Tour de France 2011 (spoilers)

[Princhester]

@footballisplayedwithyourfeet

Usually he can just follow and then make the difference in the time trial, but not this time.

Bwuh? In which alternate universe?

Contador has gone into the final ITT in the yellow jersey for the last three years in which he has raced. He went in with 1’ 50" in 2007, with 2’ 26" in 2009 and admittedly only 8" in 2010 but that was largely because he punctured and lost a minute or so on stage 3. He’d made up over a minute on the climbs before he got to the ITT.

AC isn’t just slightly better than anyone else in the mountains, he is head and shoulders better. He seems to be able to make up whatever gap he needs to and unless Andy Schtick or Cuddles (or someone else) have found [del]a new drug or transfusion method[/del]
form they have never shown before and/or El Pistolero has [del]forgotten where he put his needles and blood bags [/del] suffered a bad lapse in form, he will win the tour in a walk. The gap the others have on him is nothing compared to what he can make up in a mountain stage, and this tour has more climbs than usual, if anything.

@Pantani

I would suspect Contador was planning on creating a gap, gaining a few seconds and a morale boosting win today.

He’s done this before:when he’s down a bit and feels the need for a morale boost he will take a minor victory just to kick everyone in the 'nads and remind them that while he lets everyone think they have a chance, they don’t really. Of course he left his run about 0.1 seconds too late in stage four, but that was a mere timing error. AC was making Cuddles look like he was standing still as he passed him.

[footballisplayedwithyourfeet]

@Princhester

Bwuh? In which alternate universe?

Contador has gone into the final ITT in the yellow jersey for the last three years in which he has raced. He went in with 1’ 50" in 2007, with 2’ 26" in 2009 and admittedly only 8" in 2010 but that was largely because he punctured and lost a minute or so on stage 3. He’d made up over a minute on the climbs before he got to the ITT.

AC isn’t just slightly better than anyone else in the mountains, he is head and shoulders better. He seems to be able to make up whatever gap he needs to and unless Andy Schtick or Cuddles (or someone else) have found [del]a new drug or transfusion method[/del]
form they have never shown before and/or El Pistolero has [del]forgotten where he put his needles and blood bags [/del] suffered a bad lapse in form, he will win the tour in a walk. The gap the others have on him is nothing compared to what he can make up in a mountain stage, and this tour has more climbs than usual, if anything.

He’s done this before:when he’s down a bit and feels the need for a morale boost he will take a minor victory just to kick everyone in the 'nads and remind them that while he lets everyone think they have a chance, they don’t really. Of course he left his run about 0.1 seconds too late in stage four, but that was a mere timing error. AC was making Cuddles look like he was standing still as he passed him.

Well he certainly wasn’t that much better in the mountains last year, bar the one time he left a Andy stranded with a mechanical failure. But that wasn’t really my point anyway. I was just saying that his modus operandi in the last few years (especially when he is mainly confronted with the likes of the Schlecks) seems to have been to wait for the others to act and just follow, or maybe take 40 seconds in the last two K. This years Giro was exactly that, he was miles better than anyone else and would spent most of the mountain rides waiting to see if anyone would try something and then gain another 30/40 secs in the last few K. If he wouldn’t feel up to it, he could always rely on his stellar ITT skills (compared to the other mountain goats). I’m also not blaming him, he is just making sure that he’s winning grand tours…my comment just pointed to the fact that he probably has to do more - ie attack earlier in the mountain stages and show us how good he really is - this year beacuase he lost time. Especially now it seems Evans is a real contender and he isn’t bad at ITT’s. I’m just excited that we’re probably going to get a lot tougher and action packed mountain stages, now the best climber actually needs to make up a chunk of time instead of being in a position where he can settle for a gain of a few seconds.

