With North Korea making increasingly warlike noises, I’ve been contemplating the following hypoetical scenario, and how the US would be able to respond.
Let’s say that North Korea manages to stage a successful decapitation strike against the US. To get around their lack of long-range missles, they’ve fitted up a merchant ship (operating under a “flag of convenience” nation, like Liberia or the Bahamas) to carry short-range missles covertly. This ship sails to the US’ east coast and, at the appointed hour (timed to coincide with the beginning of hostilities against South Korea), launches a nuclear strike against the DC area. The missles target Washinton (to get the President and Congress), Arlington, VA (to get the Pentagon) and Langeley, VA (to get the CIA headquarters). The strike occurs mid-morning, in an attempt to strike while most people are at work. The strike is as successful as could be hoped: the president is in Washington, and Congress is in session debating the latest budget stalemate. Whatever warnings they get, if any, are not early enough to do anybody any good, so the only survivors are people who were fortunate enough to be out of the DC area that morning.
At this point, few people would argue that retaliatory strikes would be in order, but would the US actually be able to organizer any such strikes? Is there anyone in the military who would have the authority to respond (who is likely to still be alive in this scenario). Even if we assume the Secretery of Agriculture was in Iowa touring wheat fields that day, and survived the strike, the “nuclear football” and the Secret Service agents who carry it are probably gone, so could a strike even be ordered? And is it likely that we would even be able to catch the ship and trace it back to North Korea? How long do you think it would be before a proper response could be formulated?