On Predictit, the question of whether Trump will be President at the end of 2018 is running basically 3:1. Predictwise seems to be about 4:1. Paddypower is 3:1.
Anyone betting against Trump at 1:1 on this question is a gold-plated sucker.
I’m not interested in betting (wouldn’t do so even if I was 100% sure I’d win) but I am interested in the terms of the bet.
If Trump issues an executive pardon to any of the players before an indictment is filed, do you lose the bet?
The wording of the email seems to be done with the express purpose of incriminating Jr. Rather than using subtle or ambiguous language that could be taken other ways, they are very clear in describing the purpose. "As part of the ongoing Russia-Trump partnership, we need to meet so we can give you highly sensitive and damning info on your opponent. " It seems like they were planning on making sure the email and the responses got leaked and wanted the topic to be as unambiguous as possible. Plus, the response is magnified because we have the lies and cover ups from Trump and the WH which are completely discredited by the email chain.
So you think it’s fairly reasonable to think that Flynn, Carter, or Manafort broke the law, but you’re denying that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia. Yeah, that makes sense.
And, once again, the issue is Muller’s investigation into Russia’s interference in the election that is the issue, not one 20 minute meeting. The meeting is part and parcel of a larger problem. Wanting to bet on this one thing is like wanting to bet that the Patriots won’t score a touchdown in the third quarter of the Super Bowl if there is 13:20 to 12:19 left on the clock. Who the fuck cares? The issue is how the Super Bowl is going to turn out.
Anyway, I’m dropping this because it’s clear that you will not want to put your money where your mouth is in terms of potentially illegal conduct of the Trump campaign with respect to Russian interference of the election. You’re clearly just going to keep coming up with ways to try to limit the bet to absurd technicalities or episodes, like it only counts if H.R. McMaster gets indicted, but doesn’t count if Rudy Giuliani does.
And I’m totally sure that you’re going to crow about nobody taking your silly bet. But I know the facts: that you aren’t willing to risk a measly $100 on whether Trump associates violated U.S. law.
That more than anything exposes the huge deficit between your words in relentless defense of Trump, and your actual faith in the arguments you post.
No, then the bet is off. Because there is no way to know if the indictment would have been filed.
Translation: if there is anything, no matter how minor and how minor a player, that we can “get” Trump with, Ravenman will be satisfied. Whatever floats your boat, I guess.
As I said, any indictment on something wonky like not registering as a foreign lobbyist for Flynn, or something that happened way in the past like Manafort’s dealings with Ukrainians, or someone in a very minor position - is irrelevant. It won’t hurt Trump or his administration. Even if Mueller (booga!) causes the indictments.
Let me give you today’s reply. Ahem.
“Not illegal! Not illegal! Witch hunt!”
The low bar set for Trump has been lowered to actions above which could be considered “possibly, but not definitely, barely legal”.
This week, in a nutshell:
Wow, Donald Trump, Jr. killed a hooker.*
You don’t have any evidence of that.
They found the dead hooker in the trunk of his car, with a knife and his prints.
That doesn’t prove anything.
And six more dead hookers in his basement.
Can you prove that he even knew about those? You can’t.
What about the three-camera HD video of him killing the hooker?
I don’t think that’s even him in the video.
But he brought in a studio audience. Their tickets said “Watch Donald Trump, Jr. Kill a Hooker”.
I’m not sure it’s even illegal to kill a hooker.
Then he published that editorial in the Washington Post, “It Was Definitely Illegal When I Killed That Hooker”.
FAKE NEWS!!!
And he recorded that single, “I Sure Do Love Killing Hookers”.
What about all the hookers Hillary has killed? That’s the real story.
- I’m not saying that Donald Trump, Jr. has killed a bunch of hookers, but you can’t tell me you’d be surprised.
Except my record of posting proves that this is not true. For example, a few weeks ago, a lot of people on this board started calling for Sessions to be prosecuted for lying on his security clearance forms because he didn’t disclose certain meetings with the Russian ambassador.
If I was as narrow-mindedly partisan as you accuse me of being, I would have joined those calls. Instead, I argued against them and said that Sessions not including those meetings not only didn’t constitute a crime, but was probably the reasonable thing for him to do.
I’ll put my record of not debating things solely for seeking partisan wins against your posting record any day of the week.
I can get much better odds on the betting websites. Why would I bet with you when I could make more money elsewhere? If you want to bet with me, you’ll have to offer better odds than those websites.
Or perhaps you’re just not all that confident?
Kushner’s time in the barrel is coming too.
I really do believe that these people didn’t think that they were doing anything particularly wrong at the time. As former CIA director, John Brennan, said: “Frequently individuals who go along a treasonous path do not even realize they’re along that path until it gets to be a bit too late.” Which may explain why they were so poor at covering their tracks.
Currently not thinking “indictment”. Thinking “resignation to spend more time with family”. Probably not even spy stuff. Probably money.
Mr. Mueller was specifically empowered to pursue investigation in whatever things surfaced in the course of his primary investigation. By an extraordinary coincidence, he is hiring lawyers for his team who specialize in fiscal tomfoolery. (In lieu of a cite, type “Mueller money laundering” in your Google. Take yer pick…)
Gosh, Mr President, sir! Awful lot of money got churned through your various real-estate deals. You probably didn’t know this, that’s why you weren’t suspicious. Innocent as you are. We may have to take a close look at yer books. All of them. Gotta be thorough, ya know. Could get awfully expensive, what with fines and confiscations, stuff like that. You wouldn’t know this, being such an innocent lamb, frolicking amongst the daffodils BUT! (I like big “BUTS”, can’t deny it…)
Prosecutors tend to get testy and irritable when their efforts are stymied. You know, stack this penalty upon that penalty. Million here, million there, pretty soon you’re talking about real money. You got that much money, sitting around in liquid pools? Can you actually sell your assets for the value that you claim to possess? Just so you know, people who live under bridges, because they are broke, get poor limo service.
Now, of course, if you were to quietly fold up your tents and steal away into the night? Might go a lot easier. Might be the impetus for another blockbuster book: The Art of the Plea Deal.
TL:DR It won’t be the collusion, it will be the money. Fuck off, or we take every dime. Il Douche will bail, as in “GERONIMO!!!” Won’t even have to prove it in court, because he already knows. Just put the papers on the desk, and the pen, and “Adios, motherfucker!”
Groovy.
I know one of the people named in that article. Not well, but we’ve met a couple of times at events.
Ok, if you insist. 5:1. Better than the web sites. That on Jan 1, 2019 Trump is still President. Deal? You get $500. I get $100 if I win.
The important thing to keep in mind here is that we need to find out who leaked the information about Trump killing a Hooker. That’s the real crime here.
And both sides do it. The other important thing to remember.
Quite fascinating.
I’m sure this is not a problem though, because NOT ILLEGAL! HILLARY WOULD HAVE DONE IT TOO! WITCH HUNT!
My mistake. I was looking at odds on whether he completes the term. (Odds on him leaving office in 2020 or later are 50.4% on electionbettingodds.com. Odds on him leaving office in - rather than by - 2018 are at 21.3%, plus 10.9% for 2017. So more like 3:1, as you say.)
I’ll take that if no one else wants it and you arrange a way to broker it. I’ll even slightly sweeten it by adding an “all bets off” for death (which the way you’re phrasing it would unfairly be a loss for you).
(Editing to indicate that I don’t mean to step in and steal a bet if the original people involved in conversation want to jump in! Only if others out.)