Newt Gingrich has a commentary out today in which he speaks to recent polling about the shut down.
Like Gingrich, I simply assumed that with the left friendly media’s help the vast majority of people would blame the Republicans. Perhaps this is even more true because I’ve been on the SDMB a lot recently and it’s simply accepted as fact here by most that the shutdown is entirely the fault of the GOP.
However, he says the polling tells a different story…
Is this true? I’ll go looking for some more polls to see what else is out there. But if this is even halfway true then I’m very surprised.
I was tempted to roll my eyes when the GOP House was calling this “Obama’s” shutdown in response to Obama and others calling it “Boehner’s” shutdown. I still think that’s a silly way to frame the debate and only true Conservative cool aid drinkers would buy it.
But it is true that Obama seems to be vocal about refusing to negotiate so sternly that it could play against him. I think it’s possible that Obama is making the same assumption many on the left are: Negotiation with the Tea Party is like negotiating with terrorists and he just won’t do it since this is a path that he never wants to go down.
I know it’s unrealistic to ask that posters not give their opinions about who is to blame for the shutdown. Of course we’ll have many people arguing that YES the Tea Party is 100% responsible and any poll showing otherwise is just ignorance on the part of the public.
However, if this poll is correct there is something worth discussing here. If the public is blaming Obama nearly as much as they are blaming the GOP then that changes everything.
The whole storyis this: while the public generally heaps significant amount of blame on both sides, there is significantly more blame put on the Republicans (up to 20%, depending on the poll) than on Obama, and moderately more blame than on the Democrats as a whole. In addition, the trend is in the favor of the Democrats- more people blame the Republicans than they did a week ago, and the “blame deficit” (difference between the disapproval and approval on the handling of the shutdown mess) is growing for the Republicans (and it’s HUGE- like 46 points), while it’s shrinking for Obama (to around 6 points or so).
What “left friendly media?” I think your premise is flawed. I do not buy the “liberal bias” in the media if the lies about the PPACA are able to grow and flourish so efficiently. The right wing has its media outlets, too. They just like to whine a lot more.
The “left friendly media” has to give equal weight to the GOPs insane talking points in order to seem balanced, real journalism would be a constant calling of the republicans on their bullshit. As far as the poll results go “we are not getting our ass kicked as bad we thought we might” is really reaching as far as looking for a positive as you can get. The republicans are taking a beating no matter how you look at it.
The shutdown could have easily been avoided by a total capitulation by the Dems. So, part of the blame is theirs, because they refuse to lube up and bend over.
I’d be very wary of trusting Gingrich’s assessment of the public mood. The man was absolutely gobsmacked on election night when he saw the magnitude of Romney’s loss, even though the polls had been pointing in that direction for weeks. Gingrich just doesn’t have a very good track record when it comes to assessing what the country as a whole is thinking.
For as long as I’ve been alive, Republicans have talked about shutting down government, ending, it defunding it in sections.
Now they’ve done it. And I’m supposed to believe it wasn’t them?
Everybody knows that America is basically conservative, a center-right country. No need to prove that, it is common knowledge. Therefore, if the Dems win, its because they are cheating. They are very clever at cheating, but its hard to prove, but that it is why they are so adamant about making it easy for illegal aliens to vote. And stuff.
Since the Dems are cheating, then they don’t really represent the will of the people (see premise A, above…) Therefore, what appears to be illicit and unfair is actually legitimate, because they are cheaters. When things are finally made right, the Republicans can stop doing this sort of stuff, because they won’t have to. Also, Dems are homos.
Still, Gingrich wasn’t very good at assessing public opinion when he shut the government in '95, was he? Why does he think that things will break differently this time?
It seems somewhat unreasonable on Gingrich’s part to look at a conclusion that doesn’t bear out and then jump straight to just one half of one’s hypothesis as explaining the result.
That said, I would be interested in seeing some polls that compare belief in who’s to blame with opinions on ACA. I imagine they’re fairly well aligned, but it’s possibly very interesting.
I’ve heard that people seem to like the Affordable Care Act when it’s provisions are explained to them, but they are very much against the Obamacare-that-is-socialist-and-hates-baby-Jesus Act
But they always did before! What’s made them so stubborn now?!