I don’t know. Is that what the international community did in 1918? I was under the impression that some of the post-war conditions that were imposed meant that the Germans experienced a series of internal crises that led to the situation in the 1930s.
I’m not an isolationist who thinks we should never intervene. I just think that here we HAVE intervened, repeatedly, with disastrous results, and for whatever reason we’re unwilling to commit WWII-era levels of military involvement. If we were willing to actually wage war on them, that would be a different story.
Imma stop you there, because there’s no chance in Hell of that happening, and you haven’t stated what you expect should happen when they don’t meet that condition.
I don’t know if you were serious, but China doesn’t have the ability to project force near enough to do much of anything, regardless of what you mean by ‘policing the world’. So, unless you want to wait for 20 years and hope China doesn’t fly apart in that time I think it’s a bad idea…and this leaves aside the fact that most countries would be less than thrilled with a heavy handed China policing the world, and the fact that China wouldn’t be interested in doing much more than increasing their sphere of influence over the nations close to their borders (and unable to do more than that in any case, at least for the foreseeable future).
Regardless, it’s not about the US policing anything, it’s about the US protecting access to a vital strategic resource and preventing a truly vile organization from getting the chance to spread and entrench any more than it already has. And, hell, WE aren’t even doing most of the water carrying this time, so I have no idea what you people are whining over what we are doing. Other people are doing the heavy fighting and dying part, we are merely sending over some jets to bomb the crap out of ISIS/ISILs logistics and any really juicy targets…and we aren’t even the only ones doing that part, since a bunch of other countries are doing as much as we are in the air. WTF do you all think we should do, nothing at all and just let others protect our access to resources and carry all the water??? I seriously don’t get this coming from some of you…I’d expect this line from right winger types busting on Obama because they bust on him for everything he does.
What makes you think it will grow? All their neighbors hate them. The Kurds hate them. The Turks hate them. The Iraqi Shi’ites hate them. Most Iraqi Sunnis hate them. Assad hates them. All other Syrian rebel factions hate them. The Egyptians hate them. The Israelis hate them. The King of Jordan really hates them. Even al-Qaeda hates them. Practically everybody who does not hate them has already rushed off to join them – but not nearly enough have. They can’t hang. There’s no need to send in American ground troops, all kinds of other ground troops will be butting in line for the chance to finish them off, and those troops probably don’t even need our air support – Jordan has an air force and ISIS does not.
Not really, yet. Close, perhaps, in that they have a de facto capital and government. But states need borders, and Daesh is adamant that their purview is the whole of the Muslim world. Moreover, states need recognition…
But not as a state. I can change my name to “andros the Mighty, High Potentate of all Mars,” but that sure won’t make it so. They are less of a state than Palestine, and barely more than the Conch Republic.
Agreed to the latter, but the former is more problematic. The US and the West do not recognize Daesh as anything other than an insurgency and terrorist organization, so I’m not buying that our lines of communication are open. They’re open to being open, I’ll absolutely grant that; if Daesh really wants to negotiate, channels would undoubtedly be opened.
Because they are still growing and they already have enough members to form an organized but still relatively small army that is so committed to their cause that makes them unusually dangerous. Don’t underestimate the number of radicals that can be assembled in this information age. The percentage of people willing to join them at all costs may be tiny but it still represents tens of thousands of people in total.
ISIS is an anomaly because they are not dumb by any measure and they have very real strategic plans for both the region and the world and they have been good at executing them (no pun intended). I don’t know if you have seen any of their execution videos but they aren’t just causal videos that someone shot from an iPhone. The Jordanian pilot execution video is a mini-documentary that they produced for a purpose with decent production values. The only thing they didn’t do was roll a list of extensive credits at the end. It is one of the most horrifying things I have ever seen.
I would be thrilled if Jordan, Egypt and the Kurds somehow rounded up every single one of them tonight and executed them on the spot but that isn’t going to happen because their militaries aren’t up to it and ISIS is too formidable even at its current size. I already said that I don’t want the U.S. to get sucked into another Middle Eastern conflict but I believe this threat is severe enough that we may not have any choice. If Jordan, Saudi Arabia or Turkey undergo any more direct threats from them then there is little choice at all.
