Depends on the odds you’re offering.
I gave Fiveyearlurker 5:1. Terms: if on Jan 1, 2019 Trump is President, I win. If he resigned or was removed from office you wins. If he died in office, neither wins.
[QUOTE=Okrahoma;20459874 If he died in office, neither wins.[/QUOTE]
I’d call that “everybody wins.”
So (again, these “facts” are as you claim, not as really happened, IMO) it wasn’t ok for those who didn’t want Hillary to be elected to cheer on Russian meddling. In fact, a lot of posters here characterize it as “treason”.
But it’s ok for those who want to get rid of Trump to cheer on Russian meddling. Not “treason” at all. Right?
You must not be all that confident, then. That’s just an 80% chance that Trump remains as President into 2019.
I thought these were “desperate hopes”. 20% sounds a lot better than “desperate”.
I would argue that hoping that Mueller does not find anything untoward in Trump’s finances is a pretty desperate hope.
Ah but you gotta earn your $. Have some skin in the game. So - no bet?
I do respect your money being where your mouth is, for what it’s worth.
Voters “who didn’t want Hillary elected” didn’t commit treason, even if they cheered Russian activities during the election. Members of the Trump campaign (perhaps including Trump himself) may have done something very wrong (I’m not prepared to call it “treason”) if they colluded with Russia to sabotage the Clinton campaign. And those of us who would welcome Russia coming clean with how they’ve been manipulating Trump and American democracy are not guilty of treason either.
On the other hand, if Biden 2020 campaign is negotiating the release of the Trump Hooker Piss Tapes, and promising to ease sanctions in 2021, then yeah, I’d have a problem with that.
Yet another false equivalence.
You apparently cannot discern the difference between Russian officials actively working in concert to interfere in our elections, an attack on our sovereignty comparable to invading our shores, v. Russian officials using material provided to them by a dipshit private citizen in their own country, doing… whatever it is he does.
If Russians filmed Trump doing nasty things in a hotel room in Moscow, sure, that’s unscrupulous. But it’s Russia – a country basically on par with Trump, ethics-wise. What else did he expect? It was completely within Trump’s control to give them such material, or not.
Smart people don’t do things while staying in a foreign country that could be filmed and later used to compromise them. Bet the Russians have zero kompromat on Obama.
And yes, if Trump worked to assist the Russians in their election meddling, in my opinion, he is a traitor for having given “aid and comfort” to them in their efforts.
I’ll bet if you’re truly confident – say, if you’re 97.5% confident (i.e. 40-1 odds). I’m happy to bet on a “desperate hope”, for which 2.5% would certainly qualify.
But 20%? That’s actually a pretty reasonable hope. Reasonable hopes happen pretty damn frequently, and that’s not much of an ROI for something that you’ve repeatedly characterized as “desperate”.
So are you willing to put your money where your mouth is – that you really, truly believe that Trump being out of office is a “desperate hope”? Or are you not nearly as confident as your bluster would suggest?
Ok. Let’s explore this logic. Did the Democrats who supplied money to Steele to pay Russian government operatives to provide the “facts” he documented do “something very wrong”? Is that “collusion to sabotage Trump candidacy” (and now Trump presidency)?
Nah. That’s not enough of your skin in the game. You’d be getting off too easily. 5:1. Take it or leave it.
I’m not sure I’m following your accusations. But I think you’re saying Democrats were funding an investigation to figure out how Russia was blackmailing Trump. I don’t see a problem with that.
I’ll leave it.
I want to bet with a very confident Trump supporter. Not a sort-of/kind-of-confident Trump supporter with a lot of bluster.
I’d even go down to 20-1 – that’s 95% that Trump will still be in office. But apparently you’re not nearly as confident that Trump will still be in office as your rhetoric suggests.
I see. By the same logic, if anyone paid Russians to hack into DNC servers, it would be “funding an investigation into DNC’s wrongdoings”.
I am giving you better odds than all the betting sites. If you were a smart better, you’d arbitrage and come out ahead.
I don’t bet, normally. Only when I see very favorable odds, like your claim that there’s only a “desperate hope” that Trump will be out of office in 2019.
But since you could have taken your money to PredictIt and gotten better odds for your position, you must bet for other reasons – perhaps to demonstrate confidence. I’m just trying to see if you’re actually nearly as confident that you say you are.
So far, you don’t appear to be. 80% confident isn’t that confident at all. Ships don’t go to see if the engineer thinks there’s a 20% chance they will fall apart and sink.
The bet is not to “go to see”. It’s to make people who are so gone into partisanship that they are making up reality put some skin in the game. 20:1 does not accomplish that goal. 5:1 does (barely, but does).
Are you saying that there are posts of mine that qualify as “so gone into partisanship…”? If so, which posts?
As for “skin in the game”, I don’t buy it. If you really were 99% confident, then you’d offer better odds, since you’d have the potential to make so much money. Think of all the people who would gladly chip in $5 or $10 – they could add up to a nice pay day if you’re right.
I’m happy to pony up more “skin” if you meet those better odds – how about $50, at 20-1 odds?
I think it’s much more likely that you’re just not terribly confident. You’re kind of confident. But if you really believed that it was only a “desperate hope”, then you’d put your money where your mouth is and offer truly “desperate hope” odds.