Now that we’ve got that out of the way, yesterday’s (Wednesday’s) clash left one soldier dead and 19 people injured. The clash near air-force HQ was with the same convoy that was on it’s way north of the city. The soldier who was killed got it from friendly fire! Poor bugger. So that makes 27 dead now since this started. Story here.
But the authorities have the rally site isolated now, having closed all streets leading to it. See here.
An interesting take on conditions between the prime minister and the army commander is here.
I can tell you all was quiet in the Soi Cowboy and Nana Plaza bar areas last night. No protesters, no troops, but customer numbers down a bit too, I thought. I was meeting friends there, and we did not make it over to Patpong. Pity, because I understand those are the bars that are really hurting, being so close to the rally site and right by last week’s grenade attacks as they are; they could use some custom. May have to stop by. Have not had a Madrid Bar pizza for a while, and that’s good eatin’!
Yesterday afternoon, I boarded the Skytrain at Asoke Station, and I counted more than a dozen heavily armed soldiers inside. (But nary a one at the end of the line, Onnuj Station, so they must be concentrating manpower in the central areas.) I saw quite a few soldiers along lower Sukhumvit Road in the wee hours of this morning. Sitting at a sidewalk bar on Sukhumvit about 3:30 or 4am, I met two young Americans who had just arrived in Thailand two hours before. They seemed unfazed by events, but then maybe they’re gluttons for punishment, as they planned to go to Pattani province in the deep South, heart of the Muslim insurgency. One of them knows someone who has a farm there.
Thanks for that. He says he doesn’t want to compare the red shirts with the Nazis. Well, I do. They’re just like the Nazis. They sound like Nazis and they act like Nazis. And so are the yellow shirts when they’re out and about! And whenever they’re up on stage, be they red shirt or yellow shirt, it sounds like Hitler’s Greatest Hits from Berchtesgarten. I feel sorry for the poor shlubs who have to live nearby and listen to that day and night. It’s a really fucked situation.
The wife and her family have been life-long Democrat supporters, but she’s so angry about the way the Democrat-led government just keeps saying “Patience, be patient” to the public without ever doing anything that she doesn’t want to vote for them anymore. That, of course, leaves the tricky question of who’s left to vote for that doesn’t turn the stomach.
Yesterday, 200 red shirts stormed through Chulalongkorn Hospital, which I’ve mentioned is right by the protest site, looking for army troops they’re convinced are hiding there in preparation for a crackdown. They didn’t find any, and the hospital director says there isn’t any, but the reds are sure they’re there. They vowed to return today in larger numbers and look even more carefully. However, in a rare display of common sense on their part, the leaders must have realized how this was looking to the public, because they soon reversed themselves and said they’d leave the hospital alone. Still, just to be on the safe side, all outpatient services have been suspended for another day, all surgeries called off and the patients moved to elsewhere.
Thaksin is rumord to have died. He’s been the subject of cancer rumors for quite a while now, and his vituperative video links to his supporters, broadcast on the reds’ own television station, have mysteriously ended. It’s been weeks since he appeared on air, and the last few times he did, he was looking peaked. Photos of him appeared earlier this week in an apparent bid to scotch the rumors, along with reports he was doing business deals in Montengro, but at least one newsman I know here thinks there’s a good chance he’s actually in Russia receiving treatment, that country having been chosen for its culture of secrecy.
Report here on how the prime minister is trying to convice the police to stop dragging their feet. Good luck to that!
I just learned one of the photographers covering Thaksin on Monday is a friend of a friend, and he confirms that was indeed Montenegro they were all in. So much for my other friend’s musings about Russia, although Thaksin has paid a visit to that country a time or two in recent months.
Dang, but this hospital raid has turned into a PR disaster for the red shirts. Public condemnation has been swift and widespread. Maybe this will finally be what it takes to prompt the government into action? Nahhhh. But it has vowed not to let them do anything of the sort again, uh-uh, nosirree. This government is very good at vowing this and that.
Stories on it here and here. That first one has the clever title of “Losing Patience.” get it? Patience, patients. Haha!
The supreme patriarch, who is the head of Thai Buddhism, like the pope to the Catholics, was one of the patients moved. I believe he’s in his 90s – he looks about 200 – and he’s been in for a while for age-related stuff. This is not going down well.
I mentioned before that the reds backed off of a second raid when the leaders realized what they’d done. (I think a mid-level leader was responsible for it.) They even apologized for doing this. But THEN … yesterday evening, one of the top leaders, Natthawut, in the same breath he apologized again on air said: “But if we ever do think there really are soldiers in there, we’ll sure go in again!” Man, these guys are just fucking morons! :smack:
Another good one on the hospital situation is here.
And the police arrested an ex-cop in the March 20 RPG attack on the Defense Ministry. He claims he was actually trying to hit the Temple of the Emerald Buddha nearby and that he was paid half-a-million baht to do so! Sounds dubious.
