Vinnie’s even more off track on the Tony Gwynn thing: This from the San Diego Tribune:
Brought to Seattle as the NL’s honorary 31st man for his 14th All-Star Game, Gwynn resisted the notion that he might become available for one last at-bat because of the late scratch of Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Curt Schilling as the NL starter. All-Star coach and Padres manager Bruce Bochy made an initial inquiry into the possibility, but Gwynn declined.
“I don’t want to go up there to swing the bat if I can’t run the way I want to run, and I can’t,” said Gwynn, little more than a week off his second stint on the disabled list with a hamstring problem. “I don’t want to put a ball into the gap and hobble into second. Hopefully, I’ll get the chance to swing the bat next week. But this was not the place.”
As far as the Ripken home run - it was a 93 mile an hour fastball. The day before, big strong home-run hitters could only hit a few out (Jason Giambi excepted) that were gopher-balls. Furthermore, Chan Ho Park was upset post-game that his first pitch ever in an all-star game was hit out - doesn’t sound like a conspiracy to me.
Irrational hatreds are certainly cathartic, and part of the fun of being a sports fan is the ability to indulge them freely without shame. Vinnie is certainly entitled to enjoy his hatred of Cal Ripken, and we should all allow him to do so lest we take excessive crap about our own irrational sports hatreds.
But there’s a real problem when one loses sight of the irrationality of a fun hatred, and starts to believe it’s factually based. This has gone on too long.
Uh, you know, Vinnie, stuff like this doesn’t help you much. Even a casual reader of the thread could tell that Opus was referring to the Reds promoting Sanders this season. You know, where he batted .235 in 75 AB, with only 6 runs, 4 RBI and 10 Ks?**
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My error, I misread his post and apologize for that. However, he gave only ONE example.
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Agreed. We’re up to 3 out of thousands. But I misunderstood Opus’ argument here anyway, so let’s move on.
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Don’t you think it’s possible Cal could have actually been BETTER if he took a few days off here and there? Cal’s refusal to sit out games got in the way of proper game and team management decisions. The record speaks for itself.
After the 1983 World Series season, Baltimore had 6 losing seasons and missed the playoffs 11 straight years (except 1994) up until 1997, when they made it to the playoffs thanks to the wild card. From 1984-1996, the Orioles best season was in 1994, when they played .563 ball, but that season was cut short by a strike. It got so bad in 1988 Baltimore went 54-107.
To make things worse, Baltimore missed the AL East pennant by 2 games in 1989, and 4 in 1996. Can we suppose that the O’s might have closed that gap had Cal rested a few games? I know maybe they wouldn’t have been as close without him, but you have to look at both sides.
While I wouldn’t go as far as to say the Orioles were a complete disaster during Cal’s streak, going 11 seasons without a playoffs cannot be considered a positive.
I’ve already addressed the “who would you replace Cal with” argument already. He was so established at that position because of the local media hype and the Streak, Baltimore wasn’t going to spend time and money looking for a new prospect at that position. In addition, Cal’s “streak” made him nearly impossible to trade either because no other team wanted to put up with the possibility of having to sit him, or the Orioles fans would have lynched the team.
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Tell me something. When you watched the crowd at the All-Star game last night, would you say that 90% of the faces were white . . .or black? The same goes for any major league park.
The answer is white, and I’d go as far as to say Japanese fans outnumber African-Americans in MLB attendance.
THIS is who filled out the All-Star ballots. Of course, they voted for black players as well, but they also voted in one washed up white guy.
In response to other posts:
You give me the San Diego Tribune. I give you Chris Berman BLASTING Baseball at the end of the broadcast, live, on national TV, for not letting Gwynn step to the plate. He was there, and I imagine he would have known if Gwynn declined or not, otherwise why would he call Baseball “stupid”?
If what Gwynn said was true, then he’s the only guy that was there that wasn’t turning the All-Star game into a farce!
