If Trump wants the Fed to cut rates, he actually needs bad job numbers.
Given that true bad job numbers are bad for him during the midterms, he doesn’t actually want people to lose their job. But he actually does have a motive to push for bad published numbers, whether they’re true or not.
I actually think it’s more likely that they exaggerated the job losses, as all of it was basically during Biden’s term. Remember, this was for the 12 months ending March 2025. This would give Trump more ways to continue to blame Biden for the economy. In reality, not sure we can trust any economic data coming out of DC any more.
More curiously, July was a rise of 0.9%…and it’s now been revised down to 0.7%…
0.9% was in line with the sorts of numbers we were seeing in 2021, during the inflation spike. 0.7% is a more average price change.
That said, the alternatives to inflation are headcount cuts. If you can’t raise your prices, you cut your costs. Refusing the hire new people is a backend way of achieving a headcount cut. You just slowly reduce costs as natural quits and retirements pull your bottom line down.
People out on the street is an alternate form of deflationary force, since you can’t raise prices when the customer base is shrinking.
In general, inflation would be better for the economy, relative to what these numbers are signaling.
Of course, that all comes down to the question of whether the numbers are true?
Hmmmm…
Considering this board is rife with TONS of link-only posts eliciting absolutely zero requests for elaboration, no clue why mine’s being singled out. Anyway - simply a bio on CPI CEO (along with other CPI big wigs), in response to Moriarty’s post about the data from the CPI report.
FWIW, I did click on the link prior to @Northern_Piper 's post, and I had no idea what your point was supposed to be. (Still don’t.) It’s generally considered good form not to just post naked links.
I figured that was always the case but then after seeing particular posters doing it quite often (with oodles of clicks) I figured, meh, when in current Rome…but yeah I’ll definitely try not to get lazy like that, hence:
With the CPI issuing such a Debbie Downer of a report for Trump, I figured said messengers would be next to get replaced.