A competent a well-run organization doesn’t operate based on the sunk cost fallacy. Certainly, if they don’t believe in Purdy and they do believe in Lance, this is all academic. They keep Lance and Purdy’s elbow gives them the opportunity to avoid the controversy of benching an undefeated Purdy. Easy.
But Lance is not a rookie. He was a gamble when he was drafted. He didn’t win the starting job in his rookie year. He was given the starting job and didn’t play especially well before the injury. At this point the team has to have a pretty good idea if Lance can be the guy or not…and they just saw what Purdy can do with that roster, and what Lance never could do. Only the guys in the room really know what they think, but there’s plenty of reasons to think that they quietly believe that Lance was a big mistake. If that’s the case the Niners have to trade him before he puts a bunch of tape out there that destroys his value.
Purdy is out until 2024. He hasn’t won any job. He was good he wasn’t spectacular. He didn’t make a lot of mistakes and allowed a very good defense to do their job. He was not good enough that they already have him penciled in as the starter in 2024. He has the potential to be a solid NFL QB. Lance has the potential to be a great NFL QB.
Reports today are that he may undergo Tommy John surgery, but that he and the Niners are still investigating options (including a repair, rather than the ligament replacement of a Tommy John surgery), and nothing definitive is being said yet. The course of action would determine how much, if any, of next season he’d miss.
Those cites are optimistic that he will be back for training camp in six months. A surgeon is quoted as saying the fact that he was able to come back in the game and throw a couple wobbly passes at all is a good indicator that a simple repair (six months recovery) could be sufficient. As opposed to the full Tommy John replacement surgery, where recovery is 9 to 12 months. With that he’d be gone until 2024, probably. Still a possibility once they go in and see, but early indications are it won’t be necessary.
I really hope he does come back for training camp and is essentially fine. That would be a fun QB competition to watch.
The first reports I saw after the diagnosis were pretty certain he would be out a year. More recent reports are more hopeful but they won’t know for sure until they open him up. If he played baseball there wouldn’t be a question.
What a story, this Brock Purdy. I watched every one of his downs ever since he came in for Jimmy G in week 13 against Miami. What stood out to me was his intelligence and poise in the pocket, his ability to move when the pocket was collapsing instead of taking a sack, and his smarts to throw it away if the play wasn’t there instead of trying to force the ball into a tight squeeze and risk a pick. The man was seasoned beyond his years when compared with typical rookies NFL QBs.
It will be fun to see him compete against Trey Lance when he returns during the 2023 season.
You’re on an island here. While I think the 6 month timeline for Tommy John is overly optimistic, no one right now is saying he’s already done for 2024. And I haven’t read anyone who was arguing that Purdy wasn’t the starter in 2023 before the injury. He DEFINITELY won the starting job over the last 3 months.
Coming out of college, Joe Montana and Tom Brady were no great athletes. People would say they had the potential to be solid NFL QBs. Nobody would say they had the potential to be great ones.
And yet here we are. Those two are among the two GOATs. Take your pick, Montana over Brady? Or Brady over Montana? The point is, entering the draft they were not athletic studs like a John Elway was.
Based on what I’ve seen of Brock Purdy, he definitely has the potential to be among the greats.
That’s not right. If he needs Tommy John he will be out at least 9 months but most likely 12. No one is saying 6 months for Tommy John. There is another option that is available which is not a full UCL transplant. They are hopeful he won’t need Tommy John. Baseball pitchers with UCL tears all require Tommy John because of the torque involved in throwing a baseball. The problem is they won’t know if they can do the reconstruction or the transplant until he’s on the table and opened up.
It’s not completely uncharted territory but it’s not a well travelled path. Nick Mullens had the surgery and came back but he came back to mostly ride the bench. Will he be 100% in 6 months? Who knows. Lance is almost cleared for full duty and he will have the full off season to prepare.
As with anything money can’t be discounted. As a high 1st round draft pick he has a big contract. Purdy makes less than a million a year. Getting rid of Lance is not easy. He still has a lot of unrealized potential but it is unrealized. It may be difficult to find a team willing to take a cap hit like that. Purdy is cheap and easy to trade. I suspect they are hoping for both to be in camp and not get rid of either. They certainly needed more than one good QB this year.
Agreed, I think that if they can use Lance until Purdy can play, if Purdy can recover and improves on a promising start, they can be in pretty good shape. Lance is a decent backup once Purdy is a starter. They’re in a better QB situation than many (most?) teams and the rest of their team is really good if they can keep everyone healthy.
I can’t help but think they are going to push for Lance. They gave up a #3 pick and a ton of money so far for him and he’s played in fewer games than Purdy. Before Lance is dismissed it can’t be forgotten that he’s only played in 7 full games over 2 years.
I don’t follow. Googling indicates that the 49ers spent three first round picks plus a third rounder to acquire Lance. This includes their first round pick in April’s upcoming draft, which they no longer have.
It’s debatable whether all that is worth more than the #3 overall pick.
Let’s say you have the #3 overall pick. Another team offers you a bevy of picks to trade up for that spot, but there’s a QB you really want and you hold onto that pick to draft him.
Would you say you gave up a ton of picks to draft that QB, or just suffice to say they were the #3 overall pick? Because anyone who follows the NFL knows how coveted those spots are and that value is implied. Any early pick is a potential set of picks you might have traded for.
In one of my economics classes in college we learned about “opportunity cost”, which is what you give up to get something. Most decisions you make, financial or not, involve an element of opportunity cost. It’s something that’s always in play and not unique to a particular situation.