Haha - guess you missed this one:
Jim Cramer: Obama Is Going To Obliterate Romney In A Historic Landslide. His prediction? Obama 440, Romney 98.
Bwaahahahaha! Laughed myself silly over that one.
Jim Cramer’s Brilliant Explanation Of Why He’s Predicting A Gigantic Obama Victory.
::wipes tears:: Freakin’ hilarious.
He was asking about the 2004 election, not this one. That is, who was predicting a Kerry landslide?
John - Actually, any post 2000 election will do. And while Dick Morris was hedging his bets some, that was in context of drumming up Super PAC funds from the gulls. Honestly, it’s a little late for that from Romney’s point of view.
And c’mon. What new information has emerged against a Romney landslide? I mean a scenario like that is prima facia detached from reality, given a dateline of October 30th. It was even published after hurricane Sandy hit. And yet this bozo is paraded across Fox News regularly, because of his insight into the electoral horserace.
To be fair, it’s for charity.
The fact that he’s willing to state his position and put it to the test suggests an empirical orientation that adaher and OMG lack. He also doesn’t post the same volume of utter blather.
I trust that he will be good on his word. Whether he steps up to the plate and reconsiders his former position, however narrowly, remains to be seen – assuming of course that his view is as dubious as I believe it to be.
It is hilarious* (and I cited him in another thread). But Jim Cramer is recognized as a clown and doesn’t have the traction that Dick Morris has.
Jim Cramer: “Plus this election is like the stock market, everyone’s long a close race. So I have to take the other side!”
I’m doing my part to change the electoral map of the future: I’m an angry old, middle-class white guy, and I’m planning on dying during this century.
Somebody here posted something brilliant. I can’t remember who or exactly the words, but it went something like:
If Romney wins, it proves the polls were skewed all along. If Obama wins, it will be because the polls were skewed all along (discouraging republicans and bolstering democrats).
Basically, heads I win, tails you lose. These people are never going to accept that they were wrong, if they were.
You make the mistake of thinking that extreme conservatives* give the first shit about facts. They want to live in a tribalistic Christian theocracy where evolution is a dirty word, abortions are illegal, and guns and the death penalty are applied to transgressors. As a collective whole, they’re intellectually incurious conspiracy theorists without regard for reason or the welfare of people they don’t personally know and care about. The *only *way to win is to refrain from interacting with them at all–or, at a minimum, refusing to discuss politics with them.
*I’m not referencing all Republicans here. Just the really stupid crazy assholes of [del]Texas and Alabama[/del]the world.
You’re not a man. You’re a talking, slithering, tower of hobo-semen.
That’s the only explanation for your behavior and characteristics.
Actually, Little Nemo claims that Clothy is a decent guy IRL. And I’ve brushed elbows online with guy in a few non-political threads and have enjoyed them.
Lobohan: I know we’re on the same side of the aisle, but IMHO your attacks on some of the conservatives on this board cover the range from unfair to unhinged. Yes, this is the pit: hence I can deliver this personal remark.
In general I find Cloth’s political remarks entertaining, in a Der Trihs sort of way.
To be fair, I’ll be running something like this. When your party cheats at Voter Suppression in a big way and you admit to it, then you’ve just robbed any victory of yours of legitimacy. If you don’t want that, don’t cheat.
Anyone who thinks extreme partisans are ever going to admit their mistakes and change their minds simply because of inconvenient facts coming to light hasn’t been reading this board very carefully.
For reals, and whatnot.
Ignore what now?
Deliver as you will. I have little doubt that Clothy loves his wife and finds genuine joy in teaching children to hit other people with their feet.
I don’t think he’s a mouth-breathing monster. I don’t think he is a serial killer. But he is willfully ignorant and certainly has no place in a board dedicated to *reducing *ignorance.
Der is absolutist, but he can reason. Clothy is a wind-up doll. He follows the track laid out by FOX News and is unable to do anything else.
If FOX News would actually coem out and say “look, we’re onservative and support the Republican Party” you could actually respect it. But holy shit.
Todays the day before the U.S. Presidential election, I wonder what’s on their site… type type click… IT’S A HUGE PICTURE OF OBAMA WITH THE HEADLINE OBAMA DIDN’T CALL LIBYA AN ACT OF TERRORISM!
(I will avoid much discussion of that issue and the impossibility of more information negating the fact he called it an “act of terror” elsewhere.)
Could a news organization have any more obvious a Hail Mary pass on their own website? Jesus. Is this story even a major concern with most people now?
Also on the front page:
BIAS ALERT: Worst Spin Since 2008
Biden Has Two-Gaffe Sunday
OPINION: Media Makes Outrageous Romney Claims Days Before Election
OPINION: Myths of Obama campaign
SWING TO MITT: Papers Flip, Back Romney
But the other side does it too, right? Well, no. I checked CNN’s website; there isn’t a single headline on the front page openly and obviously critical of Romney. There are competing opinion pieces arguing the merits of voting for either candidate.
