It’s not good news, but it’s also not really new news; the facts that ACA policies were going to be much more expensive this year, and that big insurers like United Healthcare and Aetna were scaling back their ACA policies (or getting out entirely) have been out there since the summer.
Yeah, my policy is going up 17% next year. I’m definitely unhappy about that, but I’m still voting for Hillary. Voted, I should say.
Maybe I’m giving too much credence to the Polls Plus expectation of 16.1% - despite the electoral map dictating that Trump has to “run the table” in FL, NC, OH, IA, among others - but the thought that the same odds as me picking up one ‘die’ on a Yahtzee game, telling you I’m gonna roll a 6 - and then rolling that 6 - are the same odds as Trump becoming our next Commander-in-Chief? My god that’s terrifying.
I think the race is going to get frighteningly interesting over the next 2 weeks. I still think Clinton will technically “win” on election night, but not by as much as people think and depending on how much momentum Trump has going into the final stretch, it might be enough for him to contest the election. We need Clinton to win convincingly but I’m not sure she’s going to do that. This is NOT a normal race.
Asahi, what do you base this latest nugget of wisdom on?
I’m more optimistic. 3 point Clinton win. Enough to put a slight chill up the spine of well, everyone but Trump supporters, but not enough to truly make things scary.
The really interesting part of the night is going to be the Senate. RCP has it 50-50 with no tossups. On that part of the election, I’m not conflicted at all. I want the GOP to hold the Senate. And although the odds are against them a bit(70-30 I believe), I think they can pull it off. That’s where Democrats might experience some real heartburn on election night, even if they end up succeeding.
Geez, asahi, put down the keyboard and breathe into a paper bag, already. 
Nobody remembers how “convincing” an election was unless it’s actually a court matter like in 2000. 2004 was very close but six months later George W. Bush was President and John Kerry was a guy who once ran for President. 1976 was very close but within six months I don’t even know what Gerald Ford was doing with his life and no one cared.
If Trump loses, he loses and he’s gone. The election result is binary; you win or you lose. If Clinton wins 270-268 she is just as much the President as if she wins 538-0. This is especially true in the case of the Trumpster, whose entire image is based on WINNING. If he’s a yuge loser, his followers will completely lose interest in him.
I’ve read multiple stories about declining attendance at Trump rallies, and the polling is reporting that Trump supporters are less certain that they’ll vote. There’s an enthusiasm gap, and it’s starting to work against the GOP.
As a general rule, the lower people are on the income scale, the less ingrained a habit it is for them to vote. And Trump’s core support is white working class men. As it becomes clear that they’re gonna lose regardless, and as Trump keeps talking about a rigged election anyway - both of which are arguments for ‘why bother to vote?’ - Trump supporters who aren’t habitual voters are likely to show up to vote in somewhat diminished numbers.
Also, as David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report pointed out nearly a month ago:
Think the Trump campaign (or the GOP) has gotten many of them registered? Wasserman looked, but didn’t find any evidence of it. The “missing white voters” who might possibly win this for Trump if they came out of the woodwork have largely sidelined themselves.
Hillary Clinton will be our 45th President. The question now is what the next Congress will look like.
Enthusiasm works both ways though. What happens to minority turnout if Clinton is assumed to be a winner? And what happens in the Senate if it’s a low turnout election decided by upper middle class and elderly whites?
We’re already seeing signs that Democratic enthusiasm and turnout are strong – early voting numbers (in NC, for example) are looking better for Democrats than they did in 2012.
Maybe. It’ll sure be exciting to find out. I’ve been wondering whether minority turnout problems in midterms is because its midterms or because there’s no Obama. This election will provide strong evidence one way or the other.
The polls also aren’t showing much of a worse performance for Trump with Latinos than Romney. And Gary Johnson is peeling off more Latino votes than usual for a third party candidate, so Clinton might actually do poorer than Obama among that demographic.
But soon we get to find out. Very exciting. It’s actually almost more exciting for me just from an intellectual perspective because I don’t care a lot who wins. I was much more emotionally invested in 2008 and 2012. I’m going to be more interested in the exit poll data than the final result.
$25 says it will be “mostly old white guys.” 538 has nothing on me.
I also think it unlikely that deliberately wrong answers to pollsters are a big issue. Which type of voter is willing to participate in polls could more plausibly be IMO, but there’s no track record of that being a big factor either.
However I can’t go along with equally likely. The general atmosphere here is a little extreme in labeling Trump supporters morally inferior, but there’s certainly more of that in the media/entertainment the ‘general public culture’ than the other way around. Which I’m sure many people could chime in immediately and say is justified…but still I don’t he how there’s equal general social pressure against admitting you’re for Trump as for Clinton. At a particular kitchen table, bar, etc. sure it could be as strong in one direction as another, but I mean the general atmosphere beyond that.
Still, doesn’t mean a shy poll respondent factor is major, I doubt it. Again more plausible a big over performance by Trump v polls would be a participant/LV error which previous cycles don’t predict because of the unconventionality of Trump; Clinton is conventional. Though to repeat, we know that didn’t consistently happen w/ Trump in the primaries.
Obamacare premium increases are not as severe as some think; HRC has her arms around what needs doing to get the program healthy and sustainable. Heck, what in the devil keeps us from insuring everyone under Medicare? Get rid of all the nonsense and stop the profit incentive for insurance carriers. Why not?
Trump supporters have their own media, and in that world, Clinton is Crooked Hillary and Trump is the hero of the common man. The fact that the older media outlets skewer Trump is evidence of the moral superiority of his supporters. It’s something to be proud of. Only the new, right wing media is fair.
It is difficult to exaggerate the schism between the two. Trump supporters actually do refer to Clinton as “Crooked Hillary” in common conversation.
I’ve never had a Trump supporter feel bashful about their choice. They are amazingly proud of their decision, hardly ever saying anything about Trump’s qualities, always saying they would never allow the she-devil to live in the White House.
Trump is polling at about 40%. So are you saying you meet a good variety of people and about 40% of them let you know how proud they are to vote for Trump?
I think asahi must work for the media and is doing everything possible to further the plot line of a close race. 
Hillary is going to win by double digits and a bigger electoral landslide than Obamas first win.