The vast majority of Trump’s supporters are angry white nationalists whose lives aren’t all that great and they look to Trump to right those wrongs. He cannot, and likely would not even significantly try in office, this core of supporters view anything he says as ‘sticking it to the man’, that has allowed black liberation, Hispanic immigration and other things they blame for the collapse of the “white man.”
This isn’t something easy for me, a life long Republican, to say–but the reality is the GOP is no longer a functioning political party. The White Nationalists we have tolerated to win elections have taken over the party, only a purging fire can restore it.
Clinton’s task is to make sure the “middling” voters who might vote Trump but aren’t his core supporters, recognize how inherently unfit for the Presidency he is and vote for her as the only remaining “competent candidate of a rational America.”
Yeah, to be honest depending on which recent poll you look at anywhere from 70-90% of Sanders supporters now support HRC. Sanders attracted support from a lot of people who, historically, were either not registered to vote, had let registration lapse, or who didn’t consistently vote with either party. A lot of them were the same people who frequently support fringe candidates (both inside and outside of the major parties), like Paul, Nader, Kucinich or etc.
The ones of that bent were likely “never gettable” by Hillary. But they also weren’t gettable by Obama in 2012–and he won without them; he got some of them in 2008, and some have speculated his drop in support from 2008-2012 was in part losing the “loony fringe progressives” who only support lily-white “pure” candidates, and a sitting President can never be that. It’s the actual Democrats who voted for Bernie that she cannot afford to lose, but it’s also the actual Democrats who voted for Bernie that have largely gotten behind her candidacy. The angry and loud and passionate “Bernie Bros” or whatever you want to call them aren’t a significant and meaningful deciding factor in the general because they are historic non-participants (either through not voting or wasting their votes on third parties) in those elections.
I think strategically Clinton has chosen the correct approach for her focus. If she loses this election it’ll likely be because Hispanics and blacks do not turn out in 2012 or 2008 numbers, so she’s been correct to focus on that as much more important than trying to win over Bernie Bros that probably wouldn’t vote for her if Jesus Chris proved himself real by coming back, descending from the heavens, and anointing her as the only acceptable candidate. On top of that, disaffected Republicans, middle class whites who are swing voters, are all much more important than angry, fuming lefties who through their own unwillingness to compromise or engage in pragmatism have long been outside the political process.
It’s not my quote, don’t recall whose it is, but if Trump wins, liberals will have to come up with a better idea to win next time than saying half the electorate is ‘angry white nationalists’, or racists in the original quote.
This kind of statement basically ignores the question of why/how Trump could lead in national polls (though he doesn’t in all of them, and well might not in the actual election). It’s not plausible that someone a ‘vast majority’ of whose supporters are ‘angry white nationalists’ could do that.
If you don’t understand the problem, you can’t fix it. If you want Hillary to win you’d better hope her campaign brain trust is coming up with a better answer than that.
I’d put it in the “less likely” category, but what makes you so certain? He’s currently getting support from ~56% of whites (from latest LA Times poll). What makes you think it’s impossible for him to increase that another 9%?
I just wanted to say that I just registered to vote for the first time in my life in no small part due to polls like this one. I’ve always been apathetic to politics because I’ve always felt that neither of the major parties reflects my beliefs and that my vote likely would not matter anyway. However, this time I feel that even if my vote doesn’t make a difference, I couldn’t live with myself knowing that I did nothing to at least try to stop the election of the worst candidate of my lifetime.
People who’ve been assuming “Oh, he’ll never actually win” need to wise up to the reality that, yes he CAN. Sure, you can point to the hatred he inspires, but you’re not voting against a candidate, you’re voting for one, and I just don’t see anyone in my circles inspired by Hillary. It scares the hell out of me that not enough Independents like me will do what needs to be done to stop Trump.
I think you misunderstand the portion of Americans who are white nationalists. I think probably something like 70-80% of blue collar, high school or lower educated whites are white nationalists. That isn’t synonymous with “members of white supremacist groups”, which is a different thing.
Predictwise now shows a 33% chance of GOP Presidential win in November.
Betfair shows a 33% chance.
Iowa Electronic Market shows a 34% chance.
Predictit implies a chance of 36+%.
Hypermind shows a 43% chance. (Is Hypermind pay-per-view? I just took the summary from Predictwise.)
Nate Silver shows a 47% chance. (With the key swing state Pennsylvania turned blueish since yesterday.)
By now? No, not really. This is July. We vote in November. Trump depends on outrage. He has already suggested that we, essentially, ditch all our trade agreements and maybe pull out of our defense agreements. Only the densest and most unchangeable morons are going to still be with him by that time.
As a bonus, he has single-handed solved the Dems biggest problem: inspiring turnout. And, so far, a handful of prominent Republicans have publicly turned away from their party. There will be more.
I’m a Democrat, and I’m worried about Trump’s recent rise in the polls. I agree that vast majority of his support comes from white nationalists. What worries me is that if we assume that is true, what explains Trunp going from an 80/20 underdog to even odds? I don’t think that white nationalism has had a major increase in the last month. I’m guessing it’s one or more of the following. .
Disaffected Bernie Bros turning against Hillary.
(Some) moderate Republicans jumping on board the Trump train.
Traditional (Ted Cruz style) conservatives jumping on board the Trump train despite Cruz not endorsing Trump
Where has the GOP’s electoral base been for the last 40 years? It’s been the Deep South. When did that happen? It happened when Goldwater came out against Civil Rights and Johnson came out for it. Before that, blacks somewhat split between the two parties. FDR had started to draw lots of black voters during the Depression, since many were willing to cross over from their traditional support for the “party of Lincoln”, especially outside the old south, due to his progressive economic policies.
Goldwater made a stand against the Civil Rights Act based on small-government, small-c conservative principles. Many then and to this day accused Goldwater of being a racist–a claim I don’t support, I don’t think his beliefs were insincere, I think he was genuinely opposed to what he saw as an overstep in Federal authority. He supported civil rights, but on a state by state level in a way that didn’t violate the traditional laissez-faire approach from the Federal government in terms of business regulation. Now, I disagree with Goldwater, personally, as I think the approach we took was absolutely necessary.
Since that time we (I say this as a Republican) gained a massive number of racist, hateful white voters. We’ve accepted their presence with a few conceits:
Real Republicans are Republicans for small-c conservative principles, pro-business, pro-growth policies, free trade, a focus on free markets etc. We are not against civil rights.
If racists in the South happen to vote for our economic agenda because they view it as being against the Democratic welfare state, which they view as primarily benefiting blacks, it’s unfortunate that their thinking is informed in this way, but we’ll happily take their votes.
The problem is this has proven to be a devil’s bargain. We didn’t just get their votes, we’ve also had to accept their way of thinking. The party I’ve been a member of my entire life is now primarily represented by what I’m calling the White Nationalist wing, these are the huge number of blue collar Southern whites who dislike blacks, and view the Federal government as a vehicle that taxes them and gives their money to “undeserving blacks” who are lazy welfare leaches.
Well remember Trump only had about 35-40% support from the GOP electorate when there were alternatives; but in contests where many are plurality takes all that was enough to win huge delegate totals. I think that was enough to put Trump at polling of maybe 30% nationally, which obviously he’s never been that low. Another 10-12% I think come from “establishment/mainstream GOP who will ever and always vote straight ticket GOP no matter what”, that pushed him to 40-42 where he was initially.
I think his gains in the last 20-25 days have come from more independent blue collar whites and others who have started to “decide” and have been breaking ‘against Clinton’ more than “for Trump.”
