent of interference, sanctions come off. Maybe even Tillerson goes back to remake that Exxonent Arctic Adventure for that sweet, sweet light crude! The missiles never get used, maybe don’t even get unpacked.
So, all Vlad is saying is: Give peace a chance…
<snip>
The withholding of the military aid from the period it was approved by Congress (some of it as far back as last February) to September 11, 2019, forced Zelenskyy to the table and to make a deal more favorable to Putin than he would otherwise have had to make. So to that extent, the benefits inured entirely to Putin.
I think you basically put your finger on it with the rest of what you posted.
Moscow Mitch has already affirmatively stated in public that if the House votes articles of impeachment, then he expects a trial to last for at least 6 to 8 weeks. He will run it 6 days a week, Mondays through Saturdays. So the scenario you envision doesn’t look like it will come to pass.
Interestingly, if it goes like that, the person who will likely benefit the most is Joe Biden. All the senators in the Democratic primary race will be forced to choose either to continue running their campaigns while absenting themselves from the removal portion of the impeachment proceedings (not wise) or forego campaigning to attend the impeachment proceedings (perilous). This will likely occur during the crucial period in the run-up from the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary in February to the Super Tuesday primaries in March.
What will Sanders, Warren, Klobuchar, Harris, Booker and Bennet do?
The Repubs have shown their strategy will be, “this is just a continuance of the ongoing harassment/investigation of Trump since he was elected. Nothing but grandstanding and an attempt to overturn the election by the Dems.” And enough of the public will go with that, that Repub congresscritters can go along with that.
To quote a great man — “SO SAD!”