If Chan Ho Park was so upset at himself, he shouldn’t have thrown a fastball right at Cal’s bat. If you don’t want someone hitting your pitch into the stands, don’t throw them that pitch. Very simple.
The race thing in regards to the All-Star game is a red herring. It has nothing to do with anything. More than half of the starters in that game were nonwhite (hell, 6 of 8 position players in the AL starting lineup were nonwhite). Is there currently a racial divide in MLB attendance. Yes, there is. It has nothing to do with the color of the players, though. It has to do, in large part, with the dominance of the NBA in marketing itself to minorities.
Anyhow, I’d like to know when “the streak” became a big issue during Cal’s career? Certainly not in those late-80s seasons when the Orioles were consistently playing under .500 ball. If he was playing poorly from, say, 1984-1989, which were the real lean years, was “the streak” enough of a thought in anybody’s mind that they wouldn’t have considered replacing him?
Just FTR, here is Cal’s BA (since that’s a stat Vinnie likes) from 1983-1995, the year he broke the streak. Also included are the Orioles’ W-L record, the league average, the team average, the league ERA, and the team ERA. Looks to me like compared to the rest of the team and the league, he was at least average and in some cases better-than-average:
It should also be noted that, in that 1996 season to which you refer, Ripken finished the season third on the team in hits (behind only Alomar and Palmeiro), fourth in homers (behind the freakish Anderson, Palmeiro and Bonilla) and sixth in average (behind Alomar, Anderson, Bonilla, Palmeiro and Surhoff). This from a guy in the majors for 13 years at that point.
In the division series against Cleveland, he led the team in average (.444!), batted in 2 runs on 8 hits (including 3 doubles) and scored 2 runs. Only Surhoff and Anderson were more productive at the plate.
In the ALCS against New York, he batted .250, behind only Murray, Zeile and Surhoff of the players who played in 4 or 5 games. He scored 1 run on 5 hits (including a double) and walked once. Unfortunately, he also struck out 4 times – as did Alomar (who batted .217), Anderson (.190), Bonilla (.050) and Palmeiro (.235). This was facing a pitching staff that included David Cone, Jimmy Key and Andy Pettite, BTW.
If anyone was holding the team up from picking up 4 games on the Yankees that season, I don’t think it was Cal Ripken.
This line of reasoning is criminal, to say the least. To inject just a morsel of logic:
I’d take a newspaper report that is most likely researched and cross-checked over an announcer’s brief comments RIGHT after the game any day. “He was there.” So were about 40,000 other people. Think they have a better scoop than a press reporter who has access to the team and an entire night to write his piece? I doubt Berman made it down to the field, got the facts straight from Gwynn, and then ran back up to the broadcasting booth “at the end of the broadcast, live, on national TV.” :rolleyes:
“If what Gwynn said was true,” :rolleyes:
You still haven’t addressed the facts that GWYNN WAS HURT!
“If you don’t want someone hitting your pitch into the stands, don’t throw them that pitch. Very simple.” And if you want to hit a hole-in-one during each game of golf you play, just aim for the pin.
I found Berman’s comments against baseball rather strong considering the situation. Unless I see a retraction by him, I’ll stand by my sources. I’ve searched the Net, and haven’t seen one yet.
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It was the friggin’ All-Star Game. It’s a joke, not a game. I mean, they had Tommy Lasorda out there doing dives for Chrissakes.
There is no reason that some cripple couldn’t have hobbled up to the plate and took a few swings. I guess it says something about the class that Tony Gwynn has that he refused to do it if indeed that is the case.
Speaking of “criminal”, let us compare Gwynn’s class in the face of highly veiled racism to Cal Ripken, Master Thief, who not only stole a record from Lou Gehrig but also a starting All-Star spot, and who really should have confessed:
“Look, I know the popular thing to do is for me to start the game, and I appreciate that the fans voted me in, and that the other players want me to start, but they are being gracious. I should take my pathetic .229 average and step aside and let a better, younger player who DESERVES it take my spot. I’ll be happy to accept a spot as an “honorary” All-Star.”
