Heck, the first part is also still to be determined. I doubt he makes it through the pre-bout commentary before making it about himself.
I feel compelled to repeat this every time it is brought up. I was a young adult and had followed politics for years. This idea that the scream undid Dean is incorrect as a historical matter.
Prior to the voting, Dean led in all the polls. He was leading Bush in most polls. He was considered to be all but the Dem nominee and perhaps the new President. But a couple of weeks before Iowa, his support started dropping. Then the votes came in and showed that it had absolutely cratered. He finished a distant third.
Nobody thought that he would come out sobbing and he would certainly try to put a positive spin on what was clearly a disappointing night, but he came charging out like he won the Super Bowl, rolling up his sleeves and barking that he was going to this state and that and winning the whole thing “Yahhhh!”
It was simply bizarre and made him look very fake. It was clearly a disappointing night and his reaction had no place. I watched it live and me and everyone else (before the comedians got a hold of it) were wondering if he had just become unhinged. The scream wasn’t mentioned contemporaneous with it.
In short, he had already lost the campaign. The scream was a bit of comedy.
In 2004 there was still very much a strong establishment element to the Democratic party, and they were not going to let Dean just take over. Kerry had the money and the endorsements. Once Kerry started advertising in Iowa and NH, Dean was toast. That’s what made Obama’s rise so remarkable 4 years later. HRC had the machine for much of the election cycle, but Obama came on and really started challenging her inevitability, and over time, she crumbled.
Keep in mind the reality of Dean’s situation too, he was much further to the left of the average Democrat, in 2004 than even Bernie Sanders was in 2016–and note Bernie solidly lost to Hillary, who was not a great politician or particularly popular. Dean was all but certain to get pounded in the primaries as they moved out of “quirky” small states that are always idiosyncratic, so even had he done well in Iowa and New Hampshire he was a dead man walking. He ended up not even doing particularly well in those states.
The reality is everyone knew it was going to be John Kerry, but John Kerry wasn’t a good news story or all that exciting, so the story was Howard Dean. Then reality started occurring as people actually voted, and it was obvious Dean had no chance. The coverage of the Dean Scream is a really good example of irresponsible and stupid journalistic behavior, but it certainly isn’t why Dean lost.
Even in 2020 with an average Dem electorate much further to the left, note that the moment the real voting started there was a dramatic selection of the moderate path, despite the crazy buzz around people like Bernie and Liz going in to 2020’s primary elections.
So, does anybody know how he did? I mean, I can guess…