This is Boehner's shutdown

[Fotheringay-Phipps]

@Happy_Lendervedder

I’m coming to the conclusion that Boehner and the Pubs don’t want this resolved.

Most people think the shutdown is a political loser for the Republicans. Perhaps more importantly, it’s being widely reported that the Democrats themselves think so too, which is why they’ve refused to budge an inch on anything.

The ones floating various proposals to try to end this are Republicans, not Democrats. Democrats are asking for complete and unconditional surrender.

So your thinking does not apear to reflect the thinking of the main actors.

I myself tend to agree with the CV on this. Although the new “piecemeal” approach could possibly have some potential.

ETA: the Senate is thought to be in play in 2014. The Republicans could very well lose their chance at control of the senate over this.

[BrainGlutton]

@Fotheringay-Phipps

The ones floating various proposals to try to end this are Republicans, not Democrats. Democrats are asking for complete and unconditional surrender.

No, Democrats are refusing to put repeal or defunding of the ACA on the table. Not at all the same thing.

[Happy_Lendervedder]

@Fotheringay-Phipps

Most people think the shutdown is a political loser for the Republicans. Perhaps more importantly, it’s being widely reported that the Democrats themselves think so too,

I’m not most people. And regardless of what I think, I’m talking about what the Republicans are thinking. They think that with enough monkey wrenches tossed into the federal government’s operations, people will just get fed up with Obama, who is the head of the federal government.

…which is why [the Dems] refused to budge an inch on anything…The ones floating various proposals to try to end this are Republicans, not Democrats. Democrats are asking for complete and unconditional surrender.

Well, that’s what you do with hostage-takers. Why would the hostages have to budge? The Pubs don’t like Obama, they don’t like that he passed healthcare reform, so they continue their PR assault on it and him, by connecting his signature legislation to the federal government shut-down. Fuck that. The Dems *should *not have to budge on this. They won. They passed the legislation, the president successfully applied his pen to the law, the Supreme Court cleared it, and the American people re-elected Obama who made it a cornerstone of his campaign.

So your thinking does not apear to reflect the thinking of the main actors.

It may not appear to reflect the public words of the main actors, but I contend that it does reflect their thinking.

[Happy_Lendervedder]

My point is, most people’s memories are short and simple. A year or two or ten down the road, they won’t remember the sausage-making of Congress. They won’t remember that the Republicans were in charge of a do-nothing Congress. They won’t remember the ins-and-outs of the shut down, with the evangelicals and Tea Partiers and Eric Cantor and Ted Cruz. They will remember that Obama was president. They will remember the shut-down was due to Obamacare.

Plain, simple, and the sausage-making details will go by the wayside. Obama is a failure. Obamacare is bad.

That’s the Republican hope anyway. They’re already the losers, so they’re hoping to bring Obama down to their level. That’s their only comfort in life and death.

[DigitalC]

Democrats SHOULD be asking for a complete and unconditional surrender. It is the only acceptable outcome. You can’t show the crazies that being crazy works, not even a little.

[Happy_Lendervedder]

And I actually think the WH realizes that the Pubs are doing this to fuck with Obama and legacy, which is why he is now repeatedly using John Boehner’s name when talking about the shutdown. He’s making sure that the press, the American people and long-term memories will associate this with Boehner. Political parties and Congresses and caucuses get forgotten. Names stick out. Fight fire with fire.

People remember the 95-96 shutdown as Gingrich’s Waterloo. Obama is making sure this will be Boehner’s.

[Fotheringay-Phipps]

@Happy_Lendervedder

Well, that’s what you do with hostage-takers. Why would the hostages have to budge?

And yet, that’s generally how it works. Hostage negotiations are SOP. The “hostages” don’t budge if they think they have nothing to lose. That’s not generally the case, and if someone is refusing to budge you would have to judge that he thinks he will gain more by holding firm. As seems to be the case here

@WSJ

Said a senior administration official: “We are winning…It doesn’t really matter to us” how long the shutdown lasts “because what matters is the end result.”

It may not appear to reflect the public words of the main actors, but I contend that it does reflect their thinking.

But your contention is essentially that their thinking is at odds with their actions, not just their words.

[Happy_Lendervedder]

@Fotheringay-Phipps

And yet, that’s generally how it works. Hostage negotiations are SOP. The “hostages” don’t budge if they think they have nothing to lose. That’s not generally the case, and if someone is refusing to budge you would have to judge that he thinks he will gain more by holding firm. As seems to be the case here

But your contention is essentially that their thinking is at odds with their actions, not just their words.

