Sitting here at a luncheon in Ukraine and everyone (about 8 adults, not including Inna and myself) thinks this was an operation by the Trump team. One man leaned over, looked me in the eye, and using the depths of his available English, said… “marketing”.
I see trump has posted on truth social :
(quoted here.)
I want to thank The United States Secret Service, and all of Law Enforcement, for their rapid response on the shooting that just took place in Butler, Pennsylvania. Most importantly, I want to extend my condolences to the family of the person at the Rally who was killed, and also to the family of another person that was badly injured. It is incredible that such an act can take place in our Country. Nothing is known at this time about the shooter, who is now dead. I was shot with a bullet that pierced the upper part of my right ear. I knew immediately that something was wrong in that I heard a whizzing sound, shots, and immediately felt the bullet ripping through the skin. Much bleeding took place, so I realized then what was happening. GOD BLESS AMERICA!
My bolding … is it really incredible ? really ?
It’s only July – I don’t think this will have a big impact, unless it inspires other attacks (whether “retaliatory” attacks on Democrats or more on Trump/Republicans). It may increase attention on the race overall, which is probably a good thing overall.
If Americans really want Trump again, that’s what we’ll get. I still think there’s a very good chance the country doesn’t want more Trump insanity. We’ll see in Nov.
My instinct is that Biden lost the election at the debate. And it doesn’t matter if he’s really totally with it. Elections aren’t won or lost on the truth, they are won and lost on feelings and impressions. And he gave a bad impression.
So i don’t this this matters for the election.
But i also think it’s not more than a short term bump politically.
So I don’t know where to put what, with the two threads. Because this is an actual thing that’s happening, but it is also in its way inherently commentary.
Anyway, over at Breitbart the conspiracy machine is already in full force. I mean, it’s exactly what you’d expect- leftist soy boy goes deep undercover as a RWNJ.
MAGA: “We need to shoot all the pedophiles.”
MAGA: “Oh, no! They shot my favorite pedophile!”
No, it is not:
Incidentally, no way in hell Trump wrote that post. Despite the illiteracy of the random capitalization, the generally correct grammar and empathy expressed are clear evidence of the writings of a minion while Trump himself nurses his ear and throws ketchup and plots his revenge against anyone and everyone who is anywhere to the left of the Third Reich.
I admire your adventurism and bravery in venturing into a war zone. Stay safe! My brother visited Ukraine many years ago, but things were peaceful then, and he did have a wonderful and memorable time. But I think the conspiracy theory is bullshit and just stems from a culture over there that was long dominated by the Soviet Union and in which corruption and conspiracies are justifiably seen as inherent in the political process.
Or IOW, Ukraine has been recovering for 33 years from the kind of rampant corruption and tyrannical oppression that Trump wishes to bring to America.almost immediately after he assumes office.
I was surprised to hear a person I knew declare that he one vote for the candidate he thought would win, not on the candidate’s political beliefs.
… or they fucking hate the guy for the shit he’s done to their country and President.
The pithy quote about “soap, ballot, jury, and ammo in that order” as the four boxes of liberty aside, I don’t think anyone really wants the last one to stop Trump or any other politician.
I largely agree with @Cervaise 's comments. The MAGAs think they can “vote harder” because of this, but that wont make a difference in November. The Democrats have the numbers and the issues momentum, even in some key purple states, but they need to figure out how to motivate their voters to, ya know, actually vote. Right now I am not sure they have the answer to that one.
Well according to the SCOTUS Presidential Immunity ruling, he would be well within his rights to do so.
Rumour has it the shooter was actually Republican.
NPR and others are reporting this now:
Crooks was a registered Republican who donated $15 through ActBlue, the Democratic-allied organization, in 2021. That’s according to Pennsylvania voter registration and FEC data
I believe just the opposite is true. A narcissist doesn’t have a strong core personality. Narcissism itself (believing that you are the only person that matters) is an immense unconscious bluff rooted in a deep fear that you don’t matter at all. Cf. Trump’s relationship with his dad. Metaphors (Biblical?) about houses built on sand v. those built on rock spring to mind.
Joe Biden has solid inner strength and values. For decades, he has demonstrated deep resilience, having survived political and personal tragedies and blows (though not being shot at). Trump can only fantasize about being this strong-- and it’s clear that in his fantasies he is a strong man-- the strongest man in history. But he is as weak and as fragile as a blown glass figurine. He’ll keep on with the bluff and bluster as best he can, but the cracks are there and they will out.
IMHO the advantage from Trump is in two main areas.
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Center right Republicans who had started to move left to avoid being associated with “the Party of Crazy” will be likelier to go back to Trump. Even if it turns out this guy was a right winger, attempts will be made to paint him as antifa / far left / a crazed liberal / whatever, and some will believe that.
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This gives Trump the opportunity to hole up in Mar-a-Lago and occasionally issue some statements about “bringing the country together”. He no longer has to campaign and no longer has to keep saying crazy things to appeal to the MAGA base. That will also help him with the center right voters.
I agree with all this, but I think it’s even simpler:
This incident (regardless of the shooter’s politics or motives) reinforces the (factually wrong) Republican narrative that the US is a crime-ridden mess under Biden. (This indirectly touches on other Republican fears that are largely factually wrong, like the economy and immigration).
In short, “See? America is going to hell in a hand-basket, and Trump will bring us back to the glory days of 2017-2020.” It will bring out a few extra thousand to the polls (most of whom would have sat this election out) — which, IF Biden hadn’t blown the age thing, might have made an important difference in the electoral count….BUT since Biden is (thanks to the ongoing saga since the debate) quite likely to lose anyway, this incident won’t matter much after all.
Also, JUST as the momentum was FINALLY shifting toward Biden dropping out (which, IMHO, would give the Democrats a slightly better shot at winning than if he stays in), this puts all that on the back-burner, giving Biden time to regroup (and to more plausibly claim that it really is getting too late to change candidates).
Man, July has not been a good month for the Democrats.
And it’s only the 14th. Viva la fuckin’ France.
The Left will now back down from it’s harshest anti-Trump rhetoric. The Right will increase their anti-Democrat, anti-Biden, anti-Freedom, pro-fascist-dictator rhetoric. This is because the Left is sawft and would rather avoid offending anyone than winning.
I’d say it’s simpler still: imagine if, a whole month ago, some brand-new right-wing poster had made their debut here by saying we’ll be able to sum this election up in one split-screen meme — with Trump, on the one side, shot at and bloodied but standing with a fist in front of the American flag while talking about the importance of continuing the fight — and Biden, on the other side, talking about making sure that we’re able to make every single solitary person eligible for what I’ve been able to do with the COVID. Excuse me. With dealing with everything we have to do with. Look, if. We finally beat Medicare.
Would we have laughed our asses off at the blatant wish fulfillment on display? Yeah, sure, buddy; that best-case scenario could toootally play out for you…