The Trump-in-jail Prediction Thread

Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
1

This article in Forbes magazine sums up the charges Trump is facing and lists the maximum penalties–totaling 717 years in prison.

So the purpose of this thread is to have some fun.
Let’s predict how long Trump will be actually be sentenced to prision.

The Forbes article lists the theoretical punishments for all four trials.

  1. New York business fraud (136 years, max 4 year sentence for 34 counts)
  2. Mar a Lago secret documents (450 years max , for 41 charges )
  3. Georgia election re-count (76.5 years for 41 charges)
  4. Jan 6 conspiracy (only 55 years, for only 4 charges. Gee, I suppose this one just ain’t so important :slight_smile: )

That totals up to 717.5 years, or 26 million days. (actually, 26.172.325 days).
So now, let the fun begin!
My fellow Dopers, you who are the smartest and most clairvoyant people in the world: It is your duty to predict the future!
Let’s guess how many days Trump will actually be sentenced to spend in prison or house arrest. And, like the teacher always told you—Show your work.

I hope to return to this thread in 3 years—say, August 16 2026, assuming the trials will be completed by then. And on that date we shall declare a winner…the Doper who most accurately predicts the total number of days of sentencing (and with the right reasons).

The winner will receive bragging rights on the SDMB,. (and, if you ever happen to be near my house, a free felafel in pita from the food stand just down the street )

I will start the thread off with my own, perfect and infallible prediction:

Total days of jail sentences : ZERO .

My perfect and infallible math:
Trial 1( the New York real estate trial)—Trump will be found not guilty, only his accountants will be found guilty.
Trial 2( Mar a Lago documents). Judge Cannon will find procedural issues to dismiss half of the prosecution’s evidence. There will be three MAGA cultists on the jury, so the trial ends in a hung jury, and Cannon somehow declares that there is no need for a new trial. (I dunno how she can do this, but she’ll try)
Trials 3, and 4: (Georgia and Jan 6)There will be no guilty verdict, due to hung juries. (one MAGA cultist on each jury) The tense political atmosphere won’t allow for a re-trial, so Trump will walk free

2

So you’re only talking about time sentenced, right? Not how many days he actually spends in jail?

3

I’m thinking if he gets sentenced to jail time he’ll self combust in the courtroom and make a big stinking mess.
He’ll never serve a day.

But some poor schmuck gonna have to try and mop up that orange greasy spot in the floor.

And…the smell!
Good Lord!

4

Maybe they could put him in a barracks in the middle of an army base like that snitch in Godfather 2. And then he could draw a hot bath and have a little party to relax.

5

yes, unfortunately.
Because I expect Trump to get re-elected, and then pardon himself.
(even in the state cases)

6

How does he get out of the state charges if he is in jail? The governor of Georgia doesn’t have the power to pardon him under the Georgia constitution. Moreover, the Georgia parole board cannot have a hearing for a pardon in less than 5 years in prison under state law.

7

I dunno… but if he gets re-elected, he’ll write himself an executive order or something, giving him authority over state courts.
Let’s hope the Supreme Court doesn’t support him.

8

I’m going with a total combined sentence of 15 years (5475 days), from 2 guilt verdicts.

  • The documents case (even with Eileen Cannon this is a slam dunk, you have a recording of the accused committing the crime, and stating they know its a crime, what defense lawyer would fancy their chances of getting their client off in those circumstances?)
  • One of the two Jan 6th cases, most likely the Federal one IMO

The hush money case will either be a not-guilty or only guilty of a misdemeanor IMO.

I’m also stating that one of two things will end his prison sentence before those 15 years are up: The Grim Reaper, or a GOP president. The GOP president may or may not be DJT himself (and may or may not be elected in 2024). Though if he successfully pardons himself and a GOP appointed supreme court OKs it, that’s its, put a fork in the US democratic system because it is done. If a non-Trump GOP candidate wins in 2024 it would not guarantee a pardon, not because of any scruples on tbehalf of the GOP, simply because they would have won in the teeth of the most virulent attacks by Trump and may not feel like it (though a GOP president would be awful for America and still be a nail in the coffin of democratic government, it would be pretty funny to hear trumps reaction to Nauta getting a pardon but not him :slight_smile: )

Also should add the maximum sentence is almost never a good estimate of the actual sentence someone will receive, as discussed on Legal Eagle. Realistic upper limit for the documents case is more like 17-22 years (though even that is just an estimate):

9

I thought the purpose of this thread was to have some fun.

Dang.
That’s some dire predictions.

10

Do you mean the Geogia Supreme Court? Because the US Supreme Court doesn’t deal with state laws unless they are unconstitutional. Not seeing how convicting someone of racketeering is unconstitutional. I’m also thinking the US Supreme Court would be happy do be done with him.

I’m thinking that the army barracks thing could be a real possibility. No way they want to have him in a standard prision.

11

Could you clarify … by “free falafel”, do you mean a falafel that the food stand is
giving away, or a falafel that you’re going to pay for ?

12

I’ll have one too, please!

13

It’s on me!
('Cause it"s the cheapest felafel in town.)
But really good. :slight_smile:

14

He may be sentenced to jail time but he won’t go to jail. I predict that he will develop some “serious” medical conditions which will require home confinement in his mansion.

15

Wherever he is, he will remain a burdensome carbuncle on the ass of humanity until the day he dies.

Not fun, but true.

16

There’s something that make this harder to predict than it otherwise might be.

I understand that criminals very rarely get the max sentence lengths when convicted. There are sentencing guidelines where other factors are taken into account. Experts have opined that Trump is likely to get a relatively minimal sentence… for the first conviction. Subsequent convictions mean harsher sentences. So the exact order Trump gets his convictions will matter a lot, and I suspect Cannon will depart from the guidelines and give him something lighter than the guidelines normally state he should, so the timing of that trial compared to the others might be even more critical.

17

Mark Meadows has already petitioned to have the charges moved to fed court system.

18

But he is still facing state charges there, not federal charges there. He would only get a larger potential jury pool or possibly a sympathetic judge. Still a state conviction.

19

I’ll predict no jail sentences for any of the reasons listed above.

Additionally, if he actually is sentenced to significant jail time, I would not be surprised if he committed suicide (note: I’m not hoping for, or advocating for that but, all joking aside, I could see his mental state at that point being really bad).

But are they felafelly good?

20

He will never spend a day in the clink. Ever. Already his public statements are such that anyone else who made them would have their bail revoked.

I wonder whether McTurtle now wishes had twisted enough arms to get a conviction in the second impeachment.