I think it would have produced amazing amounts of information if it had been during the brief window of the circular firing squad or prior to the circle forming.
Here’s the thing I can’t get past that is currently giving me the slightest of townie edge to HC: That third vote on Mahaloth to get the bandwagon rolling.
I just don’t buy the “wheels within wheels within wheels” argument for that. Yeah I suppose it is possible, but not likely. Yet I don’t want to vote for DC yet. I don’t think a tie right now is a good thing. And I’m not sure what to do at this point. Except go get a burrito and check in on the wifey and that poor sick doggie 
Reminder: the Day ends at 11:00 am EST tomorrow.
Ok, well after much much much deliberation, I really really really don’t want to create a tie. However I still can’t make myself believe the “wheels within wheels within wheels” theory is more likely than the “trapped in an early bus attempt, oops!” theory. Occam’s razor (Hanlon’s?) and all. Oops beats out evil genius. So, with MUCH pain…I have to…
VOTE DEADCAT
Biotop, I really think we need to not have this be a tie. Though I’m out of time and too emotionally drained to really make more of a case than I just did. I’m not even convinced that I’ve convinced myself. Secretly, I’m kinda hoping YOU are the wolf. And if you are, I welcome your mauling toNight.
This may be my last post before EoD. I have about an hour until I leave work. I will try to stay updated on the game, but I have to go deal with emotional wifey (Poor doggie is looking grim).
All of you guys have played (what I think is) a great game and I’ve loved and hated every minute of it. I look forward to playing with everyone again. And I’m eager to fly off to the well of souls to see how much I’ve embarrassed myself in front of all the cool kids.
snfaulkner, I am sorry you are going through a difficult time. This is just a game and if we get it wrong there is still a 50% chance of winning toMorrow.
You know, there is probably just as great a chance that I get mauled tonight as you if we get this wrong. Because with two players left it won’t matter much which of us is left around with the Wolf. But let’s stay positive and hope for the best.
I have still been going back and forth on my vote, so I may well change it. Or maybe at this point leaving it all up to the coinflip is the easiest and the right thing to do. That gives us a 75% shot at the win. And I won’t have to reread this silly game anymore.
So, from my point of view there are two possibilities here:
-
Scum Biotop sees my vote against him toDay and posts a rebuttal, then decides to vote for Town HookerChemical as he knows it won’t take much to sway me to do likewise. Meanwhile, Town HookerChemical is putting together a case against me. Seeing my switch seems to confirm his belief and so he goes after this, leading snf to vote for me also. This will make it easy for scum Biotop to confirm the mislynch late in the Day and give himself a 50-50 chance of winning the game.
-
Town Biotop knows my case against him to be wrong but feels like HookerChemical is the more likely scum. He therefore posts as such, causing me to switch my vote. Scum HookerChemical pounces on this and rides it all the way home to create the mislynch on me that will give him a 50-50 chance of winning the game.
As I have acknowledged, I find it very hard not to see Hooker’s attacks on me as indications of scumminess, but putting all that to one side, I honestly have trouble distinguishing between the two possibilities above. I can’t blame snf for voting for me as without my own knowledge about my true alignment, it does make at least as much sense as any of the other possibilities. I do therefore feel that I have failed. That being the case, maybe Biotop is right that creating a tie toDay is actually the right thing to do. But it just feels so wrong when we are so close to winning.
At the moment I guess a tie is better from my point of view than a mislynch of me. But I feel a win based on chance would be a hollow one. Similarly, I wouldn’t consider it a true victory if we mislynch toDay then win a coin flip. Ever since it was posted I have wondered why the scum win condition was to have more than half the live players being wolves, I think they should win with exactly half.
I think I’ll read the thread one last time to see if I can reason my way out of this dilemma.
Damn, I got caught up in things both before work and at lunchtime today, so I’m not going to be able to complete my review of the thread. I’m unlikely to be able to post again now until after end of Day. So I will have to leave this as my last word: if Hooker is really town, why has he refused, despite repeated requests, to consider the fact that he might be wrong about me and that Biotop is in fact the wolf? If he had put together a convincing case against Biotop, I could have been persuaded to switch my vote. But he wasn’t interested in doing so, he saw a mistake I made that he thought he could hammer me with and has gone for it without regard to anything else. In my view he is the one who just wants a mislynch at all costs, and he has found a way he might achieve this. As a result, I am more convinced than ever that he is a wolf, and even if I had re-read the thread and found something that might incriminate Biotop, it would have been hard for me to get over this and change my vote.
In an ideal world, snf would unvote me, which would result in a known (to me) mislynch become at least a 50% chance (better, in my view - probably 80%) of a successful town win toDay. But given his time zone and dog issue (which I am sorry to hear, completely non-game-related), I think that is unlikely. As such, the best I can hope for is for Biotop to leave his vote as-is, which gives town a 75% chance of winning if Hooker is scum and a 50% chance if not.
Although the idealist in me doesn’t like leaving it to chance like this, at the moment it’s our best hope. Maybe town Biotop will feel the same way.
