Tour de France 2011 (spoilers)

I replayed this about ten times on youtube last night. Clearly what happened was that he intended to pass on the verge, realised he’d misjudged and was likely not going to get past before he hit a tree, accelerated to try to make it, then realised he wasn’t going to make it at all, so swerved into the cyclists.

I would hate ever to make that kind of mistake and find myself in the position of that driver, but there is a part of me that says he should have manned up and just hit the tree. His mistake, he should pay the price. And in a modern car with airbags etc he almost certainly would have been OK.

Of course, he had passengers who probably didn’t deserve to be injured by having their shithead driver hit a tree either. Bad situation all round.

Yep, that is a very accurate synopsis, and it’s exactly the same synopsis I came to as soon as I did the YouTube thing too.

Mistake #1 - Europe TV car was in the wrong place in the first place. Should only be Race Referee plus immediate Team Support Cars plus TV cameramen. Occasionally the Mavic Neutral Car is up front if the Race Referee is still waiting on one of the Team Support cars to arrive in the breakaway group.

Mistake # 2 - Europe TV car went to pass, probably due to a lot of pressure from behind, at a time when the riders were only just to the right of the middle of the road, on a stretch which was only just 2 cars wide, on a stretch which has death trap trees literally on the grassy verge. Those Frenchies… they do love their death traps. And to think the famous Grand Prix track named Rheims had those sorts of tree lined roads? Far out… whatever… the driver should clearly have used his horn, doing the tradition triple beep (which indicates ‘I must pass’), and then WAITED until the break was firmly to the right hand side of the road.

Mistake # 3 - Europe TV car didn’t man up and hit the tree under maximum brakes because there were a shitload of TV bikes right behind him. It was a fast stretch - definitely 50+km I would wager - and it’s a safe bet that hitting the tree would have caused immense motorbike and car shunts behind the Europe TV car. As you say, just bad from all round - refer to Mistakes # 1 and #2.

Good wee article in the Guardian today from William Fotheringham, focussing on Cadel Evans and how he looks in good shape.

His directeur sportif apparently doesn’t fancy Contador for the podium (this was even prior to him getting banged up). A bold statement, I wonder if he really believes this or is just talking shit - he makes the case that Contador’s prep was less than ideal, little time to study the route etc. Can’t see how studying the route of the Tourmalet makes much difference when you’re half way up it breathing out your arse, but he probably has a point.

Contador’s says his knee is feeling good and unless that is really bothering him, he’s still my pick. He can get 1.40 back on Cadel. The Schlecks I don’t know. Andy will probably crack Cadel in the mountains but then he’ll take time on Andy in the ITT. If, say, Andy gets yellow and is a minute or so up on Cadel then I don’t know he will get that back: from what I’ve seen having the yellow gives a rider wings in the ITT.

Anyway: Go Cuddles!

I’ve been a fan of Voeckler since he had that great run in 2004, and I’m hoping against hope that he can hold onto yellow. He should be able to keep it through Bastille Day, which makes me happy.

I had a look at how Voeckler went in 09 and 10. Doesn’t look likely to say the least. Based on past performance he’ll lose time of the order of 5-10 min per mountain stage.

Want to indulge in some RO? Cyclingnews reports that neither the driver nor the French TV company have said anything at all to Hoogerland by way of an expresion of regret or similar about the stage 9 incident.

It’s the cheering, more than anything else. Riding through large crowds, especially on climbs, used to make me feel like I was obliged to ride beyond myself, as a form of thank you for the cheering. Especially the kids - kids cheering for you makes you feel like you’re Santa Claus or something like that! And that was just at the elite amateur level.

I still remember the stunner in Italy once who flashed her chest at me… man… I felt like doing a u-turn!

European cycling fans really REALLY love to see their champions suffer as a part of overcoming immense adversity. Without doubt, the loudest, most heartfelt cheering for the rest of this Tour will be for Johnny Hoogerland. The crowds will carry him to Paris, millions of people combined as one, single handedly, the crowds will do it.

If Contador can win from 1:46 down, the crowds will respect him as a true Champion. He won’t be loved, but he will be respected. The love from the French public will only come after they’ve seen Contador suffer, really suffer.

The exception to the ITT in Yellow theory was Fignon’s 2nd place to Lemond in 1989. He still came 2nd to the fastest ever ITT recorded, at that time.