The wife and I were near the scene yesterday (Saturday). I get my hair cut in MBK Centrer, still called Mah Boonkhrong by long-timers, and that’s in the Siam Square area, which is on the edge of the red shirts’ encampment. Rama I Road along Siam Square itself has been blocked off by the reds, with barricades erected. The shops in the square along the street are closed, but the ones deeper inside the square, away from the street, remain open, albeit with precious little business. On the other side of Rama I Road, the large shopping malls Siam Center, Siam Discovery Center and Siam Paragon, the last the largest shopping center in Southeast Asia, remain shut. MBK Center is open, across Phaya Thai Road from Siam Square, but it’s quieter than usual. Many people just don’t want to enter the area. Still lots of tourists shopping there, though. The lady who always cuts my hair confirmed business was way down. The barricades we saw in the street had handwritten “No Photography” signs stuck all over them but only in Thai, and we saw a couple of Japanese tourists wandering around freely taking pictures.
International NGOs are warning of undeclared civil war if the situation is not resolved soon. Police have been ordered to reclaim the area in front of Chulalongkorn Hospital, by force if necessary, but it remains to be seen if they’ll act at all. I’m not optimistic. The reds are vowing to fight to the last minute even if martial law is declared.
A nurse at the hospital told my wife’s supervisor that the real reason it was evacuated was not the threat of more red-shirt raids, but rather the bombs that have been attached to the fence along the compound. She said you can see them clearly and that they’d been rigged up as booby traps in case of a military assault from that direction.
Haha! A man from up North is asking the ruling Democrat Party to help send him and 24 friends back home. They all came down to join the protest on Tuesday after having been promised 200 or 300 baht (US$6.25 or $9.25) per day. They’ve been paid nothing so far, so want to go home. But red-shirt guards have confiscated the IDs of 18 of the 25 people. Good! Living in the street and eating out of garbage cans will suit them fine for a while. Story here.
And to add to the general weirdness, an illegal Aussie has been wowing the red shirts with bogus speeches. Story here.
Not much going on now. Yesterday (Sunday), the cabinet met in emergency meeting, but the prime minister announced there would be no martial law. But the cabinet acknowledged the army would have to play a bigger role. Story here.
The police negotiated with the red shirts to back away from Chulalongkorn Hospital, so it could reopen. The TV shots of those talks were disgusting, with the police almost literally begging the red shirts to back away. One of the top red-shirt leaders, name of Natthawut, sat there regally, acting like he’s the king of Thailand. He finally agreed to pull his people back 50 meters and announced the hospital director had expressed satisfaction with this. The hospital director then announced that was nonsense, nothing of the sort had been expressed and if anyone wanted the hospital to reopen, the reds would have to pull back at least to the nearest intersection. Said 5000 staff worked in the first building nearest the street alone and that if there were any sort of action outside with the reds right there, a potentially lethal panic could ensue. So the reds moved the barricades 50 meters and told the hospital:" There! We’ve moved. Now you HAVE to reopen!" The director responded: “We don’t HAVE to do anything, and we’re not reopening until you pull back to the intersection.” It remains closed, except for the Emergency Room. Story here.
Regarding that Aussie above, it gets even weirder. Yesterday (Monday), I was shown a photo in the possession of a local journalist that appears to be of this very same Aussie, but dressed in yellow at a yellow-shirt rally two years ago! It was sent to the journalist by a Swedish lady. They cannot publish it, because the Swedish lady owns the copyright and won’t give permission. Possibly she thinks she can make some money off of it, dunno. And some people who have seen it are not convinced it’s really him. But I’ve seen it with my own two eyes, and I think it’s him. Doofus.
The prime minister outlined a “road map” to peace to the Senate last night, followed by a nationwide address. He made an offer of elections on November 14 – IF the red shirts rein themselves in and behave – and word is the red leaders are trying to find a way to “get out of this.” They seem to realize they’ve dug themselves into a hole. Facing terrorism and other criminal charges, unable to leave the rally site. We’ll see. This would entail a sudden burst of rare common sense on the part of the red leaders, but they do seem to be growing tired, especially after the PR nightmare of the hospital raid. Plus several police raids around the city yesterday at locations connected to the red shirts uncovered a HUGE cache of war weapons. There’s a good editorial cartoon on that here, by a local international-award-winning French political cartoonist name of Stephff. A series of his cartoons on the 2010 protest can be seen here.
The reds have conditionally accepted the road map. Reports yesterday of Army armored vehicles traveling to Bangkok from bases upcountry for use in clearing them out could have helped make up their mind. But they refuse to leave the protest site until the prime minister actually names a date for the dissolution of parliament.
One of the deputy prime ministers has said there will be no amnesty for red-shirt leaders charged with criminal offenses, but I tend to doubt that. There’s always behind-the-scenes dealing going on.
And I don’t believe this truce will prove to be anything but temporary. As long as Thaksin remains alive, there is going to be trouble.
What happens when he dies? This isn’t a young or healthy man, right? Do the reds all go home then, or is there someone positioned to take Thaksin’s place at the head of the mob?