I find your other points dismissing Evans and Schleck a bit moronic, given how Evans has been looking great so far; neither of them having crashed in the last few days; Contador is doing his first Giro/Tour combination ever*; Saxobank is the weakest team of the Contenders by a distance; Schleck had no problem following last year…not to mention the dope comment (are you really going to throw that around at this time?)

Like I said contador is still favourite, but the Tour is long and there are quite a few unknowns.

[Princhester]

In other words AC follows basic stage racing strategy as followed by basically every GC contender in the modern era. He mostly conserves his effort and he just attacks enough to get the gap he needs. I’m not sure what your point is. He was well behind last year too, due to a puncture. This year isn’t much different. AC’s ITT skills aren’t that great. They are way better than AS, but he has lost time to Evans and other contenders in the past.

Moronic as my comments about Evans and AS undoubtedly are, they are based on years of following them very closely. AS talks big but in the end name some stages where AS has beaten AC on a climb? I think there was one last year where he took 10 seconds. Woohoo. Meanwhile most times they have gone mano a mano, AC has taken minutes.

As to Evans, I’m a countryman and a fan and follow his season like a hawk and believe me I want nothing better than to see him win, but I have learned to face facts. I can’t think of a single HC climb in recent years (ever, really) in a grand tour where he has cracked his main rivals. At best when he is in great form he can keep up. Usually he struggles to do that and finishes a bit behind. He is very, very, very good but he is consistently not the best. You say he is in great form. Well, yes he is and I have enjoyed the tour so far. If I was in true fanboy mode I might even say that he looked stronger than Gilbert on stage one but got blocked in slightly. Certainly he had no difficulty blowing Gilbert away on stage four. But these are just hard uphill finishing kicks and we know he is exceptional at those. If you think Cuddles can beat AC all out on HC climbs in this tour I have two words to say: Dauphine, Wiggins. If he can’t even look convincing against Wiggins on an HC climb in the Dauphine, fergeddaboutit.

[Boo_Boo_Foo]

Contador won the final Individual Time Trial in the 2009 Tour de France. And he did while wearing yellow. Both Cancellara and Armstrong were in that event, the latter riding for a podium position, the former finishing 2nd to Contador - on a flat course no less.

Contador also won this year’s final ITT in the Giro. He placed 4th in the ITT in the 2008 Olympic Games, and Cadel Evans placed 5th in that event behind Contador. Contador also won the 2nd ITT in the 2008 Vuelta.

Contador’s first professional win in 2003 was in an ITT.

Great? Mediocre? Average? These are terms used to express an opinon, but in truth they’re not facts. The ITT results I quoted above are facts, and it’s a list of results that many pro tour riders would like to have.

[Boo_Boo_Foo]

@footballisplayedwithyourfeet

Well he certainly wasn’t that much better in the mountains last year, bar the one time he left a Andy stranded with a mechanical failure.

When Schleck dropped his chain, Contador was also surrounded by Dennis Menchov and another rider who were then 3rd and 4th respectively on GC. They both attacked when it appeared Contador was intending to wait for Schleck. Contador had no choice but to go with them, given that it was the beginning of a maximum speed descent into a township finish. There are many MANY people who use the word ‘stranded’ in a negative context regarding that incident - I’m not one of them. Nobody, but nobody mentions Menchov’s attack when Schleck dropped his chain - because it doesn’t sit well with the popular myth that it was Contador who attacked.

Contador was only some 30 seconds or so in the lead at that time, if my memory serves me correctly - I can look up the specifics if you require. Given that it is possible to lose minutes upon minutes in a mountain stage, given that Contador won the 2010 Tour de France - at least on time at any rate - Contador did what he needed to do to win, and he didn’t need to be “that much better”. Strategically, he rode a perfect race.

When it comes to being “that much better in the mountains” - Contador saved that for this year’s Giro on the Mount Etna stage. If you’re a lover of road cycling, his performance on that stage was equal to Lucien van Impe’s legendary 1976 performance up l’Alpe d’Huez..

