My Current Thoughts: (Part 1)
Dante G:
Why I think **Dante **might be Town:
• He votes for snfaulkner(Post #371), who will probably be my vote for Today.
• PreCam was on Dante’s case. If it was a setup on Dante G, that could be why PCM was killed. Hmmm…
Why I think **Dante **might be SCUM:
• Day 1. When Dante says he should vote for Prof P, or** Sario**, but does not, he says it would “be better for myself” not to join a wagon. At the time Dante is voting for Mahaloth. Dante says he didn’t understand what the cases against the two (Sario/PP) were all about, but as they were explained multiple times on the first Day, I don’t understand that. There were cases, and the cases were better than his against Mahaloth. Dante had no trouble suspecting WFTomba on Day 1, though he forgets whether he voted for him or not.
• When WFTomba starts asking about how often there are mislynches on Day 1, (when Prof. P has the most votes by far), Dante jumps in to say that “I can almost guarantee it is high.” The “it” being the number of first day mislynches. This may be stretching, but I find that discussion of mislynches most ill-timed because it seems to me it was spreading seeds of doubt about the vote for Prof. P.
• So maybe Dante is not voting for Mahaloth the first Day to lend cover for Mahaloth and to give himself a Scum vote later (or vice-versa: If Dante had been lynched and flipped Scum, it would have provided Town cred for Mahaloth). Maybe Dante actually felt Mahaloth was the best candidate as Scum. OK. So Day 2 comes around, and we find out that Prof.Pepperwinkle was Scum. Does this increase Dante’s suspicion on Mahaloth? I guess not, because Dante promptly forgets his vote against Mahaloth and goes after others. I can find no post where Dante reassesses or reaffirms his feelings on Mahaloth at all, despite having voted for him the day before. I find that strange.
• The “Lynch** Precam** to throw suspicion on Dante” is a theory we have bandied about. I just don’t quite understand it. Why would the wolves pick Dante to set up? This was only night 2. The wolves have several players who are making detailed analysis. “Let’s kill **Precam **to set up Dante G?” Is that how an experienced player like Mahaloth would think on Night 2? And would the wolves really imagine we’d jump right on Dante G. without questioning what was going on? This sounds more to me like Town conjuring up complex wolf theories as opposed to looking for the simpler explanation. I think either the wolves somehow found out about Precam’s power role or made a lucky guess. I don’t think Dante had anything to do with it at all. So I guess I am putting this in my Dante/Scum file because it cancels out the “set-up” theory, in my mind anyway. YMMV.
I get a Scum read from Dante.
+++++
DeadCat:
Why I think DeadCat might be Town:
• While I stand by the analysis that no one is confirmed Town, DeadCat is as close to it as I have. He made a strong case for** Professor P** on Day 1. He was the first to vote for Mahaloth yesterday. DeadCat has made several strong analytical posts. DeadCat changes his mind, but when he does he gives his reasons for it. To me, changing one’s mind is not a Wolf tell, but a sign that someone is trying to read through these hundreds of posts over and over to get at the truth. DeadCat has made thoughtful posts about every player here, which shows to me that he is thinking about every player here.
Why I think DeadCat might be Scum:
• The “die on a hill” switch on Day 1 is still a possible black mark. The switch came at an opportune time for Prof. Pepperwinkle. I think the strong belief and then a switch is Towny seeming. But it is possible I am wrong.
I get a Pro-Town read from DeadCat.
+++++
Hooker Chemical:
Why I think **HookerChemical **might be Town:
• **HookerChemical **has posted several well thought out analytical posts. Hooker has also come under a lot of suspicion, but he has answered those suspicions with more long thought-out posts that ring true to me as opposed to a wolf struggling for an explanation.
• His post #517 does come immediately after TexCat’s excellent dissection of Mahaloth one post before. As Hooker notes, these posts came exactly one minute apart. It is not possible that Hooker read TexCat’s post, realized the jig was up, and then jumped on the bandwagon. Nobody types that fast. So I think Hooker was really suspecting Mahaloth.
• Hooker’s postings on Day 1 may give the impression of someone looking for another wagon to take off and thus save Professor P. But I also think it more likely that Hooker was doing this to see what reactions he would get to the voting. Hooker was voting for others (Sario, WFTomba) well before a Professor P. lynch wagon got rolling. So I don’t really think this argument against him is a sound one.
Why I think Hooker might be Scum:
• He didn’t see the case against Professor P on Day 1. I don’t think it was necessary to vote for Prof. P., but I don’t know why he didn’t acknowledge the case. Mahaloth also didn’t see a case, but then of course Astral didn’t either.
• **Hooker **voted quickly for Dante G. on Day 1. If it was a set-up, then Hooker either played right into the wolves hands or he is one himself. It just seems rash this time to vote so quickly.
• Hooker is not shy about voting. It could be because he is fishing for reactions. It also could be that his constant voting and switching is meant more as a distraction, or to feed suspicion and then slip away unnoticed.
I get a Pro-Town read from HookerChemical