That would have made me think the guy had at least one inkling of class. To go out there as a starter with the crummy numbers he has put out, well personally I would have been embarrassed to take the starting slot.
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We’re talking baseball, not golf here, Chief. There are certain pitches that have a higher risk of being hit into a home run than others, and a fastball is one of them.
I’m sorry if I think that the coincindence of Cal hitting a home run in his Streak game and in his last All-Star Game seems a little fishy to me. I just have the same feeling in my gut as I did at some of those pitches Mark McGuire hit to get his 70 home runs.
Unless Cal just steps it up during the big moments, and cruises in the rest of the games, as it seems he has based on his lifetime stats.
Which is it going to be? The games fixed, or Cal is a slacker? I’d be interested in knowing which explantion you would like to choose and the reasons why.
pldennison, I have conceded more than once that Cal Ripken was an above average, even a VERY GOOD player, 2 MVP awards (spread out over 7 years) attest to this, but he is overrated.
The Baltimore Orioles went from 1984-1993 and 1995-1996 without a playoff game. Who was the one constant on the field during those years? Cal Ripken Jr… The question must be raised, like it or not: how would things been different if the team was not burdened with having to support The Streak???
There would have been NO OP on this issue from Yours Truly if at least ONE of the two was true:
Baltimore made the playoffs a few more times during those 11 seasons;
AND/OR
Ripken put up MUCH better offensive numbers.
Since neither is true, the question MUST be raised, and there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that the answer is “Yes, Cal Ripken Jr. is a fraud.”
I would like to continue a totally irrelevant hijack concerning Ryan vs. Carlton, but I take solace in the fact that Sua, Spiritus, and zev started it.
I had the good fortune of seeing both these outstanding pitchers in person during their prime. Though I only saw Carlton once, I did see Nolan on multiple occasions. And I guess I have to be the lone voice in the wilderness supporting Ryan as the better pitcher.
My judgement is no doubt colored due to having been an Astro and Ranger fan most of my life. And I lived for ~10 years within 30 miles of his Alvin ranch.
These two men were both true first ballot Hall of Famers, and of similar talent, so choosing between the two of them is quite subjective, yet fun nevertheless. However, I would like to throw out a few stats for comparison:
Career ERA
Nolan - 3.19
Carlton - 3.22
Total Innings Pitched
Nolan - 5386
Carlton - 5217.3
HRs allowed
Nolan - 321
Carlton - 414
Hits allowed
Nolan - 3923
Carlton - 4672
(H + BB)/IP
Nolan - 1.247
Carlton - 1.247
lowest ERA in a season
Nolan - 1.69
Carlton - 1.97
And finally, two of the most impressive:
Strikeouts
Nolan - 5714
Carlton - 4136
No-hitters
Nolan - 7(!!!)
Carlton - 0
IMO, when Nolan was “on”, there has never been another pitcher as dominant. Consider that only a handful of pitchers have thrown multiple no-hitters, and the closest one to him (Koufax) has 4. Simply unbelievable.
I was at the game in 1986 the night before Mike Scott pitched his no-hitter to clinch the division for the Astros. They would have won the division that night if the Reds lost and the Astros won, and Nolan was on the mound. I watched him totally overpower the opposition that night, taking a no-hitter into the 7th, when with 2 outs, he gave up a weak single through the middle. Noticeably upset with himself, after the standing ovation he proceeded to strikeout the last batter of the inning, then strikeout the side in the 8th. He never took the mound in the 9th, and I’m sure the other team was glad.
At one time it was thought the Sun revolved around the Earth. You know, science that was accepted by astronomers as a pretty good explanation for the solar system for decades…
For starters, try Bill James, Rob Neyer, Billy Beane, Joe Morgan and Peter Gammons. And it hurts the credibility of your arguments that with many of the more cutting-edge baseball analysts (most notably Baseball Prospectus and Rob Neyer) using the Web as the best means of publishing their findings, you arbitrarily decide that they don’t count. (For the record, Baseball Prospectus also issues an ink-on-paper annual. Does that count?)