[Boo_Boo_Foo]

@footballisplayedwithyourfeet

I find your other points dismissing Evans and Schleck a bit moronic, given how Evans has been looking great so far;

Cadel Evans holds the record for losing the Yellow Jersey by the greatest margin in just one day in the history of the Tour de France. He set that record last year.

@footballisplayedwithyourfeet

Like I said contador is still favourite, but the Tour is long and there are quite a few unknowns.

I agree with you on this comment, however I prefer to avoid opinions and favourites etc. You don’t win Grand Tours, you lose them. Everybody starts on the same time, you know that already of course. As you say, there’ll be more unexpected events and injuries etc.

Given that this year’s l’Alpe d’Huez stage is just 2 days before the finish - given that it also has an HC climb (up the Galibier I believe) halfway on a very VERY short 119km stage, we can surmise that the race will be settled on that day. Cadel Evans lost 1’45" on l’Alpe d’Huez to Carlos Sastre the year he came 2nd to Sastre.

[Boo_Boo_Foo]

@mittu

Cavendish has looked fine so far, in my opinion. He has struggled due to his team trying to lead him out from too far back and getting blocked out of the mid-stage sprint today but my money will always be on him in a fair fight, hopefully the other teams won’t rely on HTC so heavily to chase down breakaways in future so he will get better preparation.

I’ve been searching and searching and I still can’t find an interview, or a twitter which explains why Matt Goss inexplicably pulled off Tony Martin’s wheel with 1300m to go on Stage 5. His action pushed Cavendish deep down into the pocket. You don’t do that in the final stages of a spint train. If it was an action designed to let Tony Martin get a winning jump on the field, that didn’t work either. If it was simply because he couldn’t hold the wheel, that doesn’t bode well for team harmony I should think.

[Busy_Scissors]

@Princhester

As to Evans, I’m a countryman and a fan and follow his season like a hawk and believe me I want nothing better than to see him win, but I have learned to face facts. I can’t think of a single HC climb in recent years (ever, really) in a grand tour where he has cracked his main rivals. At best when he is in great form he can keep up. Usually he struggles to do that and finishes a bit behind. He is very, very, very good but he is consistently not the best. You say he is in great form. Well, yes he is and I have enjoyed the tour so far. If I was in true fanboy mode I might even say that he looked stronger than Gilbert on stage one but got blocked in slightly. Certainly he had no difficulty blowing Gilbert away on stage four. But these are just hard uphill finishing kicks and we know he is exceptional at those. If you think Cuddles can beat AC all out on HC climbs in this tour I have two words to say: Dauphine, Wiggins. If he can’t even look convincing against Wiggins on an HC climb in the Dauphine, fergeddaboutit.

I read that Cadel’s recent stage win was actually his first outright in the Tour - he’d won one before by default when Rasmussen got binned, but never took the podium in his own right. Surprised to hear this (if true - not checked).

[Pantani]

I think the difference this year is that Contador can’t be super conservative, like he was last year, and then rely on a fast ITT for the win. He’s going to have to get some stage victories in the mountains.

A win this year will put Contador up there with the Tour all time greats and he knows it.

Oh, and any comments about how much time Cadel lost in Yellow last year need to take into account a broken elbow he rode with. Having had a similar injury I bow to the guts it took to even finish the stage.

[Princhester]

@Boo_Boo_Foo

Great? Mediocre? Average? These are terms used to express an opinon, but in truth they’re not facts. The ITT results I quoted above are facts, and it’s a list of results that many pro tour riders would like to have.

Thanks I stand corrected. I had the idea that Cadel had beaten him a couple of times but I can’t now think why.

@Busy_Scissors

I read that Cadel’s recent stage win was actually his first outright in the Tour - he’d won one before by default when Rasmussen got binned, but never took the podium in his own right. Surprised to hear this (if true - not checked).

Yes it’s true but it was Vinokourov not Rasmussen.

[Boo_Boo_Foo]

@Princhester

Yes it’s true but it was Vinokourov not Rasmussen.

