Tour de France 2011 (spoilers)

The Game Room
141

Like others said, it doesn’t look to me like they were going all out. Every attack was stopped as soon as it looked like others could follow. The moment Van Endert attacked you could see that everyone else was just looking at each other and I’d find it hard to believe this attack was actually too much for all the big favourites. But as you say, these are all just opinions.

This was the tv station, the driver herself hasn’t spoken to him yet (according to Hoogerland). Also, an interesting rumour has cropped up. There is suspicion that the woman who was alledgedly driving the car, wasn’t the actual driver at the time of th incident. In the same car there (appearantly) was a famous French tv-personality and there are pictures from after the crash where she is driving and he is sitting next to her with his head in his hands. Some people claim he was the actual driver and that they switched because of the possible consequences to his carreer.

I also think the next mountain stages will be similar. It just seems like none of the big challengers have the guts to really attack any earlier than the last few k’s. Contador is not looking in top form and Evans is sitting nicely where he is. Why the Schlecks don’t try to attack earlier I don’t get, maybe they are afraid to blow themselves up. One commentator said it almost seemed like they were afraid to lose each other. I think none of them are taking Voeckler very seriously (because he never showed this kind of climbing before) and that may give him a chance…

Also, appearantly Schleck said that Plateau de Beille was too easy a climb to get any time differences:eek:

142

Well this does make some sense. The steeper it gets the slower it gets. The slower it gets the less advantage drafting provides and the more it comes down to a pure power to weight ratio issue. The climbs in the Alps coming up are steeper.

143

Oh yes, lots of sleep deprivation at this time of year! It’s quiet a common ailment down here nowadays.

Indeed, I know of more than a few people who actually have a sleep at 7:30pm for a few hours or thereabouts and then get up to watch the stages live - which generally finish about 1:30am (our time). The sport is covered all season now by one of our main networks and it is becoming remarkably popular amongst the general population - primarily because the pace of the riders allows non cyclist viewers to really feel as though they’re on a quick live TV tour of Europe - kinda like a virtual holiday, if you know what I mean.

Personally, I’m quite fortunate this year insofar as I’m self employed as a software developer and I also get to work from home, so I get the best of both worlds - I get to watch all the stages live AND I get to do some training on the bike in the middle of the day.

But yes, the sleep deprivation is a killer if you’re not that lucky, and yes, there are tens of thousands of Australian TV viewers (at the very least) who suffer this problem annually now!

144

Wow, the GC guys are slugging it out on a the one 2nd category climb of today. Contador is looking a lot better than earlier and the Schlecks are in trouble. This promises something for the rest of the week! Only Evans and Sanchez following now, and up for the sacry, scay descent (remember Beloki and Armstrong). These guys may gain some serious wime if they follow Sami Sanchez downhill!

145

As soon as I read this comment I thought “That’s bullshit!”

The only guys who get better on even steeper climbs than Plateau de Beille are sub 60kg guys like Pantani and a few of the Basque Euskatil riders. That’s where to true featherweight angels come into their own, and the Schlecks aren’t those sorta guys.

My gut feeling about the Schlecks was confirmed today, in my view.

146

The Schlecks are done.

It appears Contador is back on form (although I suppose we won’t know for a few days), but even if that isn’t the case, they need some serious time on Cadel Evans for the time trial. Frank especially who is a beyond brutal. They haven’t proven able to do that in any stage thus far.

Since andy clearly can’t descend himself out of a wet paper bag, Cadel, AC, and Samu or some combination need to end this thing on the final descent tomorrow.

147

Didn’t see that coming.

Cuddles looks stronger every day. He’s outright favourite now at $2.30; Contador $2.85.

148

I think I’ve completed my journey from kinda being a Schleck fan to being a complete non-Schleck fan. First it’s the course’s fault for not being hard enough going up the Plateau de Beille, and now the race organizers shouldn’t have any downhill finishes because someone might end up in the hospital. :rolleyes: Quit yer whinin’, boy! It’s your fault you didn’t just put the hammer down in the Pyrenees and leave everyone behind. Yeah I know Frank wasn’t with you. Frank’s all grown up and can look after himself. If you had the capability, that was your chance to put time on Cuddles and AC. And it’s your fault you had no answer to Bertie’s attack today. And it’s not unfair that the Australian ex-mountain biker can ride downhill faster than you.