No, those are the WH’s (anonymous) public words, talking about the situation. More talk, just like what Boehner et al are doing. Obama, on the other hand, is attempting to re-direct public anger, and make sure that they don’t bring him and his presidential legacy down. Which is what the Pubs are attempting to do.

The only person who can end this is in the HoR. Not Obama, not Reid. All the Dems can do is make sure the public knows who is holding this country hostage. They are holding tight, refusing to negotiate with the hostage taker, but not letting the Pubs win the PR game, and ultimately bring Obama’s presidential legacy down. Which, again, is what the Pubs are attempting to do.

Obama does have something to lose by this shut-down, which is why he isn’t merely laying down while this Republican shitstorm occurs.

[Ludovic]

Can’t you take a pill for Boehner shutdown?

[BrainGlutton]

@Fotheringay-Phipps

Most people think the shutdown is a political loser for the Republicans.

If so, they’re right. Despite this little gem from Baghdad Bachmann.

[BrainGlutton]

@Ludovic

Can’t you take a pill for Boehner shutdown?

There is one, but it never came on the market; too many clinical-trial subjects turned orange.

[Happy_Lendervedder]

This is long game stuff for the GOP. The Pubs are looking beyond just the next swing of the club, they’re looking at the next green. They don’t care what public opinion of Congress is today or tomorrow.

Destroy Obama’s legacy, get people to see him as a failure, he’s at the helm during a government shutdown, every debt limit increase is surrounded with drama during his presidency, his signature legislation is forever connected with a government shutdown. The Pubs couldn’t stop his re-election, they couldn’t stop healthcare reform, but they can still make him and the ACA look bad. Extremely bad, is their hope.

They want to run against Obama and the ACA the same way Obama ran against Bush and Iraq. They want people so fucking fed up with Obamacare, Obamacare, Obamacare that they are begging for relief. They don’t want any success associated with the ACA to make it out into the public sphere. They couldn’t turn Obama into the next Carter, so now they so, so, so very desperately want Obama to be the next W. Tarnished, covered in shit, low approval ratings, hated.

They already see themselves as losers. Their only hope is to drag Obama down to their level of public hatred so they can use his bloated corpse (metaphorically speaking, Mr. Secret Serviceman) to use as a ladder to climb out of the shitpit in 2016, and maybe even 2014.

Obama followed such an atrocious presidency that, in theory, anything afterward would look phenomenal. The Pubs couldn’t let that happen if they want to retake the WH anytime soon. Or the HoR (which they were successful at in 2010). Or the Senate (which they are hoping to capture in 2014).

They especially see healthcare reform as a nail in the coffin for the GOP because in their eyes, this creates a whole 'nother constituency that will fall in love with Democrats for generations: the un- and -under-insured. It’s also why they won’t touch immigration reform under Obama’s watch. They don’t want to lose Latinos forever either.

They’re basically grasping for their very existence, and see the only way they can survive is by damaging Obama and not letting Obamacare get popular.

Obama and every single Democrat in Washington need to unrelentingly tie this shutdown to Boehner. Not the republicans, not the Tea party, not Ted Cruz. Boehner. Beyond that, I don’t know what else they can do to keep from being dragged down. Hope for wild success in the implementation of the ACA, I suppose. Or at least take a page from the Pub PR playbook and mercilessly publicize the successes.

[BrainGlutton]

@Happy_Lendervedder

This is long game stuff for the GOP. The Pubs are looking beyond just the next swing of the club, they’re looking at the next green.

They never did that before. What brought this on?

[DSeid]

@BrainGlutton

If so, they’re right. Despite this little gem from Baghdad Bachmann.

Yet the numbers in that link are not so sanguine BG.

Republicans in Congress receive more of the blame for the shutdown: 44 percent of Americans blame them, while 35 percent put more blame on President Obama and the Democrats in Congress. These views are virtually the same as they were last week before the shutdown, when Americans were asked who they would blame if a shutdown occurred. … Most Americans want compromise. Majorities think the President and the Democrats in Congress (76 percent) and the Republicans in Congress (78 percent) should compromise in order to come to an agreement on the budget. … Thirty-eight percent of Republicans say members of their party in Congress should stick to their positions even if it means not coming to an agreement, while 36 percent of Democrats say that about their party.

So sure 44% of Americans blame the Tea Partiers. But let’s face it, few in that 44% matter to their districts and in overall public opinion they have been so low that they have little to lose.

