Played a bit with that 538 app and dang if you are not right though, assuming no changes in turnout and no change in Asian/Other. Loses the popular vote by 3% but wins the electoral college 278 to 260. Now mind you lose a little of Asian/other too and it flips.
Only move non-college educated White up from Romney’s 62 to 69% with no other changes and he still loses though. And he’s not even close to there.
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Trump ‘on track’ to hit an historic low with Latino voters**
An interesting analysis of the White non-college educated voter in Rolling Stone. They are far from all the same in regards to Trump themselves.
It would be interesting to see the different swing state results broken out by White college vs non-college educated.
Ohio would be particularly interesting. The Appalachian counties are less blue than they used to be but many still lean Democratic. White, low education, rural, extremely poor, gun loving Democrats…oh my! Some of the northern Democratic strongholds include a number of working class Democrats that aren’t particularly socially liberal but support the party because positions on unions.
Two groups that both fit the Trump demographic on the surface but would usually expected to vote Clinton… like you said it would be interesting to see.
When they way “college educated”, do they mean graduates only?
Yes.
You wascally wabbit you.
The map has changed as of late. Nevada is turning red in the now-cast, and Ohio is red as well, according to polls plus.
Polls plus has got Trump back to where he was pre/post-GOP convention, now-cast has him nearly back to where he was on July 31st.
That’s the statistics.
Trump has never had to appear one on one in a debate for an hour and a half with someone of Hillary’s talent. True, his believers will think he won if nothing more than drool comes out of his mouth, but he will look anything but presidential and informed. Maybe your local high school could beat the Patriots, but maybe only once in a million years. That’s how overmatched he is.
I had the same question about a similar stat (at 270towin.com ?) , and found that, at least in that case, “college educated” included people with any college study.
Is anyone else terrified that the only thing standing between the U.S. and its first openly-fascist regime at this point is a stellar debate performance by Hillary Clinton (which will be graded on such a ridiculous curve that even the tiniest mistakes will count hugely against her)?
I don’t understand how things got this way. I mean, I knew we had problems as a country, but deep down I always thought we were better than this. So much for that illusion, I guess. 
I am now slightly nervous. If 538 has Hillary in the 50s or below for more than a couple of weeks, especially if it’s after the 1st debate, then I will be very nervous.
But she’s still got a significant lead in enough states to get 270, with NH being the closest (at about 66%, I think, in the polls only right now) of this 270-firewall. I’m still optimistic and only slightly nervous.
Could that include me? I did attend some college at College of Dupage between 2013-2014, and COD states that having CompTIA A+, Network+ & Security+ qualifies for a certificate (the System Support Specialist certificate, that is), albeit I obtained those certificates (including the latter one (Sec+) tomorrow- I’m confident :)) by self studying.
Well, looks like I have to walk this one back, I guess. I still don’t understand how Trump is competing in these states other than he must be dominating the white vote at records not seen since the 1970s.
Here is the recent Monmouth University poll of Nevada
I’m a bit surprised he’s capturing 28% of the Hispanic vote in NV.
Non-whites could include African Americans, too, I suppose? I know that non-whites mostly consists of Latinos in NV though.
But perhaps Clinton advantage among non-whites, while marked, is perhaps a bit overdone. At any rate, even if non-whites don’t like Donald, they have to be motivated to vote for Hillary and maybe they just aren’t quite as motivated as they were for Obama. That’s one of the factors that’s different between Obama and Hillary: minority voters, especially black voters, wanted to be a part of history and they felt a connection to Obama that they just don’t have with Hillary, so she can’t rely on Obama’s vote numbers to necessarily be a reflection of her potential to capture the electorate.
PA is going to be much harder for Trump to win. He’ll do well in Western and Central PA, but the East is typically dark blue. Still, if there’s an enthusiasm gap, who knows…
Much harder than what? I suspect he’ll come closer to winning PA than McCain or Romney did.
You don’t get how these debates work, I guess.
Even when you know how these things work, it can be hard to shift your thinking.
If the polls show Clinton in the 50s in key states following the debate, that’s very good. With some votes going to third parties, it’s likely the winner will have less than 50% of the vote overall.
But if 538 shows Clinton in the 50s that’s not good at all. It means the race is essentially a toss up, with either candidate about equally likely to win. And if Clinton falls below 50, it means she’s more likely to lose than to win.
As Election Day approaches, the polls should stabilize, hopefully with Clinton at about 55%. But that means the 538 models should approach 100% as that six or seven percent gap becomes harder and harder to close. If that doesn’t happen, I’ll be very nervous.