Jeez. Either leave everyone in the dust on thursday and friday to take the win, or shut the fuck up.

149

Like I said the other day, the Schlecks had to watch out for Sanchez, who was coming up behind them both on GC. They did a poor job all round on that Category 2 climb just before the descent into Gap.

Personally, more than a few comments by Andy Schleck in the past 12 months indicate that he has lived in a permanent state of denial regarding Alberto Contador being the better rider in 2010 at the Tour. The way the press built up the dropped chain incident, “I was robbed!”, the way that Leopard-TREK was built after the mass defection of key riders and personnel from Bjarne Riis’s Team, a case can be made that Andy Schleck has believed his own press way too much in the context of his actual winning results thus far in his career. Frank, not so much. He seems to have a bit more mongrel in him but he had some bad luck in the past few Tours de France and was out of the running early.

Watching both Schleck brothers turn into GP2 cars while Evans, Contador and Sanchez firmly continued being F1 cars was a delightful moment for me, at a personal level, because my rough “back of a postcard” mathematics indicated their form in the Pyrenees wasn’t matching anywhere near their hype - both self expressed and media expressed.

It’s one thing for Andy Schleck to have been dropped by the Taipan Trio on that climb, but not only that, he then got dropped by Voeckler’s chasing group and he couldn’t even stay with them on the descent - whereupon he lost over a minute to Voeckler’s group. And I note with some relish that Frank didn’t exactly fall back to lend a hand, heh heh heh. In fact, I have a suspicion that Andy Schleck was dropped by Voeckler’s group even before the summit on that Cat 2 climb.

I get the feeling that Andy Schleck believes his own press a bit too much, and in doing so, gets easily beaten psychologically. "Man, you just got dropped on a Category 2 climb? You’re supposed to be the best climber in the world! What went wrong? What went wrong?"

I have to say I’m surprised that there wasn’t another guy going off with the Taipan Trio, namely, one Phillipe Gilbert. That Cat 2 climb seemingly was the perfect attack gradient and distance for him. It was a classic case of being at the back of the group at the wrong time and not being attentive when it counted, which can happen. He only finished 20 seconds behind Evans by the end of the stage, as did Frank Schleck.

Andy Schleck lost a whole minute to the Taipan Trio. I actually saw a member of the public making the “Loser!” hand sign to their forehead on the final straight. I must look for a photo of that f I can.

It was Thomas Voeckler who dragged that chase group home to the line I reckon. He was at the front the whole way. As for Evans? He actually got out to 8 seconds on Contador, using my “Thousand One Thousand Two” method where I spot an object on the side of the road and count the time gap. Contador and Sanchez worked very well together to close that gap down to 3 seconds I rather think.

It would seem that the Schleck brothers have a very VERY narrow operating range of Optimal potency. Outside of those narrow parameters, they’re essentially passive spectators most of the time.

150

Bottom Line: If you’re Andy Schleck and you’re supposedly a Tour de France major contender, you shouldn’t be finishing in 36th place in a Stage immediately before the Alps. with 5 days to go.

151

One criticism of Evans, perhaps, is that if he’d worked with Contador and Sanchez on the descent, perhaps he’d have gained a bit more than 20 seconds, no? I can see both sides of this one, though.

I understand the notion that you need to bank more time on AC and it’d be a hard one to shake, but I think he should’ve started by putting the nail in the coffins of those left behind.

152

Well, BBF I remember watching the sad sight of ASchleck and AC attacking Cuddles over and over alternately on a very steep climb till he cracked and they got away a few years back (can’t remember where exactly). That informs my view not to absolutely write the Schlecks off at this point. However, I agree that there are no signs that their form this year will allow them to make a miraculous showing in the Alps and their status as contenders is dwindling to an extreme outside chance.

AC and SS are by all accounts very good friends and I think that what we may see is them working together to crack Evans in the Alps. Each may figure that without cracking Evans neither is going to win, and one giving the other an advantage is small price to pay for the potential benefit.

drm I don’t think I agree because I think that Evans (and his team director) would have absorbed the fact that the Schlecks etc couldn’t follow the “Taipan Trio” (thanks, BBF) up the climb. At that point they probably concluded (correctly IMHO) that the Schlecks etc are not in the form required to gap Evans in the Alps, so Evans remaining true rivals are AC and SS.

