This is interesting. Saddam really did have WMD's.

[SteveG1]

@Lute Skywatcher

You can smell a sound?

Damn. Usually I tease other people for mixing metaphors. I’m usually not as stupid as I look (I hope?).

[DrDeth]

@glee

For a decent debate, you need two sides. The only person who thinks anything of this story is Clothahump, and he probably won’t be back.

Also it won’t get ugly. There’s no evidence there were any WMDs, nor that there was the capability to produce them.

No, I have always said that SH moving a small amount of weapons or evidence for weapons to Syria was a distinct possibility. Not only aircraft but Isreali intelligence reported many truck convoys going from Iraq to Syria. This was in the period after the Ulitmatum, but before Military action.

Certainly there was something in all those trucks and planes. If you want to believe it was Saddam’s porn collection, I can’t stop you. :dubious: :rolleyes:

The stuff Blair was talking about is the “missing 10%” of the Gulfwar I stuff. That’s the figure that the UN & Blix came up with- not us or Tony Blair. As anyone but the most ignorant know- the Iraqis had hundreds of tonnes of WMD during Gulf War I. Afterwards, the UN came in and destroyed what they thought was 90%. SH insisted it was 100%- that the rest had been lost, destroyed or it was just bad recordkeeping. Going in, even Blix thought they’d find some of that. They didn’t. At this point is time I’d accept “bad recordkeeping” but with the desert being so vast, “lost” is not impossible. Maybe some small amount of this outdated ordinance was moved to Syria, I don’t know. But honestly, this stuff wasn’t much of a threat to anyone but the Kurds.

Then there was the “new stuff”. Saddam gave every appearance of getting new stuff. Intelligence said he was buying it or making it. After the Ultimatum and before Military actions- Isreali Int said that much stuff was being moved clandestinely to Syria. Then, after we got in, there was just about nothing. A few SCUDs that had been converted illegally- but they didn’t have Gas/Biol warheads. Maybe they were meant to have them- who knows? But they were illegal in any case. A few old shells were found- not a theat at all. Some hints- nothing solid. So:

1. Saddam acted like he had WMD- fact
2. Intel said he had them too (but some of this intel was crap)- fact
3. Much crap was moved to Syria- fact.
4. No significant WMD’s were found in Iraq- fact.

Thus, you have the following possibilities:
A. There were never any new WMD- Saddam was bluffing, all the Intel was wrong.
B. We just haven’t found them yet- VERY dubious :dubious: - except perhaps for some old pre-GulfwarI crap lying under the desert sands.
C: there were some new WMDs- prototypes, ect -the start of a new arsenal- and Saddam moved them to Syria.

In the case of A&B, you then have to explain just what was moved to Syria. I can certainly accept “loot”. But I think there was the start of the new WMD arsenal, too. Unless the Syrians 'fess up, we’ll never be able to confirm it.

However, this new report is new evidence of “C”.

[ElvisL1ves]

Or you could listen to the Bush Administration’s own Iraq Study Group, whose final report on Iraq’s WMD’s (the Duelfer Report) [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_Survey_Group] was that:

**Iraq’s WMD programs had decayed significantly since the end of the first Gulf War. **

No senior Iraqi official interviewed by the ISG believed that Saddam had forsaken WMD forever.

**Iraq had no deployable WMD of any kind as of March 2003 and had no production since 1991. **

The ISG judged that in March 2003, Iraq would have had the ability to produce large quantities of Sulfur Mustard in 3-6 months, and large quantities of nerve agent in 2 years.
There was no proof of any biological weapons stocks since 1991. **
**
Iraq’s nuclear program was terminated in 1991, at which point micrograms of enriched uranium had been produced from a single test gas centrifuge.

Iraq had intended to restart all banned weapons programs as soon as multilateral sanctions against it had been dropped, a prospect that the Iraqi government saw coming soon.

Smuggling was used by Iraq to rebuild as much of its WMD program as could be hidden from U.N. weapons inspectors.

Iraq had an effective system for the procurement of items banned by sanctions.