Thaksin pretty much runs the show. He’s certainly funding it. A dollar billionaire, he’s still smarting over being ousted by the military in our 2006 coup and later sentenced to prison for corruption. (He’s on the lam from serving his sentence. And he was convicted under a red-shirt government, so accusations of the conviction and sentence being political don’t really wash.) I suppose there could be some organizational structure that perpetuates this, but he’s really the bottom line. He’s 60 and as mentioned above, there are persistent rumors of cancer treatment. There is a very good chance that it will largely fall apart upon his demise.
Things are beginning to edge back to some semblance of normality. The Skytrain has resumed full hours, 6am-midnight. Chulalongkorn Hospital has reopened some services.
But the reds are staying put until Abhisit gives a firm date for dissolution of parliament. Since the constitution stipulates an election – now scheduled for November 14 – must and can only be held 45-60 days following a parliamentary dissolution, that pretty much pegs it as sometime in September. And secret negotiations over a general amnesty for red-shirt leaders have broken down. Seems the reds don’t want to be charged with any criminal offenses, the scum. The bottom line, though, is Thaksin has almost certainly told them to maintain the pressure.
A poll shows 60% approval for the prime minister’s proposal, but there have still been some very angry phone calls to ruling-party politicians from constituents who don’t like it that the PM backed down from his original stance of no election in less than nine months.
Well, it’s not over yet. The red shirts refuse to budge from the protest site, no doubt on orders from Thaksin, so hotels, shopping malls and other businesses still cannot reopen. The government is threatening to clear them out with force. and the prime minister says his reconciliation plan is conditional on the reds going home. The yellow shirts have flatly rejected the reconciliation plan and are threatening their own trouble if it’s implemented or the government can’t clear out the reds.
Never boring here, I’ll tell ya!
What I find odd is that throughout this entire ordeal, the stock market has generally risen. It’s taken a bit of a dip this week, but it’s largely been on an upward trend. And the curency, the baht, has remained in the range of 32-32.50 to to the US dollar. I’m no economist, but this seems strange.
Two attacks last night (Friday night) left two policemen dead, several other police and and soldiers plus a couple of civilians wounded at the protest site.
First there was a drive-by shooting on a group of policemen stationed in front of Krung Thai Bank on Silom Road. That killed one cop and injured two others and two civilians. It’s a bit sketchy, but the attack seems to have been aimed at a group of anti-red-shirt protesters nearby. Not sure why the cops took the brunt of the attack, which was made by a pair on a motorcycle, who got away.
Later, “at least” three grenades were launched at a police-soldier checkpoint near an entrance to Lumpini Park, killing another policeman and injuring five others.
An interesting analysis of the situation and why the red-shirt leaders have tentatively agreed to the prime minister’s five-point reconciliation plan is in today’s Asia Times and can be seen here.
I like that it recognizes this is NOT as much of a class-struggle situation as the red leaders have tried to portray it, but rather a struggle between different elites for overall power. That’s what I’ve always said and how most people here have viewed it, especially with the protesters only agreeing to protest if they get paid to do so.
All quiet today so far after last night’s attacks. Just turning nightfall now, however.
Fuck. The red-shirt leaders have tentatively accepted the plan, but there is an Army Mafia figure known as Seh Daeng who is ordering the rank and file not to accept it. This was on the local news just now. This is the clown who ordered the barricades replaced near Chulalongkorn Hospital after they were first taken down after that botched raid. He’s this guy. Been acting as head of security for the red shirts.
There are various strongmen among the military officers, each with his own followers and informal command organization. It really is a Mafia, just like, say, the various New York City families and just as involved in organized crime. This one is an extremely close friend of Thaksin. He sneaked out of Thailand to meet with Thaksin in Cambodia last year on one of the latter’s frequent trips there, having his photo taken with Thaksin and Cambodian PM Hun Sen, somehow escaping serious army punishment. Met with Thaksin again in Dubai, leaving the country without permission yet again. In various news interviews he’s given, he seems certifiably insane. For instance, in this interview. He’s widely believed to have been responsible for the bombing this year of the both the Defense Ministry and Army Headquarters after he was suspended from duty, but no one has been able to pin anything on him.
So he’s crazy, and he’s ordering the red shirts to stay put. Again, it’s widely believed he’s taking orders from his good friend, Thaksin. The businesses in the area will not be opening soon.
On a personal note, the Police Sergeant killed at Lumpini gate served in Mrs. Septimus’ village; his wife is very friendly with my wife; and we share close mutual friends. I don’t want to be melodramatic (we’ve known them only a few years and won’t be going to the funeral which will be in a distant province) but I admired Sgt. Wittaya, and found him to be very righteous. We were close enough that I once put his uniform on, as a little joke. (He could easily have made trouble for septimus but didn’t. There’s another close connection between us too complicated to describe.)
Although “only” a Sergeant, he had a reputation as clever plainclothes detective. I never heard any suggestion of corruption in connection with him. Many people around here are saddened by this loss.
Small world, huh? I’m unaware of any close friends of mine who lost their lives in the U.S. military but, though casualties have been light, I lost a friend to the heinous red shirts.
