I just finished reading Third World America" by Arianna Huffington, and she makes a compelling argument that the USA becoming a third world nation is not only possible but probable. What do you think? Are we likely to see this in our lifetimes?
No. Baring some massive cataclysm, I don’t see the USA going from the wealthiest, most productive nation on Earth to one of the bottom countries in the space of a single generation. A more likely scenario would be other up and coming powers overtaking the USA and we become like Britain or Germany or something.
I don’t see that our nation is facing a more serious, unsolvable economic crisis than we did at the beginning half of this century. (I’m thinking about the era that also featured concentration of wealth into fewer hands all the way through to an actual disastrous depression.)
We will figure it out.
Does the author mean real 3rd World living standards or simply like the 3rd World in the sense that people tend to be rich or poor with just a small middle-class? The U.S. isn’t going to be a real 3rd World country any time soon for lots of reasons. The big ones are that our poor are still rich by world standards and we have massive amounts of land and natural resources. I suppose it could be true that the middle-class will become smaller and less affluent but that isn’t what I would call a true 3rd World scenario.
Didn’t read the linked article, but depending on what her definition of that is, I’d say it’s highly unlikely, and basically just sensationalist BS.
Why don’t you tell us what you find so compelling about her argument?
I agree, it is sensationalism. But 3rd-world type living conditions are now evident in decaying cities…like Detroit. Chicago city schools are now producing graduates who cannot read at an 8th grade level. Meanwhile, diseases that haven’t been seen in generations (whooping cough, mumps,etc.) are showing up.
Okey dokey. We’ll start with her definition of a Third World nation - a place where there are only two classes - the rich and everyone else. She argues that current and previous policies by the federal government of the US have created conditions where the Middle Class is disappearing (by slipping back economically in spite of all their efforts to maintain or get ahead).
She bases this on:
- The industrial base is disappearing in the US, taking with it manufacturing jobs.
- The education system is a disaster.
- The infrastructure of the US is crumbling, and necessary repairs are being put off.
- Massive amounts of federal money (i.e. taxpayer money, taken from the Middle Class) is being used to fund Wall Street and foreign wars (as she says about the Wall Street bail-outs - “socialized losses and privatized gains”).
- Massive amounts of federal money is not being used to help Middle Class people who are being hit with job loss, house foreclosures, rising costs of living, and bankruptcy due to health crises.
- The story of what is actually going on in the US is not being told. Media ignores it mostly, and politicians only talk about self-serving issues.
- Huge difference in living conditions between the top few percent of Americans and the rest, especially the very large group of poor Americans.*
- Mobility between the classes declining.
*This point is very interesting; from the book I referenced in the OP, page 17-18:
She bases this on:
- The industrial base is disappearing in the US, taking with it manufacturing jobs.
This point is both true and untrue but also self-correcting if her greater point stands. The U.S. still excels in high-tech manufacturing and is doing much better in getting other manufacturing like car assembly onshored again. That is the sector I consult for and it is thriving. The main issue with high-tech manufacturing is that it doesn’t take that many raw bodies to run a plant but they are good jobs. The problem with her point here is that, if the U.S. did start to become a 3rd world country, we would become extremely competitive for all kinds of manufacturing jobs again and that would be one of the things that sets a limit on how far we can fall.The natural resources, land, and worker base are already here
- The education system is a disaster.
That is only true in some schools at the primary and secondary level. Our undergraduate colleges and universities (which produce much of the middle-class) are great if not the best in the world in total and our graduate schools have no true rivals on a large scale.
- The infrastructure of the US is crumbling, and necessary repairs are being put off.
There is always work to be done on infrastructure so this is a lazy point to make because it is true in a way but it always true everywhere and has to be placed in comparison to gain an accurate picture. Has the author even seen true 3rd World infrastructure like in India or South America? Side roads with potholes don’t equal weekly electrical blackouts
- Massive amounts of federal money (i.e. taxpayer money, taken from the Middle Class) is being used to fund Wall Street and foreign wars (as she says about the Wall Street bail-outs - “socialized losses and privatized gains”).
Lots of people are against that but don’t jump to the conclusion that it is a harbinger of end-times.
- Massive amounts of federal money is not being used to help Middle Class people who are being hit with job loss, house foreclosures, rising costs of living, and bankruptcy due to health crises.
And I could write a book about how Middle-class overspending and a sense of entitlement got us into this crisis. I am not sure propping up middle-class lifestyles temporarily through government programs is any better than the int above. Everyone should learn to live within their means for long-term economic stability even if it means you have to settle for a house without a swimming pool.
- The story of what is actually going on in the US is not being told. Media ignores it mostly, and politicians only talk about self-serving issues.
I am shocked anyone would say this about politicians! I have never heard such lies.
- Huge difference in living conditions between the top few percent of Americans and the rest, especially the very large group of poor Americans.*
I honestly don’t care about that and don’t see why anyone else would either. The poor can comment on legitimate issues in their lifestyles but wealth is not a zero-sum game.