**Until March 2003, Saddam Hussein convinced his top military commanders that Iraq did indeed possess WMD that could be used against any U.S. invasion force, in order to prevent a coup over the prospects of fighting the U.S.-led Coalition without these weapons. **

Iraq used procurement contracts allowed under the Oil for Food program to buy influence among U.N. Security Council member states including France, China, and Russia, as well as dozens of prominent journalists and anti-sanctions activists.

But anyone who still wants to insist it’s possible either the stuff was there, or that it’s now in Syria, must understand that their view is not in accord with the facts. Won’t stop the Sams of the world, of course, but you seem like a reasonable sort.

[Zoe]

mswas: The issue is that people just jump to a conclusion that’s the most palatable and they believe it.

Actually, if memory serves me correctly, it wasn’t just Republicans and Conservatives that were surprised when no WMD were found. It would have been very “palatable” to have doubted the Administration’s claims from the beginning. We didn’t know that someone was screwing the intelligence. Colin Powell’s address to the UN was what convinced me.

So in this case, we didn’t just jump to the conclusion that there were no weapons of mass destruction. It became fairly obvious over a long period of time and after many investigations and reports by people in positions of trust and authority.

But, mswas, if it is true for you that you believe something just because you want to believe it, you might ask yourself why you would want to believe so many negative qualities about the people who post here.

And why do you generalize so much about such a diverse group?

[Rachm_Qoch]

@What Exit?

I hope that was addressed to mswas. It was his cite and my reply.
I was simply conceding a point.

Whoops! I should have addressed it straight to mswas(sorry!)

[Baldwin]

In some cases, absence of evidence is in fact evidence of absence.

Say, no sign of Clothahump. Doesn’t he have a habit of starting a thread with a provocative, sometimes spectacularly stupid post, then disappearing? We need a word to describe that behavior. Something like “fishing”.

[Princhester]

@mswas

It’s one thing to go forward pragmatically with a certain position on something while lacking evidence, it’s another thing to scoff at the possibility that your position is incorrect even though their is insufficient evidence to come to a solid conclusion either way about something.

Those in this thread decrying the OP are not scoffing at the possibility that they are wrong about WMD, they are scoffing at the OP for suggesting that some piddling hearsay from a known liar is sufficient evidence to come to a conclusion suggested by the preponderance of the evidence.

So presumably you should support them.

@Case Sensitive

Well, I don’t know much about the logistics of transporting chemical weapons, but I’d be willing to bet that they don’t come in 44 gallon drums that you can just throw in the back of a plane, skull and crossbones or not. Maybe it was pirate treasure.

Nope. Then it would have been in wooden crates with arched lids, silly.

[FinnAgain]

@Baldwin

In some cases, absence of evidence is in fact evidence of absence.

Indeed, to quote Carl Sagan:

‘A fire-breathing dragon lives in my garage.’

Suppose I seriously make such an assertion to you. Surely you’d want to check it out, see for yourself. There have been innumerable stories of dragons over the centuries, but no real evidence. What an opportunity!

‘Show me,’ you say. I lead you to my garage. You look inside and see a ladder, some empty paint cans, an old tricycle – but no dragon.

‘Where’s the dragon?’ you ask.

‘Oh, she’s right here,’ I reply, waving vaguely. ‘I neglected to mention that she’s an invisible dragon.’

You propose spreading flour on the floor of the garage to capture the dragon’s footprints.

‘Good idea,’ I say, ‘but this dragon floats in the air.’

Then you’ll use an infrared sensor to detect the invisible fire.

‘Good idea, but the invisible fire is also heatless.’

You’ll spray paint the dragon to make her visible.

‘Good idea, except she’s an incorporeal dragon and the paint won’t stick.’

And so on. I counter every physical test you propose with a special explanation of why it won’t work.

Now, what’s the difference between an invisible, incorporeal, floating dragon who spits heatless fire, and no dragon at all? If there’s no way to disprove my contention, no conceivable experiment that would count against it, what does it mean to say that my dragon exists? Claims that cannot be tested, assertions immune to disproof are veridically worthless, whatever value they may have in inspiring our sense of wonder. What I’m asking you to do comes down to believing, in the absence of evidence, on my say-so.

[EddyTeddyFreddy]

@Baldwin

Say, no sign of Clothahump. Doesn’t he have a habit of starting a thread with a provocative, sometimes spectacularly stupid post, then disappearing? We need a word to describe that behavior. Something like “fishing”.