35% blaming the Democrats and Obama is OTOH a surprisingly big number and a solid majority of Democrats, very surprisngly to me, want a “compromise” solution.

I don’t see that poll as numbers to crow about. If I was a Tea Partier I’d read that as showing that Obama will be under sizable pressure to give enough that I can walk away declaring victory and that he will share in the blame if this explodes the economy … yes, from their perspective “their fault” will not matter to the public at all in a few years, it was on his watch.

Exploding the economy is worth it to them.

[Left_Hand_of_Dorkness]

@Fotheringay-Phipps

As seems to be the case here

Weird quote, with the ellipses and the mid-quote paraphrase to allow three different phrases and the paraphrase to be linked together into a mighty cynical sentence. It’s an anonymous source, so the source is unlikely to come forth to correct the quote with context.

Which is to say I’ve seen better journalism.

[Happy_Lendervedder]

@BrainGlutton

They never did that before. What brought this on?

Survival. Many Republicans feel Obama and the Democrats are setting things up for long-term electoral success, but more than that even: crushing conservatives. In their mind, Obama’s not just a president from the other party. He represents the absolute opposite of what the Republican Party has aligned itself with for the past 40 years. He is the epitome of secular values, embracing foreign cultures, minorities, government assistance, etc. They see everything he does as being politically calculating to obliterate all that white, Christian, conservative, hard-working middle America cares about. Obamacare wasn’t something to help the poor or sick, it was a tool to create more dependency on government, and therefore lock in a voting block for the Dems. Never mind that the Pubs designed the actual model for Obamacare, Obama and the Dems passed it. Therefore, Obama and the Dems will get credit for it with voters…unless the Pubs can make it smell like such shit that the voters will *blame *Obama for imposing it upon them.

Here are the results of an interesting focus group. Say what you will about the source, but these guys are paid to research the opposition. They’re not going to make shit up or skew the results to make themselves feel good, superior or vindicated. They do this stuff to really understand what they’re up against politically, in this case rank-and-file conservatives.

Republicans/conservatives feel cornered, and will do whatever it takes for their party and values and priorities to survive. Even if it means melting the US economy in the process. For some conservatives in the focus group, they even feel personally targeted, so I imagine the motivation of Republicans right now is more than just the survival of the party, it’s their own personal survival in what they perceive to be an increasingly-hostile environment, an America that’s “different” than how it used to be.

This shutdown is meant to further tarnish Obama, I’m wholly convinced. The Pubs may not have planned on doing this from the get-go, but tactics evolve and can’t always be anticipated three months (or even three days) in advance. Their strategy, however, has never wavered-- destroy Obama’s legacy.

[BrainGlutton]

@Happy_Lendervedder

Survival. Many Republicans feel Obama and the Democrats are setting things up for long-term electoral success, but more than that even: crushing conservatives. In their mind, Obama’s not just a president from the other party. He represents the absolute opposite of what the Republican Party has aligned itself with for the past 40 years. He is the epitome of secular values, embracing foreign cultures, minorities, government assistance, etc. They see everything he does as being politically calculating to obliterate all that white, Christian, conservative, hard-working middle America cares about.

:mad: All right, who spilled the beans?!

@Happy_Lendervedder

Obamacare wasn’t something to help the poor or sick, it was a tool to create more dependency on government, and therefore lock in a voting block for the Dems.

They’ve caught on, then. You see, we get the thin end of the spike in here, the bare beginnings of social democracy, weak solution, the first hit’s free, people get hooked; it’s the hard stuff next, the Canuckistan Red, pure single-payer; and soon we’re speedballing a cocktail of redistributive taxes and inflation-adjusted living-minimum wages and government job programs and labor-friendly legislation and worker’s-coop businesses; and before you know it, America is being run like Sweden!* :eek:

*(BTW, if that means we have to have a King, dibs.)

[Jophiel]

@DSeid

35% blaming the Democrats and Obama is OTOH a surprisingly big number

Really? I’d figure a third of the nation is firmly in the “MY side is RIGHT, that side is WRONG” camp no matter what the topic is. I’d figure that’s nearly the base level for any partisan political debate these days.

[wonky]

Happy Lendervedder, your posts in this thread have been really interesting and illuminating, even if I don’t agree with all of your conclusions. I just wanted to say thanks for the insights.

[Happy_Lendervedder]

Glad to be an insighter! And please…call me Happy.