Well, if nothing else, Trump has united Canadians.
We’re about to see a full court press of propaganda to push people into wanting to declare war on Canada or Mexico. This is has been pretty much straight from Putin’s playbook.
His odds are lower than they used to be. He’s still a heavy favorite, but had Trump not been elected, Poilevre’s odds would have been 99 percent at worst. Now the Liberals can call his soft on Trump. So I’d now give him four chances in five.
Most definitely. And they’ll fall for it.
Canada and Mexico are in a tricky spot, there is perhaps an impossible needle to thread here. They can’t just roll over, but any pushback will be amplified as egregious retaliation provoking a physical conflict.
Well, yes and no. On another board, a few Quebecers are gleeful about annexation. Not because they want to join the US, but because they are sure that the US would not want Quebec. French-speaking, and not about to change that, and just likely to cause trouble if the US demands they use English to accord with the vast majority of Americans.
They don’t care about the ROC at all. If the US takes over the ROC and leaves Quebec alone, then they get what they have long wanted: independednce.
Now, that’s the view of only a couple of Quebecers on another message board, so it likely doesn’t mean much. But if a few think that way, there are likely others who don’t post to message boards.
No pushback would not stop Trump either, he can easily find an excuse for being offended.
I hope they take a moment to reflect on the absurdity of being this optimistic. Trump isn’t looking to take over part of Canada, he wants the whole thing. Quebecers think they are going to resist him by speaking French? That’s probably enough of an excuse for him to round people up right there, like he is doing to Spanish-speaking people in the US right now.
They’ll be deported to France. Or Haiti.
It might even be possible that Carney, should he become the liberal leader, could win this election, thanks to Trump.
Just a thought, but perhaps Trump is wanting Canadas support in his land grab of Greenland. And this tariff scare is just a way to get Canada to play along with his game. Its a fucked up and stupid plan. Thats what make me think this might actually be his plan.
I think his end game is Greenland. With climate change comes an opening up of the Artic for exploitation. He would need Canada to make it work (and stay out of the way). Its a stupid and dangerous way to ask for a favor, but then again look who we are talking about.
I take your point, but at the same time, the EU is in Trump’s cross-hairs because of some Trumpian grievance.
If the US imposes similar tariffs on the EU, I could see some coordination on responses.
You’re overthinking it. Trump does not have a plan. He just wants to have the biggest country. What happens to it once he has it is not his problem. He just needs the number. Bigger is better so if he has the biggest country, he also has the best. That is as far as his logic goes.
Don’t overthink it. Trump wants a big source of revenue to pay for extending his tax cuts. Mexico, Canada, and China are the US’s largest trading partners, so that’s where tariff revenue would be highest. China pays bribes: Mexico and Canada don’t. So China gets 10%, while our allies get 25%.
And why Canada, Mexico, and China? For the same reason Willie Sutton robbed banks: because that’s where the money is. Those three countries account for nearly half of all US imports, so they’re the ones that got held up.
Raising tariffs allows American businessmen to raise their prices and collect windfall profits. This is another example of Republican policies aimed at making rich people richer.
Not really. Adding 5% markup to a 25% tariff will likely result in lower sales for non-necessity items.
More likely (I think) is Trump lets this go a while then negotiates an end to tariffs. US merchants who were selling at a 25% markup due to the tariff will not drop prices back 25%. They can drop 15% and pocket the other 10% and look like a good-guy who lowered prices. And Trump will claim he lowered prices like he promised. MAGA will let him get away with that.
Saw this with COVID (e.g. some restaurants added a surcharge for the extra cleaning costs…after COVID they just kept those charges in place).
Except there’s a good chance some or all of their material inputs are being hit by said tariffs.
Strong agree, except maybe on China paying bribes (not saying you are wrong, just that I have not seen the evidence).
If the tariffs fail, it won’t be because Trump is controlled by our oligarchs. Oligarchs bow to the dictator, not vice-versa. If tariffs fail, it will be in the court of public opinion, and because the tariff-related job losses and inflation weren’t timed simultaneously with a tax cut.
I think @Little_Nemo is thinking of the protectionist advantage for the US competitors to Canadian manufacturers.
Suppose a Canadian manufacturer makes widgets, and a US manufacturer makes gidgets, that they sell to wholesalers or secondary manufacturers. Since widgets and gidgets can do the same thing, the Canadian manufactuer and the US manufacturer have to keep their prices competitive with each other.
Suppose up to now, the Canadian manufacturer is able to sell its widgets for US$100. The US manufacturer will want to sell its gidgets for about the same price.
But on February 4, the 25% tariff comes in. The Canadian widgets now sell for US$125.
The US manufacturer can immediately jack up its price, to US$120. Its gidgets now have a competitive price advantage, because they’re selling for US$5 less than the Canadian widgets, and the US manufacturer is getting US$20 more per gidget.
The US wholesaler or secondary manufacturer has to pay a higher price either way. The tariff is a tax on the US ultimate purchaser, whether they buy Canadian widgets or US gidgets, because of the protective function of the tariff.
Not sure why people are complaining. The response to Tariffs has been FANTASTIC according to Donny:
His Truth Social feed is something else right now.