- Mobility between the classes declining.
Maybe as a group but I am still not convinced. I do know there is no true blocks for individuals to move between classes. Kids from the inner-city go to Harvard every year on full scholarships after all. As long as the options are there for individuals to do better if they choose a wise strategy, I am not really concerned about how many of them take the opportunity.
Thanks for taking the time to post that.
Maybe that’s because low-skilled manufacturing jobs are best done in Third World Countries these days. If you look at the countries these days with large manufacturing sectors, they are mostly Third World countries and countries that rely heavily on oil production. Link. The US isn’t that much different from other Western European countries, so unless we’re all headed for Third World Status, then I’m not convinced.
People have been saying that for decades. Besides, being a “disaster” isn’t a debatably position since that word has no precise meaning in this context.
Again, we hear this all the time, but how does it actually relate to goods being transported and people being able to get around? I can get whatever I want in a few days with a click of a mouse from any number of internet retailers.
She has a point, but this is not an ongoing thing. The bailout was world-wide, and we’re not doing it again.
The US had a housing bubble and is correcting. Putting “massive” amount of federal money into propping up unsustainable housing prices isn’t going to help. We have close to zero inflation right now. Link.
A statement that is impossible to prove, but no doubt lead to the conclusion that one must buy her book to counter this dearth of information.
Rich people getting richer doesn’t make regular people poorer unless they are actually getting poorer. But you don’t necessarily need a lot of social mobility to stay out of the Third World if you’re not already in the Third World.
Anyway, not really finding those arguments “compelling”.
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Okey dokey. We’ll start with her definition of a Third World nation - a place where there are only two classes - the rich and everyone else.
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Well, there you go…the US is definitely a 3rd world country then. Of course, so is everyone else, since indeed there are the rich, and then there is everyone else, in a gradual scale that decreases from whatever arbitrary level you set ‘rich’ at. 
Of course, it works both ways, as what was considered ‘middle class’ moves up as well as down…plus sideways. The ‘middle class’ is shrinking (depending on how you define that term, and who you ask…if you ASK people if they are in the ‘middle class’, most Americans would say ‘yes’, so in that sense it’s not really shrinking), but the upper class(es) are rising, as well as the lower class(es). The trouble with this is that it would take something really epic to cause the sort of imbalance you see in an actual, genuine ‘3rd world country’, where the norm is a very few rich people, a small middle class and a huge lower class. It would mean that the US would have to become incredibly poorer. Of course, to the Huffster, it’s all a zero sum game, so I guess we are on the verge of The Rich™ getting all the marbles and everyone else being epically poor.
Well, we are certainly not a large industrial or manufacturing nation…at least wrt to low end, low skilled (and high paying) JOBS. Which is hopefully what she meant, because if she actually thinks that we are losing our ‘industrial base’ then she is delusional, considering that the US manufactures a hell of a lot of high end and finished goods today…we just use a high level of automation. I wonder why SHE thinks that is…
Well, I agree with her here, sort of, but that doesn’t make us a 3rd world nation. Again, I wonder why she thinks our education system sucks, considering the huge amount we spend on it…and what she thinks can be done about that (besides ‘tax the rich and spend more on education…if we throw enough money at it, it’s bound to be better!’).
Again, true, as far as it goes…and the solution would be (well, ok…same as above)…?
As well as massive amounts of money to fund industrial and manufacturing bailouts, right? How’s GM doing these days, btw? Have they repaid all their loans yet? Depending on ones definition of ‘Wall Street’, a lot of the money they were ‘given’ for bailouts has been repaid. Personally, I’m all for letting companies fail…I wonder if she really is, if it comes down to it.
Regardless, I’m not seeing that as making us a 3rd world nation. Even in this nasty recession with all the bailouts and such having happened it doesn’t seem to be causing us to slip towards being 3rd world status any time soon. I have to wonder…does she actually know what a real, honest to gods 3rd world nation is like? Has she ever been to one? When was the last time she slept at a Holiday Inn Express, anyway?
Horseshit. Massive amounts of federal money has absolutely gone to the middle class wrt unemployment insurance and forgiveness of debt and housing (including extensions on foreclosures and such). Yeah, jobs haven’t been given to the middle classes (I mean, high paying, high benefit and low skilled jobs), despite a stimulus that promised to create a ton of new and lasting jobs, and costs are certainly rising (as for health care…wtf? Her side WON, remember? Where is the promised land of health care for everyone, cheaper and of better quality, blah blah blah? Oh, it’s not here yet…but, supposedly it’s going to be, someday, right? So, why are we headed towards being a 3rd world nation if it’s going to be such a great success a few years down the pike? And why is it on her list??), but we are in a world wide economic recession right now, so I don’t expect to see that either. It doesn’t make us headed towards being a 3rd world nation though. I mean, hows things in the workers paradise over on the continent? THEY have all that nice health care and such, right? All that stuff she dreams about. How are they doing, relative to us, economically speaking? Can’t say I’ve seen much about how the Europeans are booming in this current economy either.