And if memory serves me correctly, the transgression was blood doping re-infusion, and it was the offence which saw Vino get booted for 2 whole years - whereupon, at the end of his sabbatical, he convinced the Kazakh backers of the Astana Team to kick out a certain American named Armstrong, along with Johan Bruneyl. That’s why the money dried up on the Astana Team during the 2009 Tour… that was Vino pulling the strings in the background. Apparently, most of the budget for the 2009 Tour de France campaign was put up by Armstrong himself - he essentially bought a paid ride on the Astana Team for 2009 but you’ll recall there were no sponsor decals on their jerseys anywhere. Which is also part of the reason between the bad blood between Contador and Armstrong that year - that is, LA thought he deserved a little bit more respect for paying everyone’s wages, Contador felt he deserved a little bit more respect for being the number one ‘GUN’ in the sport at that time.

[Boo_Boo_Foo]

Everybody remembers the 1989 Tour, and how Fignon lost his 50 second advantage on the final day by 8 seconds to Lemond in that awesome ITT.

A bravura performance by all the players, all round. What everybody forgets is that the Yellow Jersey swapped owners between Lemond and Fignon on 8 separate occasions during that Tour. It got so dramatic, that the entire peleton was wrapped up in the emotion of it all in the final 5 days. Both Fignon and Lemond were going off on lone solo attacks of 80km or more, riding for time to get back in the lead… AND they were staying away. During that last week, nobody dared interfere, nobody dared go up the road… it was the Fignon vs Lemond show… and they were given permission, by the entire peleton… “This is your show boys. We are not going to interfere. You wanna attack? She’s all yours!”

It’s a source of sadness for me that this part of the 1989 Tour is largely forgotten now. People mention Lemond’s alltime fastest ITT which stood for 16 years (and it remains the all time 2nd fastest avg speed to this day), and people also mention the 8 second final time gap, but it’s the final week that really made that 1989 Tour legendary. The chief protagonists were going off on solo attacks, literally swapping Yellow Jersey’s from day to day.

My point being that numbers of wins alone doesn’t make for legendary status in, and of itself, in my view. Your mileage might vary of course, but for mine, there’s something to be said for winning with panache, and that means being both dominant towards your competition AND at various times, being dominated BY your competition too. And that applies to all different sports too. Novak the Joker is finally getting his time in the sun after years of losing to Roger and Rafa.

What I’m about to say is an opinion, which I do try to avoid, but the enduring legacy of Armstrong’s winning TdF years is that he was never dominated at any stage by anybody else… Ulrich on his day was an equal, but never dominated Armstrong. It’s the bittersweet taste of losing AND winning which gives us, the viewer, the most memorable races of all, in my view.

Thus far in his career, Contador has yet to be dominated by another Grand Tour rider, whilst ALSO being at the top of his game. If you examine the starting list in this year’s Tour, you’ll probably (most likely) find that there isn’t a candidate who can do it this year, either. There’s a handful who might be his equal on certain days, but there’s nobody who is going to do to Contador what Contador will most likely do to his rivals. Indeed, Contador’s biggest rival in this year’s Tour seems to be Lady Luck and nobody else.

[footballisplayedwithyourfeet]

@Princhester

In other words AC follows basic stage racing strategy as followed by basically every GC contender in the modern era. He mostly conserves his effort and he just attacks enough to get the gap he needs. I’m not sure what your point is. He was well behind last year too, due to a puncture. This year isn’t much different. AC’s ITT skills aren’t that great. They are way better than AS, but he has lost time to Evans and other contenders in the past.

Moronic as my comments about Evans and AS undoubtedly are, they are based on years of following them very closely. AS talks big but in the end name some stages where AS has beaten AC on a climb? I think there was one last year where he took 10 seconds. Woohoo. Meanwhile most times they have gone mano a mano, AC has taken minutes.