Maybe he’s out cruising on a trawler?

[Princhester]

Damn. There should be a “note” before “suggested” in my last post.

[Princhester]

Or even a “not”. As in, “it’s not my bloody day, clearly”.

[Sevastopol]

@Princhester

Or even a “not”. As in, “it’s not my bloody day, clearly”.

Which “suggested”?

[Sevastopol]

Ooopsie, my mistake.

[Mangetout]

For fucks sake; at the heat death of the universe, there will be a quiet little voice saying “We really found them this time, honest!”. And it will still be a canister of fucking talcum powder or some such.

[tagos]

Note also the guy’s bio does not state when he was Number 2 in the airforce. As he’s now high up in the Iraq govt I suspect it was not recently.

Worth checking his bio - it lacks any specifics, which I take as another sure sign he’s just another lying toerag out to make a buck. Ten years time we’ll find he’s a Moroccan Kebab-Seller.

[mhendo]

@Baldwin

Say, no sign of Clothahump. Doesn’t he have a habit of starting a thread with a provocative, sometimes spectacularly stupid post, then disappearing? We need a word to describe that behavior. Something like “fishing”.

Well, to be fair, it’s not like he’s just abandoned this thread in particular. A search of his posts shows that the OP for this thread was his last contribution to the SDMB. He hasn’t made a post since 11.38am (Eastern) yesterday, so it is possible he’s been unable to return to his computer. I’m always willing to give people the benefit of the doubt over stuff like this because, hard as it might be to believe, plenty of folks have lives outside of these message boards.

I would expect, though, when he does return to the boards, that this would be among the first threads he would visit. If he starts participating in other threads, and ignores this one, then we can accuse him of punking out.

[tagos]

He’ll be back with the guys latest claims that the alleged Jordanian chemical attack was Iraq stuff Al-Q were given by Syria.

Then I’d be forced to post this link

Chemical was Sulphuric Acid

Which is not a WMD.

[What_Exit]

@mhendo

Well, to be fair, it’s not like he’s just abandoned this thread in particular. A search of his posts shows that the OP for this thread was his last contribution to the SDMB. He hasn’t made a post since 11.38am (Eastern) yesterday, so it is possible he’s been unable to return to his computer. I’m always willing to give people the benefit of the doubt over stuff like this because, hard as it might be to believe, plenty of folks have lives outside of these message boards.

I would expect, though, when he does return to the boards, that this would be among the first threads he would visit. If he starts participating in other threads, and ignores this one, then we can accuse him of punking out.

**Mhendo **, he does have a habit of Posting controversial Pit Post and disappearing for extended periods. If you feel like it, look for all threads started by Clothahump and you’ll find a pattern of dumb ops and Post & Run activity.
I will say his ops are improving, but still pretty weak.

Jim

[mhendo]

@What Exit?

**Mhendo **, he does have a habit of Posting controversial Pit Post and disappearing for extended periods. If you feel like it, look for all threads started by Clothahump and you’ll find a pattern of dumb ops and Post & Run activity.
I will say his ops are improving, but still pretty weak.

Oh, i’m well aware of his posting history, and personally i think he’s a fucking douchebag with the intelligence of a gnat and the integrity of an Enron executive.

And it won’t surprise me at all if he does, in fact, punk out of this thread, or return to it with a series of lame non-sequiturs that have nothing to do with the iossue at hand.

But i believe in giving even the biggest morons the benefit of the doubt regarding their return to their own trainwreck threads and, as of this morning, his absence from this thread can be explained by his complete absence from the SDMB.

[What_Exit]

@mhendo

Oh, i’m well aware of his posting history, and personally i think he’s a fucking douchebag with the intelligence of a gnat and the integrity of an Enron executive.

And it won’t surprise me at all if he does, in fact, punk out of this thread, or return to it with a series of lame non-sequiturs that have nothing to do with the iossue at hand.

But i believe in giving even the biggest morons the benefit of the doubt regarding their return to their own trainwreck threads and, as of this morning, his absence from this thread can be explained by his complete absence from the SDMB.

That’s fair, more than fair really.

Jim