There's a registered sex offender living in my neighborhood...

[jester21]

@Mynn

There is a pretty low rate of recidivism among those punished by death, too.

I truely hope someday someone you love is convicted of a sex offence. Then you can be first in line w/ the gun.

[fessie]

From your cite (CSOM Publications)

Understanding the concept of “base rates” is also essential when studying sex offender recidivism. A base rate is simply the overall rate of recidivism of an entire group of offenders. If the base rate for an entire group is known (e.g., 40 percent), then, without other information, practitioners would predict that any individual in this group has approximately a 40 percent chance of recidivating. If static or dynamic factors related to recidivism are identified, error rates can be improved and this information can be used to make more accurate assessments of the likelihood of rearrest or reconviction. However, if the base rate is at one extreme or the other, additional information may not significantly improve accuracy. For instance, if the base rate were 10 percent, then practitioners would predict that 90 percent of the individuals in this group would not be arrested for a new crime. The error rate would be difficult to improve, regardless of what additional information may be available about individual offenders. In other words, if we simply predicted that no one would be rearrested, we would be wrong only 10 percent of the time. It is quite difficult to make accurate individual predictions in such extreme situations.

What has come to be termed as “the low base rate problem” has traditionally plagued sex offender recidivism studies (Quinsey, 1980). As noted previously, lack of reporting, or underreporting, is higher in crimes of sexual violence than general criminal violence and may contribute to the low base rate problem. The following studies have found low base rates for sex offender populations:

* Hanson and Bussiere (1998) reported an overall recidivism rate of 13 percent.
* Grumfeld and Noreik (1986) found a 10 percent recidivism rate for rapists.
* Gibbens, Soothill, and Way (1978) reported a 4 percent recidivism rate for incest offenders.

Samples of sex offenders used in some studies may have higher base rates of reoffense than other studies. Quinsey (1984) found this to be the case in his summary of sex offender recidivism studies, as have many other authors who have attempted to synthesize this research. There is wide variation in results, in both the amount of measured recidivism and the factors associated with these outcomes. To a large degree, differences can be explained by variations in the sample of sex offenders involved in the studies. Although this is a simple and somewhat obvious point, this basic fact is “responsible for the disagreements and much of the confusion in the literature” on the recidivism of sex offenders (Quinsey, 1984).

Furthermore, results from some studies indicate that there may be higher base rates among certain categories of sex offenders (Quinsey, Laumiere, Rice, and Harris, 1995; Quinsey, Rice, and Harris, 1995). For example, in their follow-up study of sex offenders released from a psychiatric facility, Quinsey, Rice, and Harris (1995) found that rapists had a considerably higher rate of rearrest/reconviction than did child molesters.

Conversely, Prentky, Lee, Knight, and Cerce (1997) found that over a** 25-year period, child molesters had higher rates of reoffense than rapists**. In this study, recidivism was operationalized as a failure rate and calculated as the proportion of individuals who were rearrested using survival analysis (which takes into account the amount of time each offender has been at risk in the community). **Results show that over longer periods of time, child molesters have a higher failure rate—thus, a higher rate of rearrest—than rapists (52 percent versus 39 percent over 25 years). **

[35340]

@jester21

I truely hope someday someone you love is convicted of a sex offence. Then you can be first in line w/ the gun.

Wow, you’re just full of sunshine today.

The best way I can answer that is this: at this space and time in my life I don’t wish to inconveinence myself by going down my little list. And those on the list do meet your criteria as stated above. So I do what I can, including limiting my options for where in the country I live and work, so I can “socially” and “acceptably” protect my children from them without causing more strife.

[fessie]

A cousin of mine committed some sort of molestation crime when he was a child, maybe 12 or so (I believe the victim was 5). He might have been a little older. And in our family it is not discussed. My cousin appeared before a judge and received counselling and AFAIK hasn’t been in a moment’s trouble since - actually he really turned his life around. He was a troubled kid, but is a delightful adult (30 now); it’s pretty clear his problems were grounded in his mom’s bad marriages.

Do I let him play with my twins? Absolutely.
Will he ever spend time alone with them? Absolutely not.

