There's Rioting in Our Streets, Part 2

Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
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Yes, although the police here have a reputation for corruption and incompetence – much of it well deserved – there are some good cops, and even the corrupt ones always seem to turn all efficient if they get a kick in the behind from the higher-ups in a sensitive case.

Way back when I lived in a teakwood house in a backyard up in the North, a Border Patrol cop rented the house in front with his wife and small daughter, and he was a great guy. I’d’ve been surprised to hear any corruption allegations regarding him. He was completely devoted to his family and seemed to know his job.

Another good cop of my acquaintance is the brother-in-law of my best friend in Thailand, a fellow American who lives in Roi Et province in the Northeast. My friend’s wife is from that area. They met because she was his secretary, and they’ve been married almost 20 years now. Her brother is a cop, and it is his sad misfortune that he is a good one. Seriously. He believes in police work and public service, takes his job seriously and doesn’t take bribes. Unfortunately, this means he is NOT trusted by his fellow officers. He’s shunted from station to station all over the Northeast, because no one wants an honest cop among them. They view him with much suspicion, like maybe he’s reporting on them back to Bangkok. He’ll never rise very high, and from what I can tell, doesn’t even have many, if any, cop friends.

Meanwhile, it’s late Sunday morning now, and Saturday night seems to have passed uneventfully. But Friday night’s attacks are threatening to derail the reconciliation plan. Mark my words, the plan will come to nothing. We’ve not seen the last of trouble yet. And these bastard red shirts say they’ll come up with their own plan soon. What a bunch of doofuses!

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Bastards! Thousands more red shirts arrived in Bangkok this afternoon (Sunday afternoon) to bolster the protest numbers at the main rally site. Story here. About 5000 of them. Why is the protest swelling? The reds have no intention of standing down. Passing through the area the other day on the Skytrain, I could see the croeds looking smaller. Now they’re pumping them up again. I doubt they have any intention at all of calling this off.

That red-shirt security chief I mentioned before, the one called “Seh Daeng.” The prime minister today named him the “mastermind and chief terrorist” opposed to the reconciliation plan See here. There’s little doubt in anyone’s mind he’s the one immediately behind Friday night’s attacks, but again he himself is taking orders from others, and not just Thaksin, although he is the ultimate top link in the chain of command. I doubt any of the red-shirt leaders want this plan to work, especially without an amnesty for them.

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Yesterday (Sunday), the prime minister said the red shirts had 24 hours to say when they would leave the protest site. Not leave, mind you, but say when they’d leave. Or else …? He didn’t say. He did say the new school year was starting soon, later this month, and the situation as it stood could pose a danger to schoolchildren. So maybe something will happen this time. Maybe. It’s late Monday morning now, and the deadline will expire soon.

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There seems to be going a reshuffling of red leadership at this very moment. Sae Daeng, the bombastic (heh!) mayor general representative of the most extremist faction of the reds has been saying he’s got orders from Taksin about replacing the leadership, the TAN (Thai ASEAN News) quotes:

I have the feeling some rats are going to start jumping ship pretty soon, and if this hardcore cabal takes (completely) over the red shirt movement it’s going to get very ugly very soon.

85

Well, surprise! Monday came and went and the protest it’s still going on.
Yesterday, in an heroic movement to take their chutzpah level to 11 the red leadership demanded as a condition for abandoning the rally site that the PM and deputy PM surrender to the police in relation to the 10th of April clashes that left 26 people dead. The deputy PM actually agreed to report to the DSI offices (more or less an FBI simil) which is in charge of the investigation on the 10th of April deaths, to which the reds jumped up and say that’s not the police!, no deal!
Of course the whole red leadership has actual arrest warrants on them and/or have broken bail terms from previous proceedings; to say nothing of the head cheese, Thaksin, on the run for years.
They said they would surrender on the 15th of this month, somehow I don’t think they’ll keep their word on that neither.

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Yes, that’s the deal that was worked out, but the PM has also agreed. However, the PM cannot report to the police now – specifically to the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) – because as a member of parliament, he has immunity from prosecution that does not expire until the present session of parliament ends late this month. After that, he will report to the DSI. The red shirt leaders have also agreed to report, but similarly, Jatuporn is also an MP, and his immunity won’t expire until parliament ends late this month. He’s insisting he and the PM appear at the DSI together.

The red leaders are demanding the same treatment as the PM and the deputy PM, meaning if those two get bail, which they almost certainly will, then they want bail too. I believe it was only 25 killed on April 10, but I’m not sure where that guy they found dead in the zoo a day or two later fits in. Anyway, it’s not all of the dead at issue here, but rather only the 20 civilians the reds are wanting answered for. Not sure if that includes the Japanese news photographer who bought it.

