Travel opportunities/recommendations for vaccinated persons in the near future

I have never really been on a real deal tropical vacation to a place like Hawaii or the Caribbean, and I would like to. During the earlier part of the pandemic the travel destinations have been underbooked and therefore cheap (places just trying to stay open). Same with airline tickets, they’re just trying to get anyone on their planes. I suspect that we won’t see full travel capacity again until late this year, but this is just a guess. I have no idea what’s actually going on with travel. That’s why I’m making this thread.

I was just recently vaccinated and I’ll be fully vaccinated in about 6 weeks, which corresponds to the end of the school semester anyway, so I’m targeting sometime in May. I thought perhaps this would be a reasonable opportunity to take a trip that might normally be out of reach for me.

But I don’t really know what’s going on in the travel world right now. Are good deals going to be available in a couple of months? I know cruise ships are shut down right now, but are resorts operating normally? I know some places have quarantine restrictions, or recent negative test restrictions, like Hawaii - but if you have proof that you were vacinated over a month ago, can you bypass those requirements? Will having some sort of vaccine card be a useful tool for travel? Will resorts/airlines/etc. require one?

Is travel volume generally down over normal? I know at the start of the pandemic, no one wanted to travel, but since it seems like everyone has gotten bored of being responsible you see things like massive gatherings for Spring Break in Florida. Does that mean resorts are back up to operating at full capacity, or is vacation travel still depressed?

So I’m looking for both general advice about the travel scene in the world right now, where it will be in 2 months, and specific travel recommendations. I’ll be travelling and sharing a room with my girlfriend, so boarding costs will be split two ways.I don’t need to stay in a fancy suite. I want to go somewhere where I’ll be out on a beach, or in a fun bar, or going on an excursion all day, so the room isn’t that important. On the other hand, if nice rooms are available for cheap, then why not. We’re in our late 30s. Party spots or quiet spots are both fine. A younger crowd would probably be better than an older one if I had to choose.

I’m content to rent a VRBO/airBNB away from the tourist areas to save money, and rent a car, if that’s the best way to go. I would like to have a car to explore unless I’m staying in a resort with a lot of ameneties. But I’m really flexible. If staying on a resort is within my price range, I’m fine with that too. Are all inclusive resorts worth considering? I would also consider a cruise, but I’m guessing based on there being sort of a “cruise” crowd, and cruises being shut down, that the cruises will be solidly booked if they’re even operating by then, so it seems unlikely they’ll have a great deal compared to non-cruise options. But I would really like to go on a Caribbean cruise and get a feel for a lot of different places.

I want somewhere with really nice beaches, a nice breeze or less scorching hot temperatures would be preferred (I know late May is not ideal here, but small islands may be more protected from the heat than Mexico for example). English or Spanish speaking area are both fine. We want natural beauty, nice beaches, snorkeling, maybe boat excursions like sunset cruises or some sort of water sports. Jet ski rental maybe. Maybe hiking, if it’s not too hot. If a resort has pools and lazy rivers and that sort of thing, that’d be fun.

I’m flying out form Las Vegas, so Hawaii and the Caribbean are equally distant from me. Mexico is closer. Ideas so far include getting VRBO on Oahu, perhaps a resort in the Caribbean - Punta Cana, DR and the Bahamas seem like good options, maybe Cancun, Cabo, or one of the lesser known Mexican vacation towns, but I’m open to anything. Value for dollar is more important than specific country or location.

If possible, I’d like to keep everything - airfare, board, food, etc. under $2500 per person. I’m hoping that can buy about a week (splitting the room/vrbo cost). I’m fine with being relatively frugal - I don’t mean “make all your food in your room” frugal, but I won’t be going out for $60+ dinners every night or getting drunk off $20 drinks. I’m good with trying the locals places rather than the touristy ones.

Where should I even be looking to try to find good deals?

Any general info about the state of the travel market, or specific recommendations for vacations would be appreciated.

Air travel is even cheaper than I thought. I was idly looking up some flight prices - not even deal hunting but just looking on google - and flying from Las Vegas to Maui in May is $296… round trip. That’s crazy. That’s normally like a $1200-1500 flight.

The hassle with Hawaii right now is that you need a negative test right before you travel, which can be an expense and a hassle. I would think places would start allowing you to prove that you’re fully vaccinated in lieu of a recent test, but I’m not sure if that’s happening yet. I’m not sure if there’s a reason they’re not allowing that, or if it’s just that the legislation hasn’t caught up yet.

Do you think places that require testing or quarantine will start accepting vaccination status instead?

Belize or Costa Rica gets you the best of why people travel to the tropics, but with less tourists (which is a big plus for me, but others might view that as a negative).

Belize has the added plus that everyone speaks English.