[Metacom]

@fessie

Do I let him play with my twins? Absolutely.
Will he ever spend time alone with them? Absolutely not.

Do you think the government should provide citizens with his name, address, and details of his crime and allow them to post it near where he lives and works?

[fessie]

I don’t know. I just don’t know enough about the subject.

Not to hijack, perhaps this should be a new thread, but he’s got a girlfriend with children and I think she should be told about his past. Maybe he’s already done so, I hope he has. My relatives act as if this is all such ancient news that it has no relevance, but I don’t agree.

[Metacom]

Wow.

All I can say is I’m really fucking glad all my “youthful indiscretions” were of a non-sexual nature, so people didn’t debate whether they should have to be broadcast to everyone for the rest of my life.

[fessie]

Yes, and why were they? Why did you keep your “indiscretions” within certain boundaries? Because there are limits. That was a choice. We all have moments of acting out, but even then there are things that you just don’t do.

OTOH, though, if one’s past is constantly being brought into the present, then how can a person possibly hope to change? Some people do change. Everyone ought to have the opportunity.

It’s an ugly, no-win situation. I just don’t want my kids to be at risk.

[Metacom]

@fessie

Yes, and why were they? Why did you keep your “indiscretions” within certain boundaries? Because there are limits.

Only partially. The other big part was that there was no desire to go outside those boundaries. If you go by the “you did it in the past, therefore you’re much more likely to do it in the future and we need to tell everyone about your past” logic, I probably wouldn’t have gotten anywhere in life.

Used to do drugs? Sorry, but you’re too unstable to be around money. Might get addicted and start stealing.

Used to be violent? Sorry, but we don’t want you around people because you’re more likely to hurt someone.

History of mental illness? Sorry, but you’re more likely to be mentally ill in the future. We’re not touching you with a ten-foot pole, psycho.

Not that these necessarily apply to me, there just hypotheticals. People fuck up. Statistically, people who have fucked up are more likely to fuck up again. Alienate them by tatooing “fuck up” on their forehead, and they ain’t gonna get far in society.

[jester21]

@Metacom

People fuck up. Statistically, people who have fucked up are more likely to fuck up again. Alienate them by tatooing “fuck up” on their forehead, and they ain’t gonna get far in society.

people who fuck up are more likely to be noticed fucking up again later.

Peeps on here LOVE to rant about how sex offences are the “unreported crime”. There may be some validity to that in the initial case… but for reoffenders?? I have a hard time reoffenders go unnoticed quite so easily.

And what of all the other types of felonies. As stated MANY times to the non-believers, all other types have much higher re-offence rates. And do you think that ALL of them are noticed? Do you believe ALL or even most or even a majority of drug offences are caught? And still, nearly 50% are reconvicted?

Peeps on here, like to use the numbers that match thier views while ignoring anything that duzn’t support them.

And the one stat… over a 25 year period, 75% are reconvicted??? How big was the sample pool? 4?

Anyway… why the fuck is this in IMHO anyway? it’s at the very least GD, and should probably be in the Pit.

[Metacom]

@jester21

Peeps on here, like to use the numbers that match thier views while ignoring anything that duzn’t support them.

Admit it: you’re real name is “Sasha Cohen,” isn’t it?

[KGS]

Oh, my. To think as of last night I was considering posting a thank-you to everyone for keeping it civil in this thread about an obvious hot-button topic…ah, well.

On the bright side, I took a peek at the mailboxes this morning and lo & behold, the perp notice was GONE, while the legal disclaimer I tacked up was still there. So it looks like our anonymous vigilante got the message…unless some other anonymous pro-Civil-Rights do-gooder such as myself got involved.

fessie, I think it’s sad that you can’t forgive your cousin for something that happened 18 years ago, when the guy wasn’t even a freakin’ teenager yet, and it’s disturbing that you’re thinking of sabotaging his relationship on top of that. Unless you have reasonable suspicions that the guy really is a pedophile, I’d leave the poor guy alone fer chrissakes.

@jester21

Does TubaDiva live in your neighborhood?

Eh? What does this mean? I know you already got slapped by a mod, but I gotta admit I’m totally whooshed here.