I’ve been following this thread for a while now, and I’ll try to offer some wisdom about baseball statistics and player analysis.
Batting Average is an easy-to-compute stat that has been used for a long time because a) it’s easy for the casual fan to understand, and b) there’s some decent correlation between a team’s AVG. and how many runs they score.
The thing is, the correlation is only “decent,” and not “strong,” which is what you want out of a meaningful stat. Batting average has two serious flaws as a tool for analysis. First, it fails to distinguish between a single, a double and homer. (That is, it doesn’t take power into account). Second, it doesn’t take walks into account, which are a very important factor in a team’s scoring.
That’s why more and more baseball people, including an increasing number of mainstream analysts and reporters, are talking about On-Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage, and their sum, known as OPS. A team’s OPS correlates much more highly with how many runs they score than does batting average, which you’d expect from a stat that takes power and walks into account.
To put that today’s terms, you might think that Dmitri Young (BA .328) is having a better year at the plate than Ryan Klesko (BA …297). But when you look at OBP and SLG, you see that Klesko is actually having the better year. That’s because Klesko has drawn about three times as many walks and hit twice as many home-runs. And the OPS stat shows this: .847 OPS for Young, and .962 OPS for Klesko.
As for runs and RBI, both of these are less useful for evaluating individual players because they aren’t individual achievements. Bret Boone might seem the equal of Manny Ramirez if you look at their identical RBI totals, but if you look carefully you see than Boone has had many more AB with runners in scoring position. Boone hits after Ichiro (.379 OBP), Edgar Martinez (.433 OBP) and John Olerud (.429 OBP). Ramirez hits after Jose Offerman (.347) Scott Hatteberg (.303) and Trot Nixon (.376). Ramirez is clearly having a better year at the plate, but you wouldn’t know it from just looking at RBI.
Runs scored suffers from the same symptom. You can get on base all you want, but if the guys behind you can’t hit, you won’t score runs. Jason Giambi gets on base 46% of the time and has scored 47 runs. Bret Boone gets on base 36% if the time and has scored 65 runs. That’s not because Giambi is somehow “worse” at scoring runs. It’s because the Mariners’ lineup is better than the A’s lineup.
For decades these stats – especially RBI and Batting Average – were considered definitive because they were obvious and easy to understand. But in recent times the mathematics of baseball analysis (Sabermetrics) has progressed beyond them, discovering better and more accurate ways of measuring an individual player’s contributions. And, as with all areas where human knowledge progresses, there are still people – baseball professionals among them – who cling to outdated notions. It’s just human nature.
Oh, and to address one more point: to downgrade any player’s skill based on World Series rings is (imho)absurd. The WS is won by teams, not individuals. Was Ernie Banks less of a player because he played on lousy Cubs teams? Is Scott Brosius a better player than was Mike Schmidt? World Series rings as a measuring stick suffer from the same lack of focus as runs and RBI, but to a much greater degree, since any individual player-season, no matter how great, has little effect by itself in getting a team to the World Series. Pedro Martinez had arguably the greatest season by a starting pitcher ever in 2000, but the Red Sox didn’t even make the playoffs. And where were the Cardinals when McGwire hit 70?
Cal Ripken and Ernie Banks were great players surrounded by mediocrity. History should judge them on their own merits, not those of their teammates.
I’ll take some of that. Choose a poster that we can both agree on as honest. We will both send him checks for $500. At the end of the season, Cal’s last game will decide who gets the cash.
I am inclined to think so as well, though not by much. My impression is that Nolan Ryan pitched most of his career with teams that featured top notch pitching (e.g. Tanana and Scott) but no hitting. This caused his WL record to be a lot worse than it otherwise would have been. By contrast, Carlton had the benefit of Schmit and Luzinski et al. In Ryan’s final years with Texas he had some offense behind him, and his WL record improved a lot.
