Rasmussen says the Friday tape release was good for a 6-point swing for Clinton. Massive.
Deep dive shows Trump’s favorability in the NBC poll has shrunk to 29%.
Congressional Preference: Dems lead by 47% to 42%.
The October surprises have pleasantly surprised me, at least.
I know! In one speech Hillary mused about the theoretical advantages of a single world government for four whole sentences. She must be stopped!
My hunch is these numbers are a blip and the race will settle to a 4-5 point Clinton lead in a week or so. But who knows? If these numbers hold up, a Democratic House will be a serious possibility.
I think the race was 4-5 pre-tape. The tape will move things a point or two.
I’d say it probably settles in at 6-8 points. Not enough to win the house.
That said, there’s also a decent chance of yet another Trump scandal. Something else big-ish (recording of him using racial slurs, for example), might well and truly lead us to landslide territory.
If the rumored n-word tape were to actually surface, I don’t think there’d be any precedent for the bloodbath that would follow.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/hillary-clinton/article107265182.html
This will definitely help her in Florida, not to mention all across the country.
Oh, and Marco Rubio used to be a director of this organization.
The 538 Polls-Plus now has Hillary at 79.8% chance to win, beating her previous high of 79.5% on August 8.
A decent chance, yes. Assuming that they have sewn his lips together and taken away his Twitter phone, so he can’t make it any worse. 'Course, that assumes that nothing else that he has already said doesn’t come bubbling up.
Pubbies have to contemplate which is the better alternative, the frying pan or the fire? If they ditch Trump and depend entirely on the relatively sane corporado Republicans, they will lose the support of the Trumpiviks. Conversely, if they go all in on Trump, they have to be in an environment that is wholly and totally Trump…which is where, exactly? What state, what congressional district, is so solidly batshit baboon that just Trump supporters alone will ensure winning?
The Pubbies are going to lose some House seats. Enough? No, probably not. But Hillary doesn’t scare the corporate Pubbies as much as Obama did. For no good reason, of course, Barry ain’t no socialist. But Hillary will play reach across the aisle, just like Obama did, but with better chances of success.
If Hillary can break the deadlock of Federal judges, then the courts will no longer be as constipated. The voter suppression shit will get canned. House members are always running for re-election, they start campaigning before they take the oath. They’ve only got two years. They’re gonna be nervous, especially the ones who just squeeked through. When she pets them on the head and whispers “compromise?”…they will listen.
From your lips…
But I don’t think so. The Trump News Network will hold sway over the GOP primaries, and if anything the GOP House will be worse 2016-2018 than it was under Obama.
Not gonna happen. Any Republican rep who seems the least bit inclined to work with Clinton will get primaried to within an inch of his life.
This articlesuggests a six point Hillary lead may be enough to flip the House.
The latest NBC/WSJ Congressional pollfor 8/9 Oct has the Democrats up by +7 compared to +3 last month.
My sense is that Trump did enough in the debate to halt the slide and he unveiled some effective attacks on Hillary which he will be able to run with over the next month narrowing the race back to around 4 points. This won’t save him but it could save the GOP House majority.
Of course if there are any more truly damaging Trump tapes, all bets are off and a Democratic landslide could happen.
Yeah, I can relate, I’m a pessimist too, and like all of our ilk, I am convinced that I’m a realist. Nice thing about being a pessimist, you are seldom wrong, but when you are, it doesn’t sting nearly as much.
Back in '08, I was gritting my teeth getting ready to vote for Hillary, because I thought Obama couldn’t do it, America wasn’t ready. I was wrong. YAY!
After the second debate, I’m done with Trump. I think the world needs more love and less hatred.
Any moderator willing to change the title of this thread please do so to something relevant (the current is no longer relevant).
Still serves the purpose for statistics and poll nerds to know where to gather. Mostly harmless.
Polls-plus is now over 80%
Right – technically, Nate is telling us “Trump could win…” even when Hillary is winning 99% of the 20,000 runs (using any of his three models).
Hillary up 11 in latest PRRI/Atlantic Poll:
Not really true, and a lot depends on whether they seem to be doing Clinton’s bidding or whether she’s doing theirs. Part of the kabuki theater of compromising is loudly claiming that you won the compromise and Clinton is more likely to let Republicans go back to their districts and swing their dicks around than Obama was.