153

Funny TDF incident: I was on vacation last week at a Lodge/Summer Camp-type place. There were a group of people riding around on rented bikes…one guy said to his companions, “I’ll have you know that this is the first time in 20 years that I’ve missed the Tour!”

154

Very similar feelings here - was a big fan of Andy’s when he was coming up. This year though, he’s really making a show of himself through the media. Maybe things are getting lost in translation, although his English is excellent AFAIK.

Either way, the guy badly needs a sit down with Jens Voigt.

155

Wait until I start referring to the Twinkle Twins! And I dare not plagiarise “Battered Sav” or “Hello Sailor!”.

For non Australian Dopers, feel free to use your search-fu on “Roy and HG”, two Australian national treasures who used to mercilessly lampoon the Olympics. And no, no relation to “Siegfried and Roy”.

156

Certainly, the two of them showed yesterday that they’re quite formidable when they work together, taking turns. Realistically however, Evans only needs to watch Contador now, I rather think. It won’t do Evans’ reputation as a passive rider any good, nonetheless, Evans has the strongest hand it would seem at this point. Which I can’t lie to you, I never thought I’d see the day I’d say that.

I honestly never thought I’d put Evans into the “very top calibre” of the sport, because you’re always biased if you know what I mean. “Back in my day, they were REAL stars!” But the facts are that Evans has 1:57 on Contador at the time of writing, with 3 days in the Alps remaining, plus an ITT after that.

I swear, back in 2004 when he got dropped by T-Mobile after his disastrous Vuelta, most of us who had contacts in the pro ranks were sure his days as a pro were over.

Anything can happen of course - including a dreadful crash - to anybody at any time. You don’t want to see that though. You want to see a win, based on merit.

Given Contador’s crash on Day one, plus all his other falls etc, given his menacing, venomous attacks yesterday, it is a real credit to him that he’s where he’s at. And Contador is cunning too. He showed his hand yesterday. No more hiding.

157

Fascinating ending to what had been one heck of a boring Tour. Berti’s Tuesday’s “revival,” of course, at the heart of the action. I’m going to agree with BBF’s assessment, and though as himself, thought I’d never say it, I’m saying this is now Cadel’s Tour to lose. That said, he’s in for two hell-days as the Shlecks can no longer afford to simply check Conti and it’s more than possible we may see a ESP/LUX alliance what with Berti/Andy/Samu & Frank all taking turns at cracking Evans. I also think the Col Agnel climb is what could really make this stage – breakaways or not, the pace set there could well determine who’s get the legs left for the the other two.

One thing Cadel cannot afford to do is to try to match Conti’s acceleration in any one attack, but rather keep his diesel cadence and hope that’s enough. If he does go, pretty sure he’ll be toast, if not on the first one at least by the fourth – and here’s betting Alberto’s not leaving any shells in his chamber. Tomorrow is live or die, Friday is survive by any means possible.

Clearly biased stage prediction:

1-Alberto Contador

2-Andy Schleck + 41"

3-Samuel Sanchez + 45"

4-Frank Schleck + 47"

5-Cadel Evans + 1’ 15"

Weather in Col di Galibier for tomorrow.

158

Dude, are you serious!?! Boring? Are we watching the same Tour, or are you just bummed that your man-crush on Bertie is unfulfilled with him several minutes back?

We have a 40km time trial on Saturday and an epic ride waiting in Friday going up Alp d’huez…and if the Tour ended today this would be one of the most interesting Tours to watch in years.

159

I have to agree with DragonAsh. I haven’t enjoyed the crashes and nervous riding, but it’s to come up with a Tour in a very, very long time where the outcome was comparably uncertain.

160

Have to add to the chorus here - boring Tour? Not feeling that one at all mate.

Anyone see pictures of the Galibier on today’s coverage? There’s been a foot of snow on the top this week, but expected to be largely gone by tomorrow. So cold, wet roads to add to the mix of what should be an epic stage.