Sorry, but Rawanda should imediately come to mind, when expecting the UN to actually police. The best that you could probably hope for is a rotating designated force, of division sized with aviation assets. You could expect that Chinese, Russian, or whom ever gets up to bat, according to ROE set by anybody, but the General Assembly.
Imagine if a ground invasion actually were to happen. Maybe ISIS is dumb enough to engage in a stand up fight and get massacred, but I’d tend to think they’d be smart and melt into the local population and/or retreat into Syria. Then what? Another occupation? Invade Syria too? Don’t forget Libya, that place is still reeling from our help.
The U.S. is happy to play up its new coalition of the willing rhetoric for political reasons (this is a Muslim thing for real you guys, not another Mesopotamian crusade), but the U.S. has done the vast majority of the bombings. It’s true that Egypt bombed Libya – after its citizens were killed. Jordan amped up its rhetoric – after its pilot was killed. That’s hot blooded, seat of your pants posturing. Maybe it’ll lead to something else, maybe not.
The Kurds have been fighting in Kobani for awhile. They think it’s theirs and now they got it back. Or what’s left of it. They’re playing it smart, trying to defend their own Kurdish space. From what I can tell, as far as they’re concerned the rest of Iraq and Syria can take a flying leap.
Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe America’s coalition allies will form a ground army and sweep through Iraq. Good things come to those who wait, I guess. I laughed when a month or two ago Iraq complained the coalition wasn’t doing enough about ISIS. *We’re *not doing enough? The nerve of these guys.
I wonder how many U.S. planners and pols were disappointed that it had be a Jordanian pilot who was shot down and burned alive and not an American one. That would’ve made things so much easier.
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Imagine if a ground invasion actually were to happen. Maybe ISIS is dumb enough to engage in a stand up fight and get massacred, but I’d tend to think they’d be smart and melt into the local population and/or retreat into Syria. Then what? Another occupation? Invade Syria too? Don’t forget Libya, that place is still reeling from our help.
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‘Imagine’ being the operative word, since this is pure hand wringing fantasy. First off, Iraq is ASKING us to send some ground troops, and we are balking at sending more than token training cadre (and probably some special ops guys for targeting or intel). We aren’t going to be invading anyone, certainly not Syria.
Thus far, ISIS/ISIL HAS come out into the open…it’s the only way they can take and keep ground. You can’t do that melting into the local population, and aside from certain areas they basically can’t do that anyway, since hacking off the heads of the men folk and raping your way across a country usually has a negative effect on the willingness of the locals to allow you to blend…unless you mean that in the literal Chinese sense of the word ‘blend’, of course. Syria is going to have to deal with itself and it’s own melt down in progress.
Libya, of course, would pretty much be where Syria is today without US/European intervention (and as an aside, we never invaded that country either). You might think things are fucked up there today, and they are, but they would still be in the midst of a really bloody awful civil war still, since like in Syria the balance of power is so fine that neither side could decisively win without something to tip the balance. Maybe you think that under the Kaddaffi Duck things were a lot better, but I don’t believe the facts bear that out. Regardless, Syria is not going to be invaded by the US, and IF we send troops to Iraq it won’t be an invasion by any stretch or spin of that term. Not this time.
Not that I think we need to send combat troops. As I noted earlier in this thread, there are already others doing the water carrying this time around, and the heavy dying on the ground, so I think we could use with less hyperbole about the US ‘policing the world’, since that’s pure spin.
OTOH, I don’t think many Libyans really long to have things back like they were under Gaddafi; and they’d like their present situation a whole lot worse if it included a U.S. occupation force.
I agree the middle east should start to clean up its own messes and quit looking to the US to get rid of its bad guys. There are many countries right now who hate ISIS - Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and now Egypt. Why cant they deal with ISIS themselves? Hasnt the US helped enough?
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And really, just bomb people a little more. It has to be the answer.
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Naw. Obviously the real answer is to just allow a bunch of dooms day cult fanatics to rape, murder and pillage their way across a region that has vital strategic resources used by the world because the US shouldn’t bomb anyone! I’m sure that us not bombing ISIS/ISIL will make all the difference and everything will be rose colored and hunky dory at that point, right??
The irony of you excluding the middle and then talking to me about binary choices is pretty much off the charts, though I see you continue with your silly drive by content free slams. As always, thanks for joining in the discussion and adding so much to it.
Syria is going to have to deal with itself and it’s own melt down in progress.