The reds are still trying to stir the shit, though. This is getting complicated even for Thailand, so follow closely. The deputy prime minister in question, Suthep Thaugsuban, has surrendered to the DSI this morning (Tuesday morning). The reason HE was picked to surrender is he is in charge of what is called the Center for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation (CRES), formed in the wake of the April 10 clash. The head of the DSI is Tharit Pengdit, who is also a member of the CRES. Since Tharit himself belongs to the CRES, the reds are claiming the DSI will be too lenient with Suthep. THEY say he must report to the Crime Suppression Bureau (CSB) instead, which they consider a neutral body, one in which no conflicts of interest will pop up. However, the government insists Suthep – and eventually the PM – MUST report to the DSI, because relatives of the victims killed in the April 10 clash filed complaints against Suthep and the PM with that body, NOT the CSB. Now the reds are saying the protest won’t end until Suthep also reports to the CSB. (The word I have is this all revolves around the question of an amnesty for the red leaders. They do NOT want to go to jail.)

And on it goes. :mad:

Meanwhile, another grenade attack, this time on the home of the Election Commission chairman Sunday night. No one hurt. (He’s not stayed there for four months now anyway.) And a dud grenade was fired at a Bangkok Bank branch in northern Bangkok the same night. (Bangkok Bank gets attacked a lot, because the family that owns it are staunch government and Democrat Party supporters.)

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Oh, and for the first time in just about anyone’s memory here, the American ambassador was called in for a formal rebuke. Seems an assistant US secretary of state met with a red-shirt leader and a Thaksin lawyer, to hear their side of the story and get their take on the prime minister’s road map to reconciliation. I believe he even urged the reds to give up the protest. Still, this did not sit well with the Thai government. Story here.

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Help me understand, why doesn’t the government/military put the smackdown on the redshirts? Didn’t the military throw Thaksin out? Why let him make mischief by proxy (and I don’t believe anybody could miss Thaksin behind all of this).

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Very good questions, ones that many people have been asking in frustration. It would suit me just fine to see a couple of tanks go blasting up the street at them.

The problem is the military and police are divided. I’ve mentioned above that much of the military is divided into these Mafia groups, and there are all sorts of loyalties. The government is always, always controlled by the military behind the scenes. Since the overthrow of the absolute monarchy in 1932, there have been I think it’s 23 military coup attempts – some successful, some not – by factions wanting control. Much of the military were and remain pro-Thaksin; the present military commander was a classmate of his. The pro-Thaksin faction have missed out on a lot of goodies these past 3-1/2 years since the coup, making them more disgruntled. These soldiers you see referred to in the press as “watermelons”: green on the outside, red on the inside. Same with the police; many are pro-red, because they feel they’ve been treated unfairly by the present government.

But the prime minister must depend on military support to get things done, and if that support is not forthcoming for whatever reason, he is powerless. But even so, you’d think he could appeal to the anti-Thaksin, anti-red factions in the military. One thing is always true in Thailand no matter what: The behind-the-scenes maneuvering are always Machiavellian. One never ever knows the real story.

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So, how does the military actually function? I mean, with all the mafias and factions and whatnot, what happens when there’s an actual need for the military to go shoot people, or at least look as if they’re seriously ready to do so?

I mean, in the American model, it’s all very straightforward - when the President says “If you do X, we will bomb the shit out of you,” it’s entirely credible, because no one wonders if the military will obey the President’s commands. How does defense and foreign policy work when there’s no one person who the military can be relied on to obey? I mean, the King doesn’t actually play an active role in government, does he?

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They don’t do very well. Witness the idiotic shooting war they lost to Laos in the 1980s. That was over ownership of sandbars in the Mekong River that appear only during the dry season, when the water level is low. it was definitively decided that Laos owned them. What a waste!

The king by law plays no role. Any discussion of him is best kept out, because my personal feelings could net me a prison term.

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I’m not sure what the “spin” is in foreign news coverage, but the only “political issue” for which the terrorist red-shirts are fighting is the restoration of Thaksin’s illicit billions. Most of the actual protestors are being paid (1000 baht per day from Central Thailand; men from the poorer Northeast region seem to get less).

We thought the government was waiting for the terrorists to prove, by the egregiousness of their conduct, that they deserve no quarter. How much more proof is needed? Would the U.S. government have offered to share power with Al-Qaeda?? :smack:

Something to remember about Thailand is that “Nevermind, No problem, Compromise” is the national motto. Even the most corrupt officials are never fired, just given “lateral promotions.”

Whatever Thailand’s faults may be, respect for His Majesty Bhumipol the Great has led to relatively stable and benign governance. A fear now is that the country will sink to the level formerly or currently “enjoyed” by other S.E. Asian countries.

As I mentioned, a personal friend was killed by the terrorists Friday night. Also, our nephew is a soldier in Bangkok now who hasn’t answered his cell-phone for more than 24 hours. Another soldier from our village went AWOL from Bangkok Sunday fearing for his life. I’ve viewed previous Thai crises with amused detachment, but no longer have that luxury.

PS: And by the way, political posters with Thaksin’s ugly face are still quite plentiful in our Province.

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No comment.

A leading global think tank does think we’re heading toward civil war, though. See here.