Of course, if Biotop is scum he could try to secure better chances of winning by making a last-minute vote switch to me. I will try to keep an eye on the thread just before end of day in case of this, Hooker if you do too then we can act to prevent this, if you are town after all. There really should be something in the mechanics that would prevent such a post by Biotop at 11.59 - maybe the day should be extended by a few minutes in the event of a vote in the last 5 minutes of the Day? Note that I am not suggesting that for this game, just as a possible future improvement. On the whole, I think Biotop is town and I trust him to leave his vote where it is.
I considered it at Dawn, and came to the conclusion you were scum (60/40). Your actions since have reinforced that conclusion to the point where it’s 90/10. As such, I don’t see the benefit of a case against Biotop. I believe that it is strategically almost as bad to lynch Biotop as a lynch of me.
Even if that were the case, we know snfaulkner will be incommunicado and won’t switch from you, meaning that both you and I would have to switch to Biotop. If you believe that I am scum as strongly as I believe you are scum, would you trust me to vote Biotop and leave that vote there until EOD? I don’t trust you to not switch back at 10:59. There is no upside to presenting a case against Biotop.
If Biotop is scum, a tie between you and me is as good as a 3-1 vote. Either way, a townie is lynched and the game goes to a coin toss.
DeadCat: What could I possibly gain by switching at 1 minute until EOD? I have made my case and listened to both you and Hooker. After going back and forth last evening I have decided to keep my vote where it is. If you are the final Scum, all I can say is “Good game…and I wish you bad luck on the coinflip, and if there is a second coinflip i wish you bad luck on that one as well.”
snfaulkner: I don’t much like the tie thing either, but my gut has said Hooker up until this point, and I can’t change that just to avoid a tie. I think it is very possible that** DeadCat **is the final Scum, but I still think Hooker has the edge for reasons I have already posted. So I can’t switch to DeadCat just to keep it from being decided by a coinflip.
HookerChemical: If you are Town I am sorry. I did the best I could. And if you are Scum, then I commend you for putting yourself in a position where you can still win. And all I can say in that case is “Good Game… and I wish you bad luck on the coinflip, and if there is a second coinflip I wish you bad luck on that one as well.”
I guess we will all know soon enough.
So I guess we are in Night time now. The waiting is going to be difficult so I hope Johnny Bravo is able to let us know the results shortly.
I had an interesting thought last night regarding this game. All the players left are newbies. In the last Mafia game I posted about how I thought experienced players had a “built-in” power role by their very experience. We newbies are just sort of feeling our way in the dark, trying to even get a grasp what is going on. Experienced players have done this before, and have seen the game swings and various Town and Wolf play.
But newbie players have a “protective” power too. We are very unlikely to get night killed in the first half of the game. The experienced players who are familiar with other experienced players go first. The wolves were never going to kill me or** IRConfused** the first night. But Astral, despite being very experienced, had little chance of lasting a long time.
Mahaloth has a history of dying early because wolves fear him and Town will wonder why he is still alive. I believe experienced player Chronos said last game that he is frequently killed early. Being a newbie may be scary, but we do get a lot of practice!
*Suddenly, out of the palm trees, a ghostly drum floats across the clearing.
brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr…
*
I will update before the end of the day. Expect something within a few hours.
Argghh!! The tease.
I am going to the UVA Glee Club Christmas Concert with my wife tonight. I hope the news comes out before then, because if I keep making excuses during the concert to step out to the Lobby to check my phone, then my wife will probably do some night killing.
Biotop, thank you for keeping faith in me. I think the fact you didn’t switch to me shows that we were right and Hooker is indeed the final scum, as we should shortly see. If so, I don’t blame you at all, snfaulkner. I made a crucial mis-step in the last Day which allowed Hooker to get his teeth into me. Hooker has played an extremely good game and in many ways deserves to win. As such, perhaps deciding things on a coin toss or two is the right outcome. It also demonstrates what a well-balanced game it is. Regardless of the outcome, which will now be decided by chance (though I think we should really call it a tie either way), I’ve had a blast. Thanks all, Johnny Bravo in particular.
A few hours?! I might be in bed by then, and if so I won’t sleep!
No worries, JB. After weeks of tense suspense I guess we can just about handle a few hours more. Again, well played everyone.
I’m also itching to read the peanut gallery thread, but I will hold off until a result is officially confirmed, just in case the moderator has any final tricks up his sleeve…
That was assuming you were scum. If you were town, I agree it doesn’t gain you anything in particular and you should just switch to me if you thought I was the right choice. Happily, you didn’t. What I missed, of course, is that if you are the final scum, you don’t care if me or Hooker dies, so there would be no reason for you to make a last-minute switch! So your scumminess is still a possibility - I seem to be still making mistakes despite the game having ended for all practical purposes - unless I get mod-killed for discussing strategy during Night :).
I guess the final scum isn’t outing themselves just in case of further shenanigans.
The waiting is killing me again.:rolleyes:
I’ve sent out a bunch of tiebreaker instructions to players who I currently see online. I’ll use the first two responses. So if you’re reading this, check your PMs.