Yes I suppose the yellow jersey effort in an ITT that really stands out for me is 2008 when Sastre turned himself inside out to fend Evans off. On paper going by previous results Sastre shouldn’t have been able to do it

I might be wrong but I think I’m correct in saying that Carlos Sastre never won another professional race after his 2008 Tour de France win. Certainly, his form went down the toilet by all accounts. I’m open to standing corrected on that one, if need be.

As for Thomas Voeckler? Given his diminutive height and low body weight, and given his obviously big heart, I’m surprised his results on mountainous race routes aren’t more prolific to be honest. From a physical point of view, he’s essentially the perfect climber - by every traditional parameter, that is. But his results indicate he’s more of a “rolling foot hills” kinda guy.

According to Cyclingnews.com they have apologised and Hoogerland has accepted the apology.

I hope there’s more than an apology. Namely, $$$$. Or rather, €€€€.

What’s the point of the polka dot jersey? The King of the Mountains is obviously not the best climber. They need to kill this competition. Or redesign it so that the King of the Mountains really is the king of the mountains.

I think they tried that this time around with hilltop finishes getting double the points or something (am at work so I can’t check the exact rules). But I definitely remember the talk from the beginning of the tour, of how they were adressing this issue with the king of the mountains competition. I’m sceptical of whether it will work, since contenders for the jersey can still try to accumulate points on the eralier mountains before the big shots really go for it.

In the various Grand Tours, there’s a clear delineation between sprinter’s jersey’s and GC jerseys, and it’s pretty darn rare to see one rider win both in a Grand Tour - unless your first name is Eddy, and your last name is Merckx.

And therein lies the inherent identity crisis that is the King of the Mountains jersey. It sits neither here, nor there - halfway in between.

For example - if a GC Leader is in a winning break on a Mountain stage, even if he sprints for the stage win and bags all the KoM points, they still give the KoM jersey to 2nd place in the competition, which means you’re wearing it only because the GC Leader can’t wear two jerseys at the same time.

Alternatively, if some guy goes roaring up the road like Richard Virenque used to do, whilst not being anywhere near a threat to your GC Leader, the leading guys on GC will happily let them get away in a break and bag all the KoM points because they’re not a threat either - which again means that who ever is wearing the KoM jersey under those circumstances is also a leader of “not much”.

It’s a very traditional jersey, and in theory it should still mean a great deal. Clearly, when I become President of the Internet, I’ll make a point of solving the problem! (smile)

My solution is to give a 1 minute time bonus to the first 25 riders over every HC or Cat 1 or Cat 2 climb.

And why the first 25 riders? It’s very VERY rare for a break of 25 riders or more to stay away on Mountain stages without the GC Leaders being in that break. You might get 10 or 15 sometimes, mostly 8 to 12 it seems to me. That leaves enough places back in the Peleton for the 1 minute time bonus to mess people around if they’re not attentive.

The bottom line is that it would force your GC contenders to always be in the first 25 riders over every major climb, and in doing so, the KoM competition by definition would become more relevant I rather think.

I really like this idea, allthough I guess there would be some haggling between the teams about the exact number of riders (why not 20 or 30), but that’s just details. Would you think a sort of bonification seconds system - where the first five get a minute, 6-10 50 seconds, etc - would make it even more exiting or do you think a fixed amount of time for the whole group is preferable?

Just want to chip in to say that Geraint Thomas might just be my new British sporting hero. Even if he doesn’t win this stage, I wasn’t expecting him to attack for the summit of the Tourmalet - and the guts to have a blast is all I’m looking for. With Gesink blown out of the back of the peloton on the Tourmalet, he might even be in with a shout of getting back into contention on the White Jersey.

ETA: He’s going to get caught for the summit but nevermind, at least he put himself up there in the first place.

Anyway, that is all. Carry on.

Contador will not win.

Andy Schleck and Cadel Evans stick 13 seconds into Contador. Frank Schleck sticks 33 seconds into Contador. Evans now has nearly 2 minutes on Contador and Andy Schleck has about 1 and 3/4 mins. Voeckler retains yellow.

Thomas got dropped by the lead group with 6km to go but should have climbed back into White - be interesting to see whether the effort he put in today kills him for the rest of the Tour. Good effort from him today though - great to see from a British perspective.

I think this tour is Andy Schleck’s to lose.