What rock has she been hiding under? I hear about it all the time…especially the gloom and doomers.
Total horseshit. Yeah, there is a vast difference between my humble abode (2500 square feet of quaint suburban household…which is pretty standard for suburban middle class) and a billionaires mansion…but do you understand the vast difference between the average living conditions in the US (or Europe) and an ACTUAL 3rd world country? Does she? Hell, there is a vast difference between how our POOR live and how THEIR poor live…little stuff like actual sanitation, running water, electricity…stuff like that. It’s like comparing a guy driving a rare Ferrari and another guy driving an old, beat up VW Bug…and a guy driving that same Ferrari and some guy with not only no car, but no shoes either…and maybe no feet.
True, but it still exists…which isn’t the case in most 3rd world nations. And a lot of the decline in mobility stems from the fact that OUR middle class, especially our working, blue collar manufacturing classes were already at the top of their pay, and have declined because, well, they were making so much that companies found alternatives, including automation and outsourcing and offshoring. Also, we ARE in a world wide economic recession right now, so mobility is down everywhere. But looked at relative to the rest of the world, the US still has good mobility, and it’s upward as much as it’s downward, even if the changes from one ‘class’ to 2 or 3 higher ones is more rare now.
I just want to touch on this point.
There was an analysis in the San Jose Mercury News a week or so ago of the manufacturing situation in the Bay Area. They found, much to their own surprise, that the number of jobs in manufacturing in the Bay Area has been holding pretty steady for the last several years. But the kind of jobs these were, and the types of goods that were being manufactured, were changing drastically.
The jobs require higher levels of skills, people who can operate and program precision machinery.
The goods are none of those cheap consumer items you can buy at Wal-Mart, but expensive high-tech products that cost many thousands of dollars to millions, but very few companies have the know-how to make. An example they gave was Intuitive Surgical Systems, which makes the DaVinci robotic surgical system. Hospitals all around the world are buying them for millions of dollars each, and they are built in Sunnyvale.
ETA: I don’t know if I count as working in manufacturing. I’m a tiny part of a team that makes apps for mobile phones.
I sometimes worry that the US simply will never rein in deficit spending until it goes absolutely completely bankrupt, like a latter-day Habsburg Spain. We’re already at the point where simply not increasing the national debt further would require traumatic measures and every year it’s only going to get worse.
Whooping cough right now is more a function of anti-vax efforts to reduce the efficacy of the vaccine because they’re paranoid about vaccine side effects than anything else.
It’s a demonstration of first world complacency rather than a third world future.
There’s a natural human tendency that Americans exhibit very well, and that is to not react to something until there is a crisis. And then we tend to figure things out.
I’m not worried. There are structural changes that the entire world has to adjust to, and our society is one of the best at figuring out what has to be done and doing it when it really matters.
Is “third world” even a valid term anymore, 20+ years after the fall of the USSR?
Thanks for the responses - you haven’t convinced me yet, though.
A couple of points - Ms. Huffington makes the point that too big too fail means too big, period. I have a hard time arguing with that - maybe the bank bailouts should have included an orderly dismantling of the largest of the banks in the US.
Education - not only are the public schools part of the crumbling infrastructure, but the problems extend to the teachers and the results. The teachers are hard to fire if they aren’t performing due to a strong union, and the kids aren’t comparing well to other nations apparently. The post-secondary schools might be fine, but if you get out of public school not being able to read well or do math or understand science, you’re still not going to get far, are you?
Infrastructure - electrical grids and power systems, dams, sewers, water pipes, schools, waste-treatment facilities, airports, roads, bridges - according to the ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers), the US needs to invest 2.2 trillion dollars in infrastructure over the next five years to bring it up to a passable level - there is only 975 billion dollars budgeted for infrastructure over that period. The infrastructure problems speak to quality of life for everyone, as well as public safety concerns.
When was the last time you had difficulty getting from point A to point B? When was the last time you turned on the tap, and clean water didn’t come out? When was the last time you flicked a switch and the light didn’t come on (unless you had dead bulb)? How’s your internet connection as you posted this thread? When was the last time you tried to cross a bridge and it was closed because it had collapsed?
AH is an alarmist pimping a new book. And as one of the .01% of income earners, there is irony aplenty in her battle cry.
@ Shagnasty and Cat Whisperer,
The American public school system is better funded and more effective than most Western European or Asian schools. The difference is in demographics.
btw. Huffington may be on to something. I would recommend the rather chilling “Empire of Debt”.
Washington Post on the demographic point regarding schools. And as the expression goes “demography is destiny”. Not sure if Huffington would have the balls (jokes) to mention that.