In the time of Watergate there weren’t a million instantaneous sources to watch or listen to the ongoing hearings, let alone a million commentators and pundits to tell you after the fact what transpired and what it meant. It’s hard for people who grew up after the first Gulf War in 1990 to imagine a time before CNN created the true 24/7 news cycle. Can any of us even remember a time before the internet and smartphones when you had to buy a newspaper, or listen to scheduled radio/tv broadcasts to find out what was going on?
THAT is a big difference between today’s media coverage and Watergate in 1974. People who aren’t watching the impeachment hearings on TV can still be listening to live coverage from many places. Or they can read about it later in the day from countless online sources.
It’s misleading to draw comparisons with Watergate. With Comey and Mueller, yes. Those comparisons are valid.
Thank you. It looks it! I’ll have to wait for a better transcript, though. I struggled to read the photographed version provided by CNN and had to admit defeat at page 4. :o
Most wont stay glued. They will get highlights and spin. The number of people whose minds are not already made up is few and they are least likely to hang on every minute. Or watch or listen much in real time.
I have no confidence either way how this will impact them but think that anyone else who does is likely overconfident. Give it two weeks.
The only possible game changer I could possibly see at this point is John Bolton. If John Bolton comes out and says, “Look, Mr Chairman, let’s cut through the shit. You and I both know my views on your party. I frankly feel like Obama and the Democrats are a bunch of pussies. And I thought that by serving President Trump I’d finally have the chance to work with someone who could put some muscle into American foreign policy. However, as I found out, there is actually something worse than being a pussy; I found out that the President of the United States could actually turn out to be a traitor. Donald Trump is a traitor.”
If those words come out of John Bolton’s mouth, yes, maybe, possibly, a game changer. Short of that, it’s just an extension of Comey and Mueller.
Those words will not, publicly, come out of Bolton’s mouth, but I’d still be maybe a bit more willing to bet on impeachment support growing than dropping over the next two weeks. I’d bet against Trumps approval getting much below 38 though. And unless it did by a good margin the Senate Republicans are a lock for acquittal.
Trump comes away from this looking like…not such a nice guy. But that’s about as bad as it gets for Trump. We’ve had 3 years for the public to catch on and become outraged by all of the machinations of the Trump-Russia connections, and there’s never been a tipping point and there’s not going to be.
Shit, if I were Trump and the GOP, I’m actually looking at this platform as an opportunity to sully the Bidens. Yes, those who have been dutifully keeping up with this realize that the Biden’s work in Ukraine wasn’t illegal, but even the witnesses are acknowledging bad optics. If Trump’s goal was to come out of this smelling like a rose, he failed. But if his goal is to get mud on his opponent’s jersey, he will succeed bigly.
If Trump is out by Christmas, Biden has more than sufficient runway to get past the subject.
The average voter’s memory is only about two weeks:
Note the graph of popular polling. Each time the red and blue lines fly away from one another is right after one of the presidential debates.
Everyone saw Trump speaking and something like 80% of the population ran screaming towards Clinton. And then two weeks passed and they all started to forget. By the time of the next debate, they’d all forgotten again.
If the last debate had been a week closer to the vote, Clinton would have won. People would still remember the humans they were voting on, not just the party.
I don’t disagree with either of you, but I do think there could be some softening of Trump’s support as that part of the public paying attention sees the weakness of Trump’s position. The arguments excusing his conduct are poor, and those wielding the arguments are not coming off well.
Look at the reaction of the committee Republicans when the hearing audience bursts into applause for Yovanovitch:
Every day of public hearings so far, the Republicans have displayed petulance, boorishness, and a marked ineptitude:
Every day of public hearings so far, the Republican performance has raised the question ‘who on earth would volunteer to be identified with these malicious bunglers?’
Sondland: Imagine paying a million bucks just to put yourself in a position where you have to fuck Trump over or fuck yourself over even harder. That guy is so deep in the suck.
…and he paid to be there. Just wow.
And there are numerous witnesses who can corroborate that phone call, and attest to it being Trump on the line, speaking so loud all could hear.
At this point, does Sondland even testify next week? Very telling Trump is actively distancing himself from even knowing who Sondland is.
Every GOP talking point about whistleblowers and second hand info are going to implode by Wednesday. Office pool on what the next talking point will be? Sondland is a Democrat?
It’s a news cycle; it’s a cycle of bad news. It’s longer than Comey and Mueller, so the damage will be more sustained for a while, but we’re running out of time.
Allow me to explain:
The Democrats have an urgent desire to get this thing done by the end of the year. Why? Because some of the front-running members of the primary are senators, who would have to take time out of their campaigns to attend the impeachment trial – right before the primary. And Biden is going to continue to get smeared just as Trump is getting smeared.
It’s not just Trump that’s on trial; it’s Biden as well. It’s the House Democrats. Every day there isn’t a smoking gun or a knockout punch, regardless of Trump’s gradual popularity decline, is a day that he withstands the forces against him.
In the end, this will all come down to the mood of the country.
