Okay, it is a little early for this, but I just saw what claims to be a Polymarket graph on Facebook that says that New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani has just passed President Trump as the favorite.
Up until this point, I had, “If the Democrats take both the House and the Senate, future Speaker of the House Hakeem Jeffries, as the ‘figurehead of the Blue Wave’,” but I think Mandani would be the more likely choice in that situation.
I still have “members of the Artemis crew that lands on the moon, including the first woman and African-American ever to set foot on the moon” penciled in for 2027, assuming the mission isn’t postponed until 2028 or later.
There’s no chance that happens. There is no path from where they are right now to a successful landing that takes as little as a year. Right now, the plan is still to use a Starship as the lander, and Starship has still yet to complete a fully-successful flight, and their last launch wasn’t even an attempt at a fully-successful flight. And if they switch to another lander, it’ll take time to design, develop, and test that, too.
The only way the Artemis crew makes “People of the Year” any time soon is as the heroic martyrs who died from trying to rush the project through before it’s ready with untested equipment.
Since the actual award standard is “the person who affected the world most profoundly for good or ill” the leader board right now are trump and putin, with Xi in runner-up position.
Netanyahu or whoever is running Iran now could pull an upset, but if they do, it’ll involve radioactivity. Lots and lots of radioactivity.
IMO it’s Pollyanna nonsense to expect anyone making a positive difference to be in the top 10. Evil is in the ascendant this season and is still gaining momentum like a freight train. Slowing that freight train down again will be the work of decades.
I’d like for the magazine to offer two awards each year: most influential for Good and most influential for Evil. And to clearly label which is which.
And with the switch to dual awardees put out a list of all prior single awardees and which category they won under: Good or Evil.
That would take courage, convictions, and integrity. And so will never occur on our timeline.
Actually, the standard is "a person, group, idea, or object that “for better or for worse … has done the most to influence the events of the year”, according to TIME.
Mamdani’s choice would have nothing to do with “positive influence” and everything to do with politics.
Maybe Trump gets it if the Republicans hold onto the Senate, but otherwise, I see Time giving it to some symbol of “the Blue Wave,” and the current standardbearer seems to be Mamdani. Maybe he shares it with, say, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders.
Also, while the “official” award standard is what you said, I am convinced there is an unofficial one as well - whoever can sell the most magazines. Or is there a better explanation as to how Taylor Swift got selected in 2024? A possible backlash if Trump is selected will definitely be taken into account.
While the official standard is “for better or for worse”, they haven’t actually followed that for decades. If they had, then bin Laden would have won in 2001, not Guiliani.