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The Prime Minister said “No more negotiation”, gave an ultimatum until tomorrow or else…
This sounds more forceful than all previous statements, I have the feeling that tomorrow the red shirts are going to get the fight they’ve been spoiling for. I hope it doesn’t spill over from the
“protest” site and that the public at large will realize, whatever the aftermath, that Abhisit tried hard to avoid conflict.

Sigh…
I’m afraid there will be blood, again, in the streets tomorrow.

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I had not heard the demand was put that forcefully, but then I did not hear him make it myself. The wife says he gave a deadline but didn’t catch if he said what would happen if the reds failed to meet it … again. Sort of sounds like more of the same. All I’ve heard up until now is the November elections could be off the table if the reds don’t cooperate. It’s about time to kick some red ass, as far as I’m concerned. If nothing else, the PM had a point over the weekend about the heightened danger with the new school year starting soon.

Of course, the reds did not end their protest today after Deputy PM reported to DSI headquarters to answer complaints made by relatives of the killed protesters. Again they said he had to appear at the CSB instead. What a bunch of assholes. They’ll simply keep coming up with new excuses.

Another consideration regarding army inaction is the army chief is retiring at the end of September, and word is he doesn’t want to go out with the taint of having killed fellow citizens spoiling his reputation.

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Wow. That think-tank is the International Crisis Group - I read a distressingly large portion of their output when I was in college. They’re very smart people.

For what it’s worth, their actual risk assessment just says that Thailand could go into civil war, not that it’s necessarily the likeliest outcome. http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/thailand/conflict-risk-alert-thailand.aspx

They’ve also posted some proposals for a way out of the mess - do you think they’re realistic?

[QUOTE]
What Should Be Done

The following steps should be taken urgently:

The creation of a high-level facilitation group of international figures. Nobel Laureate and Timor Leste President Jose Ramos Horta has visited Bangkok at his own initiative and could be joined in this effort by other figures, perhaps drawn from The Elders and the ranks of former senior government officials with experience in Thailand.

This group, which should be joined by independent Thai figures, should bring together the government and Red Shirts to encourage immediate steps to prevent violence, such as ending the military operation; the self-limitation of protests to a small, more symbolic number of people who do not disrupt life in Bangkok; and the formation of a national unity committee that pulls together people from all walks of life.

This committee should begin negotiations, facilitated by the international group, on an interim government of national unity and preparations for elections, although these will be controversial and should not be rushed into as quickly as demanded. The government must be led by someone from parliament but should be made up mostly of neutral, respected individuals from across society.

The committee should also facilitate the formation of an independent body to investigate the 10 April clashes between the security forces and Red Shirt protesters at Democracy Monument, as well as other violent incidents related to the current demonstrations.

Once the immediate crisis is defused, with a rapid return to the rule of law, political negotiations may require some time as they will involve confidence-building measures, including accountability on both sides for the violence. Politics needs to return to parliament. Thai political life will have to be refreshed with new elections and, perhaps, a new constitution to replace the country’s military-influenced charter.

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That’s all nice and reasonable, but the thing is that one of the sides in this situation is not motivated by the desire to work for the good of all of Thailand, but rather it’s a motley crew of paid stooges with the unspoken aim of reinstalling in power a megalomaniac. Kind of hard to negotiate a compromise with such a gang; as demonstrated by by their own actions.
The core problem of Thailand is corruption and with regards to the poorer areas it manifests itself politically with corrupt village leaders that take money in exchange of delivering votes. Please note at this moment that one of the demands of the reds is to get rid of a constitution that, among other things, states that vote buying will be punished with a banning from politics; also note that there’s widespread reports of people getting paid and transported to the protest sites.

The sad thing is that the current government has done much to address the grievances of the poor people in rural areas, while the reds have had zero proposals regarding policies to deal with the same problems. They want government dissolution, amnesty and removing inconvenient anti-corruption legislation.

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That. The International Crisis Group and all others like it are routinely laughed at by the locals. “They don’t understand Thailand” is the common refrain. Possibly more than any other people on Earth, Thais simply DO NOT stand for outsiders telling them what to do, no matter how reasonable the suggestions may be. Probably stems from having never been colonized; they’re not about to give anyone an inch.

Well, the PM IS sounding tougher. He says the rally MUST end TODAY (Wednesday). And the army may finally cut power and water to them if it doesn’t. Why they’ve been supplied with these all along is beyond me. I wonder whom the bill is sent to. Updates here and here.

A power cut would especially be a blessing for those living nearby who are forced to listen to this trash day and night. The wife knows some such residents, and they’ve told her it’s hell trying to sleep at night. Rabble-rousing speeches cranked up to full volume vilifying the government and everyone connected to it around the clock. I can’t even imagine what new stuff they could possibly keep coming up with to say.

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Pfft, they have generators and they can get water in if necessary. The occupation could keep going without a glitch.

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I’m all for giving them free water … shot straight from water cannons!