As to Evans, I’m a countryman and a fan and follow his season like a hawk and believe me I want nothing better than to see him win, but I have learned to face facts. I can’t think of a single HC climb in recent years (ever, really) in a grand tour where he has cracked his main rivals. At best when he is in great form he can keep up. Usually he struggles to do that and finishes a bit behind. He is very, very, very good but he is consistently not the best. You say he is in great form. Well, yes he is and I have enjoyed the tour so far. If I was in true fanboy mode I might even say that he looked stronger than Gilbert on stage one but got blocked in slightly. Certainly he had no difficulty blowing Gilbert away on stage four. But these are just hard uphill finishing kicks and we know he is exceptional at those. If you think Cuddles can beat AC all out on HC climbs in this tour I have two words to say: Dauphine, Wiggins. If he can’t even look convincing against Wiggins on an HC climb in the Dauphine, fergeddaboutit.

The only point I’m trying to make is that this tour is being set up as a great spectacle exactly because (I think) Contador will have to attack earlier than he normally does. This is also become more or less appearant when he attackes in the stage which he just lost to Evans. I don’t think he would have bothered trying to win a few seconds if he’d be one the same time as everyone else.

I actually like Contador a lot and am rooting for him to win, I can see how my words may be taken differently, but that was not my intention.

i’m really interested to see what happens in the remainder of the tour, I don’t think Contador will want to wait till the ITT (last year’s wasn’t as convincing as it used to be) and I’m not sure the Alpe d’Huez will be the big finale. We expected the same last year at the Mont Ventoux, and it ended up with all the favourites staying together (probably because the time differences where to big). I personally think that Contador could get 1.40 back in a combination of the Alpe and the ITT, but I doubt he will want to test that theory (given how often he failed to leave AS behind last year).

As to Evans, he has shown on multiple occasions to be able to ride a top 5 (or top 3 even) tour and is in great shape, and looked really strong in the Dauphine. He came second to Wiggins (who might do well also, but I am sceptical about him in the high mountains…even after 2009) and has impressed a lot more than AS did in the Tour de Suisse, I actually think Frank is in better shape at the moment.

I’m also interested in the role the Giro is going to play. In the Dauphine we could see that people coming from the Giro were really on the top of their game (Rodriguez winning a couple of times) while the Tour guys were building towards their peak form. Since most serious mountain stages are still a week away, it isn’t entirely inconceivable - according to the specialists here in Belgium and the Netherlands - that many favourites will grow into their best form during this week. How Contador is going to cope no one knows, he’s never done this combination before and it is difficult to estimate if he’s going to keep his brilliant Giro form for the next couple of weeks.

@Boo_Boo_Foo

When Schleck dropped his chain, Contador was also surrounded by Dennis Menchov and another rider who were then 3rd and 4th respectively on GC. They both attacked when it appeared Contador was intending to wait for Schleck. Contador had no choice but to go with them, given that it was the beginning of a maximum speed descent into a township finish. There are many MANY people who use the word ‘stranded’ in a negative context regarding that incident - I’m not one of them. Nobody, but nobody mentions Menchov’s attack when Schleck dropped his chain - because it doesn’t sit well with the popular myth that it was Contador who attacked.

Contador was only some 30 seconds or so in the lead at that time, if my memory serves me correctly - I can look up the specifics if you require. Given that it is possible to lose minutes upon minutes in a mountain stage, given that Contador won the 2010 Tour de France - at least on time at any rate - Contador did what he needed to do to win, and he didn’t need to be “that much better”. Strategically, he rode a perfect race.

When it comes to being “that much better in the mountains” - Contador saved that for this year’s Giro on the Mount Etna stage. If you’re a lover of road cycling, his performance on that stage was equal to Lucien van Impe’s legendary 1976 performance up l’Alpe d’Huez..

Agree with pretty much everything you say. Just wanted to add that the Schlecks and Leopard (eventough they were Saxobank last year) lost any credibility about their whining when they did the same thing to get the second place in the tour de Suisse when Mollema punctured.

