Theresa May intends to run as Tory leader in the next general election

I’m not buying it. I can’t imagine anyone in the Tories wanting her to continue on after the embarrassing debacle of her bungled campaign this year. Brexit is going to continue to be a nightmare, especially if Labour pushes for the soft Brexit and remaining a member of the Customs Union.

I highly doubt this parliament is going to run until 2022. Everyone can smell the blood in the water. I’ll be very interested in the party conferences this fall. Is Corbyn ready to be an adult and abandon his purity tests? Who will be the first Tory to openly challenge May? Usually the first one to stand up doesn’t succeed, as I’m sure Michael Heseltine will happily remind you. But, there will be challenges to May as she’s shown nothing in the way of leadership and cost the Tories their majority.

I’m with you. I notice Boris was first to pledge undying support, which in Toryspeak means " Pick me! Me! Me!"

There may be a stalking horse from among the visibly disgruntled, but I don’t know enough about the names I see in the papers to guess which one might go ahead and try (or whether they’d get over the threshold for a challenge, whatever that now is). Or of course, the men in suits may try to dampen everything down until someone younger and fresher than all of the usual suspects gets themselves enough of a track record to look like a serious candidate - I see Tom Tugendhat being mentioned quite a lot as a “maybe in a few years” prospect.

Soft Brexit has lots of negatives such as no control of immigration and no voting on EU policies.

May is saying this precisely because her position is tenuous and she wants to shore it up. It’s a “line in the sand” move. The fact that she’s even raising this now shows that she’s worried, particularly as Corbyn inexplicably remains on the ascendant despite every dirty trick deployed against him and his own…let’s call them “personal foibles”.

Personally I think Boris doesn’t have - and will never have - enough support to carry out a full-scale challenge. He might squeak through in an open contest but he’s had too many gaffes and has too many skeletons in his closet for a serious leadership fight.

There was nothing else she could say, to admit any other possibility would invite a challenge now.

The thing is… I feel that nobody in their right mind would voluntarily try to become leader of the Tories given the mess that politics is right now in the U.K… I can imagine many serious, sane candidates thinking to themselves: “Becoming leader of the Tory party under these circumstances? NO WAY!”

Any insights as to what made May want to take on the role originally? I have difficulty seeing why someone would have been eager to get the pig in a poke that was the UK prime ministership after Cameron.
Wouldn’t it be better for the Tories and the UK if May were explicitly an interim PM and party leader?

One political truism that spans all governments:

Anyone who would freely consent to run for office is, by that fact alone, not fit to serve.

Win or lose, on the other side of the pond, it might coax Hillary out for one last battle, even if her corpse has to be supported by an iron frame on top of her favourite charger at the Javits Center, and Donal ibn Trumpo, *Abu Ivanka al-Amriki *dies in terror.

Perhaps she thought that her, Merkel, and Hillary Clinton could be the three most powerful women in the world. She could tie herself to Clinton with the promise of a strong USA/UK free trade deal, making Brexit easier and calming the markets.

The difference between the three is that Angela at least gives off the aura of vague competence.

  1. we have control of immigration. Our government just didn’t bother to make efforts to control it to the poorly-visualised standards of Brexiters.

  2. should have thought about that before voting for Brexit. If it’s a choice between soft Brexit and no vote in Europe policies and hard Brexit with no vote in Europe policies, the former is better.

Better still, cancel Brexit.
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Because she thought she could. Self-doubt doesn’t appear to have been her weakness, judging by her years of stubborn survival at the Home Office (one of the most difficult and Heffalump-trap-ridden top-level job).

Because she thought she might have a better chance of making a silk purse, or at least cobbling together something serviceable, than any of the others.

Because the others were demonstrably hopeless for one reason or another. As someone pointed out recently, if it hadn’t been for an unguarded remark over a coffee in a motorway service station, we might have been landed with Andrea Leadsom.

Because she thought it was her time.

May is in an awful position. She campaigned to remain and probably doesn’t truly believe that leaving the European Union is the right thing to do. She’s well aware that there is a hardcore eurosceptic wing of her party that made things difficult for Thatcher and especially Major.

She probably felt secure as Labour seemed ready to break out into a civil war over Corbyn and the parliamentary Labour party’s hatred of him. Instead, she bungled an election far worse than Hillary Clinton did. She thought she’d get a large majority which would give her some breathing room for some Brexit decisions that would annoy the eurosceptic wing at times as well as the Kenneth Clarke wing at other times.

Now, she’s stuck with a fragile coalition. Labour is for now resigned to accept Corbyn. The SNP is weakening as there is no chance of a Scottish referendum and a lot of those SNP seats could easily fall to Labour either in a general election or any by-elections that might pop up.

It’s certainly going to be a fascinating time to follow UK politics. I’ve never looked forward to the party conferences so much.

New poll shows Labour with a 5 point lead over the Tories. The knives will be out for Theresa May.

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Andrea Leadsom - a name to conjure with. I know politicians aren’t what they were in terms of ability, but Jesus Christ.

The last point has to be the reason why May went for PM - politics and events are too unpredictable to pass up that sort of opportunity. No one gets that sort of role at the moment of their choosing, so unless you’re Churchill or someone of that ilk you either grab it or watch it disappear forever.

An example of missed opportunities is Michael Portillo - the heir apparent of the Tory party in the early 90s, a lock for future leadership when they thought Thatcherism would last forever. Times change, party was decimated in 97 and he famously lost his seat - got back into parliament in fairly short order IIRC but he didn’t have the heart for the new landscape and faded into political obscurity.
He makes travel documentaries on the telly nowadays (and seems very happy, tbf).

Churchill would not have got it at any other time than May 1940 - and actually he didn’t grab it, he let Halifax do the gentlemanly thing; whether he’d ever have got another chance if Halifax had said “Actually I think I should do it”, is just one of those things we can speculate about.

Is it time for Theresa May to get rid of Boris Johnson? I think she should demand his resignation from the cabinet. I don’t think anyone believes that Johnson is seriously a candidate for the leadership of the Tories now. Get rid of this clown, the UK is going to need a serious foreign secretary to deal with the chaos in foreign policy from the United States.

Boris is pretty much the same as Churchill in the 1930s, half American ( well he was born on the Lower East Side to impoverished Jewish parents: no, scratch that, on the Upper East Side to a mother descended from Jewish Americans ), lot of foreign blood, shifty, dodgy with money, strongly aristocratic, louche, loathed by most of the Tory party…

All he has to do is switch parties every now and then.
According to Wikipedia, his earliest recorded ambition was to be “world king