Oh my. I felt like their map was a little ridiculous (TX going for Obama??) so I drew up my own Cramer fantasy map:
[big long CNN URL](http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/ecalculator#share-HID,AKR,FLD,NHD,MID,VTD,MED3,MER1,RID,NYD,PAD,NJD,DED,MDD,VAD,WVD,OHD,IND,ILD,CTD,WID,NCD,DCD,MAD,TNR,ARD,MOD,GAD,SCD,KYR,ALD,LAD,MSD,IAD,MND,OKR,TXR,NMD,KSR,NER5,SDR,NDR,WYR,MTD,COD,IDR,UTR,AZD,NVD,ORD,WAD,CAD #cnncalculator)
If Obama wins every swing state, he has 347 EVs. The polls in GA, SC, and AZ are generally only 5-10% Republican leaning so let’s give him those too: now we’re at 383. You scoff but given the demographics it’s not impossible that an excellent Democrat could contest those states as soon as the 2020s. But we’re not caught up to Cramer yet. I add IN, MT, and MO, the 2008 swingers who fell back to the Republican side: 407 EVs. Getting the remaining states is hard.
WV and AR have conservative Democratic bases which are basically the last leftovers of the old days when both parties were bigger tents. Let us also say that every nonwhite man, woman, and child in LA, MS, and AL vote for Obama, and Romney goes on national television Tuesday morning to announce that he really hated grits, that filthy commoners’ food, the whole time. Congrats! Obama has 441 EVs now. To match Cramer let’s say one of the congressional districts in Maine swings for Romney.
There you have it, that’s Obama’s path to 440 EVs. Note that him picking up the Mormon strongholds, the great plains states, or TX or AK are even more crazy to imagine.
To borrow a line from Louis CK, if Obama wins Arkansas and/or 440 EVs, I will rip my own asshole off, throw it at the wall, and jump through it to another dimension. Cramer’s pretty clever for this gambit to get people to talk about him though. I hadn’t given him nary a thought since his scuffle with the Daily Show in 2009.
I think that Hurricane Sandy ripped up the watershed from here to there?
Easier to draw the 400 EV map with O winning Texas. Given the changing demographics there and the 2008 results, it’s actually among the first ten states to flip blue in a landslide. Definitely before Arkansas, for example.
I’m trying to come up with a 440-EV-for-Obama map to attempt to see inside the fevered and broken mind of Jim Cramer. It’s hard to do without giving that EV to Romney in Maine, but that makes no sense. So I managed this:
Start with the common 303-235 prediction.
Obama then wins Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky, and Tennessee, owing to those states having substantial auto industries and thus loving Obama’s allegedly saving the auto industry. We’re up to 343.
Obama of course by now has won North Carolina and Florida, the other swing states. Obama 387.
Obama wins Georgia and Arizona as their large cities - few important states are so centred around one urban area - go crazy blue. Obama 414.
Obama wins Nebraska and Kansas (large university populations and great GOTV efforts along wioth the Cramer Blue Wave of unexpected Obama support) and Mississippi and Alabama (substantial black population spurred by GOTV, and burgeoning auto industries.)
Result: Obama 440, Romney 98. Here’s the map:
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=boVp
The thing is, even if he won the popular vote 55-45 as Cramer predicts, this would not happen. Obama would have to win the popular vote by, I’d guess, 13-15 points to get around 440 EVs. But I think it’d be these ones, although you might substitute West Virginia for Nebraska.
All of this is irrelevant. We’re not counting neutrinos or measuring a Hollywood actor’s real height here. There is no factual pre-existing election result, nor will the election be decided by some external natural event. The actual votes mostly haven’t happened and will be secret; and wherever there are electronic tabulation machines, the actual votes will be unknown. The counters will be able to make up a result tomorrow.
So Nate Silver is measuring what? Intentions that might change to make votes that will be counted then thrown away by the frauds in the Ohio county clerks’ and secretary of state’s offices.
When Romney wins (and he will, because the vote that counts is the vote of the person counting the votes, and enough of those are GOP fanatics), will that mean Nate Silver’s math was wrong? No, just that he was working from something with no legal or constitutional force.
Democracy is a scam, and the real epistemological watershed will be proving that it is.
I’m not too keen dissing the way somebody earns their living. Furthermore, judging from the martial arts threads I’ve seen no evidence that Clothahump’s dojo has a pro-thug slant, quite the contrary. It’s my impression that he genuinely cares about his students emotional and moral development, and I mean that in a constructive way. Of course in gun control and crime threads you get the typical bloodthirsty stuff.
I’ve come around to the view that some sort of oligarchy is the natural state of affairs. But there’s a yawning chasm between what we have today and, say, Ancient Rome. You can have economic growth and opportunity for the majority throughout their lifetime, while still rerouting a megachunk of the surplus goodies to a narrow class of financiers and real estate guys, the 0.1% really.
This always amuses me. That a paper with 108 Pulitzers has become a whipping boy for a network that employs Palin, Limbaugh, et al, is astounding.