OTOH, I would quibble with your statistics a bit by noting that Carlton stayed around for several awful years at the end, which may have dragged down his lifetime statistics.
“For more than a decade, Ripken has been an advocate for adult literacy. Together with his wife, Kelly, he has contributed or helped raise $1.2 million for the Baltimore Reads Ripken Learning Center, which has served more than 3,300 adults since 1990.”
“He contributed $75,000 for the construction of a baseball field at Aberdeen High School, his alma mater, and $25,000 to establish a Ripken Reading Center at the city library.”
“He’s giving back to his hometown. He’s honoring the memory of his father, Cal Ripken Sr., contributing $11 million of the $25 million required to build a state-of-the-art youth baseball academy and minor league park in Aberdeen, Md.”
I get the feeling that if Ripken had struck out in the AS game, ol’ Vinnie would have said “I told ya he’s a bum! He can’t get a hit even in a meaningless exhibition game!”
Carlton is an interesting case in that he had some very bad years in the midst of what was a magnificent career, whereas Ryan never really had any terrible seasons. Carlton’s peak certainly matcher Ryan’s, though. I would point out that Carlton won four Cy Young Awards; Ryan never won the award, and only had one season, really, when he maybe should have won it. Carlton was a regular starter for two World Champions and a bit player on a third; Ryan was a relief pitcher on one. Not sure if that means much, but it’s something.
Carlton also played in substantially better hitter’s parks; he pitched the bulk of his career in Veterans’ Stadium, an OK hitter’s park. Ryan played a lot of his career in the Big A, which was a good pitcher’s park, and the Astrodome, which was a PHENOMENAL pitcher’s park. So for his career, Carlton’s ERA was actually better than Ryan’s, taking context into account; Ryan was 11% better than average for his career, but Carlton was 15% better than average.
I would argue that Carlton was, in fact, a greater pitcher than Ryan. His ERAs are better when you examine them properly, his career W/L is better, he won awards Ryan did not win, and flashy stuff like no-hitters doesn’t overwhelm that. I consider it significant that there were at least three or four years when Carlton was clearly the best pitcher in his league, and Ryan might not be able to make the same claim (his 1981 season was amazing, though.)
He did that in 1987; he led the NL in ERA (2.76) but went 8-16. The only other year he led the league in ERA was 1981, when he went 11-5. (Strike year.)
Ryan didn’t actually have that many hard luck years, aside from 1981, and he actually had some good luck years, too, though nothing on the bizarre scale of 1987.
RickJay, let me start by saying that choosing between Carlton and Ryan is a lot like choosing between Catherine Zeta-Jones and Jennifer Aniston – no matter which one you end up with, I’ll bet you have a smile when you’re finished.
Most serious baseball analysts I’ve seen tend to agree with you (and Sua, Spiritus, and zev). But that only strengthens my resolve.
The issues you’ve mentioned (adjusted ERA, W/L record, Cy Young Awards) don’t sway me for several reasons. The W/L record is a ridiculous statistic, IMO. No other team sport singles out one player and sticks him with a stat like this. To me, W/L record is more of an indication of how good the team is behind the pitcher, not of how well the pitcher performed. CYAs tend to follow the W/L record, with some input from ERA, but the good pitchers on great teams generally win that award. You rarely see great pitchers from bad teams win it.
Adjusted ERA is also troublesome for me. If you are going to “fudge” the ERAs to account for the ballparks they pitched in, why stop there? Let’s adjust it for strength of opposition, weather conditions, defensive ability of the pitcher’s team, umpiring, amount of travel, etc. I realize that adjusting ERAs is a common thing to do, but the pitchers adjust themselves depending on where they’re pitching that night, so any “fudging” we do after the fact is just guessing.
I agree with you that Carlton’s top 3-4 seasons are probably better than Ryan’s best 3 or 4 years, but I’m really looking at their entire careers. Besides, Ryan’s top 7 games sure beats Carlton’s top 7.