@Pantani

I think the difference this year is that Contador can’t be super conservative, like he was last year, and then rely on a fast ITT for the win. He’s going to have to get some stage victories in the mountains.

A win this year will put Contador up there with the Tour all time greats and he knows it.

Oh, and any comments about how much time Cadel lost in Yellow last year need to take into account a broken elbow he rode with. Having had a similar injury I bow to the guts it took to even finish the stage.

This is what i was trying to say, Contador will be less conservative. he’s actually shown this already by going for stage wins in the first week of the tour (he tried to jump again in the last few K yesterday).

[footballisplayedwithyourfeet]

Wiggins abandon…that is such a shame, after winning the Dauphine he really looked set to do well again. Looks like he broke his collarbone…Horner was also down and it looks like he won’t get back to the main bunch. So the Shack has pretty much lost 3 of its 4 potential top 10 finishers, all eyes on Kloden now (allthough Leipheimer only lost a minute yesterday).

[Boo_Boo_Foo]

@footballisplayedwithyourfeet

Wiggins abandon…that is such a shame, after winning the Dauphine he really looked set to do well again. Looks like he broke his collarbone…Horner was also down and it looks like he won’t get back to the main bunch. So the Shack has pretty much lost 3 of its 4 potential top 10 finishers, all eyes on Kloden now (allthough Leipheimer only lost a minute yesterday).

With regards to Wiggins, if Robert Millar didn’t rate him, that’s good enough for me. That’s a guy who knows a thing or 10 about climbing in the Pyrenees. Wiggins is a track pursuit rider of the highest possible calibre who made a stellar transition across to pro tour racing. Unlike Indurain and Ulrich however, he lacked the sheer strength to maintain the highest speeds in the mountains while in the saddle - which is his primary climbing technique. And it’s his primary climbing technique because he lacks the upper body strength to dance out of the saddle for long periods on the pedals like an Armstrong or Contador. To make up for this, this year he concentrated on losing weight to an almost concentration camp degree, and quite frankly? He looked as fragile as balsa wood to be honest.

As did Rasmussen - the acne ridden anorexic who, I note with some disbelief, today launched a law suit for 5.6 million Euros in losses for being dumped by Rabobank in 2007. That’s like a burglar charging someone with assault after getting bashed senseless for breaking into that person’s home.

I would note finally that Leipheimer lost 3:06 by the end of the stage.

[footballisplayedwithyourfeet]

@Boo_Boo_Foo

With regards to Wiggins, if Robert Millar didn’t rate him, that’s good enough for me. That’s a guy who knows a thing or 10 about climbing in the Pyrenees. Wiggins is a track pursuit rider of the highest possible calibre who made a stellar transition across to pro tour racing. Unlike Indurain and Ulrich however, he lacked the sheer strength to maintain the highest speeds in the mountains while in the saddle - which is his primary climbing technique. And it’s his primary climbing technique because he lacks the upper body strength to dance out of the saddle for long periods on the pedals like an Armstrong or Contador. To make up for this, this year he concentrated on losing weight to an almost concentration camp degree, and quite frankly? He looked as fragile as balsa wood to be honest.

As did Rasmussen - the acne ridden anorexic who, I note with some disbelief, today launched a law suit for 5.6 million Euros in losses for being dumped by Rabobank in 2007. That’s like a burglar charging someone with assault after getting bashed senseless for breaking into that person’s home.

I would note finally that Leipheimer lost 3:06 by the end of the stage.

I don’t think there is anything in this post I agree with. Wiggins lost a lot of weight for the 2009 Tour and did extremely well. In 2010 he tried to do both the Giro and the Tour and came up way short… one of the reasons I’m have a close look at how Contador is coping. This year he seemed very strong in the Dauphine (which he won) and even though I have my doubts about him in the high mountains, he has shown in 2009 that he can do it. Helas we won’t be able to see whether this was a one time thing or not. Also, quoting Millar as a former teammate - or in other words as someone who was left behind at Garmin - doesn’t really convince me. Cavindish today said he had never seen Wiggins in better shape and was gutted to hear Wiggins was out. I have no reason to rate Millar’s words higher than Cavendish’s. he also looked really strong in the TTT.