[Metacom]

@KGS

Eh? What does this mean? I know you already got slapped by a mod, but I gotta admit I’m totally whooshed here.

It doesn’t mean anything. Nothing at all. In fact, I don’t even know what you’re asking about. Eh? Did you post something? Hopefully you won’t keep asking about what doesn’t exist so this thread can stay open… (Seriously–someone’ll probably email the details to you or something, but the mods have been very quick to lock and hide any mention of “it”).

[fessie]

I have no intention of sabotaging his relationship. I’m not going to “out” him, that would be cruel and inappropriate. But I hope he does tell her, I think she deserves to know. I would want to know. Do you have kids, KGS? Being a parent strongly colors my response to this issue.

What I’d really like to know is if someone molested him - isn’t it the case that most molesters were themselves victims? That’s a conversation I might try to have with him, given the right circumstances. It might also allay my fears about him.

[jester21]

@KGS

Eh? What does this mean? I know you already got slapped by a mod, but I gotta admit I’m totally whooshed here.

send me an email and i’ll forward you an email containing nothing about what never happened.

[KGS]

@fessie

Do you have kids, KGS? Being a parent strongly colors my response to this issue.

No kids here, and you’re right about the parent thing. If it’s any consolation, kids are much more hardy and self-aware than most parents give them credit for. I am in no way encouraging you to put your kids at risk, but even if something did happened to them, due to your cousin or someone else, it’s not like they’ll be hopelessly scarred for life. (Of course, all the world’s lawmakers, news reporters and social workers will try and convince you otherwise…well, duh! That’s their job! That’s how they keep the money rolling in!)

What I’d really like to know is if someone molested him - isn’t it the case that most molesters were themselves victims? That’s a conversation I might try to have with him, given the right circumstances. It might also allay my fears about him.

That’s admirable, though it would be hard to find the right circumstances…it ain’t gonna work if you just ask him straight out, “So Dave, that thing you did when you were 12, did you do it because you were molested too?” Hmm, maybe if you got him really, really drunk first…

[fessie]

Oh, I’ve no doubt you’re right about kids being resilient. I don’t buy that “ruined for life” argument. There’s a point where it’s not about them, it’s about me, about the rage I would feel towards anyone who tried to harm my children (much less succeeded). This is primitive brain stuff, total cavewoman response. It’s way beyond reason.

[35340]

@fessie

I have no intention of sabotaging his relationship. I’m not going to “out” him, that would be cruel and inappropriate. But I hope he does tell her, I think she deserves to know. I would want to know. Do you have kids, KGS? Being a parent strongly colors my response to this issue.

I haven’t changed my stance much on child molesters in general since becoming a parent, except to the extent that as long as I am aware that the molesters I know of aren’t still molesting I will keep out of it beyond simply never leaving my or any children alone with the molester.

I don’t have any tips for bringing it up, though - most of my experience has been speaking with victims.

@fessie

What I’d really like to know is if someone molested him - isn’t it the case that most molesters were themselves victims? That’s a conversation I might try to have with him, given the right circumstances. It might also allay my fears about him.

It might. While it’s not so much of an ‘excuse’ for having done it, to me it does change (am I using the right word) the situation a bit. There’s “molested, does it once and not again”, then there is “molested, and keeps doing it, despite corrective action”.

[mhendo]

@fessie

I don’t know. I just don’t know enough about the subject.

Not to hijack, perhaps this should be a new thread, but he’s got a girlfriend with children and I think she should be told about his past. Maybe he’s already done so, I hope he has. My relatives act as if this is all such ancient news that it has no relevance, but I don’t agree.

He was 12 fucking years old, ferchrissakes!

When i was 12 years old, my friends and i used to pinch candy from the local store and throw eggs at people’s houses. It was stupid behavior, and nothing i’m likely to repeat as an adult. Should i be required to tell everyone i meet about these incidents so they can lock up their wallets?

[mhendo]

@sugaree

In my neighborhood: 84, baby, 84. About 20 of them labeled “sexually violent.” Gotta love city life.

Wow, do you live in my neighborhood? My zipcode also shows exactly 84 offenders, with 22 of them sexually violent.