You can say what you want about Rasmussen, but he never tested positive on anything and was leading in the tour de France when he was pulled out by his team for not being honest about his whereabouts. This is (btw) also the Reason Contador had a big lead going into the ITT in 2007; he was trailing Rasmussen (the battles between Rasmussen and Contador in that tour are some of the best bits of cycling I’ve ever seen) and the lead only came about when Rabobank withdrew Rasmussen. I can sort of see why he feels f*cked over, not testing positive for anything and still having your carreer ended and a (almost) certain tour victory taken away from you. While at the same time actual dopers get a chance to rehabilitate themselves (Ricco, Basso, Millar).

When I wrote my last message it wasn’t clear Leipheimer was also stuck in the second group. Maybe it will turn out to be a good thing for Radioshack thta they have to put all their efforts into Kloden, it might have been difficult to keep 4 leading men happy.

[Boo_Boo_Foo]

@footballisplayedwithyourfeet

I don’t think there is anything in this post I agree with.

Whatever… if you agree or don’t agree… whatever. All I ask of anyone who posts in a Tour de France internet discussion is that they contribute something valueable. That’s not an unreasonable position.

So, without any colour commentary…

Wiggins is out. Half the field finished 3:06 down.

Rasmussen is suing for damages. He’ll either win partially, totally, or lose.

Armstrong has retired. For the 2nd time.

Contador has hit the deck twice this Tour. 1:46 down.

Ivan Basso is only 1:06 down.

Vinokourov is only 0:33 down.

Schlecks et al, less than 0:10 down.

The road is forward.

[Boo_Boo_Foo]

Ahhh, the fortunes of pro cycling.

Before the Tour, Chris Horner from Team Radio Shack was quoted (after winning the Tour of California) that a podium finish in this year’s Tour “was doable”.

Yesterday on Stage 7, whilst only 15th wheel from the front of the peleton, he crashed somehow with a whole bunch of other guys - broke his nose and banged up his face pretty badly and finished 12 minutes down.

Statistically, the odds catch up with you sooner or later and you have a really bad crash - unless you have such a magnificent team that they can motorpace you at the front for 4,000km for an entire lap of the nation that is France. To win 7 Tours de France in a row is a remarkable achievement in that context.

But it’s worth noting that Armstrong had his “bad luck odds” come back to haunt him in his 2nd stint in 2009. He had a number of crashes which resulted in broken bones and lots of lost time - both in the lead up to, and during his 2 Tour finishes.

In my racing career I always marvelled how my crashes, almost always, were on super smooth wet roads. I’d slide for ages with barely a scratch. And then last year, without warning in the dark on a quiet training ride in winter, BAM! Big black rock, one broken collarbone and mega shoulder and knee damage. You get better eventually, but the odds are always there - waiting to even the karma account books.

[Pantani]

Boo Boo Foo quoted Robert Miller (legendary Scottish mountain rider) who I don’t belive was ever a team member with Wiggo, rather than David Miller who rode with Wiggo in Garmin.

Sad to see Wiggo go, we’ll never know now if he would have had the goods this year and got the reward for all his hard work this year.

Good Tour so far for my homeboy Julian Dean who has earnt his place on the Garmin squad this year

[Princhester]

@footballisplayedwithyourfeet

I can sort of see why he feels f*cked over, not testing positive for anything and still having your carreer ended and a (almost) certain tour victory taken away from you. While at the same time actual dopers get a chance to rehabilitate themselves (Ricco, Basso, Millar).

Millar didn’t test positive for anything either. But it is possible to draw circumstantial dots.