That’s because you’re not one of the groups who might actively suffer from a Trump presidency. Fear is a bigger motivator than “inspiration”.
Romney didn’t appeal to black voters but whatever antipathy there was was largely on economic grounds - he was seen as disliking the poor, not blacks per se. But Trump is the KKK’s candidate; his campaign has essentially brought them out of the shadows with the promise that their views will have a home in the White House. Why do you think Trump is polling at a historically low level with that demographic? It’s not Obama’s influence; it’s Trump himself.
Uh-huh. Good luck with that. Trump may win, but it won’t be down to minority support. If anything, it’ll be down to the ongoing widespread suppression of the minority vote the GOP are currently engaging in.
Low taxes, my ass. South Carolina has one of the highest state tax rates in the country.
People aren’t moving to the south for the low taxes - not working people, anyway. What there is here is jobs. And it’s changing the nature of South Carolina - I won’t speak to Georgia and such - in that many of the transplantees from Ohio, PA, MI and such are a lot better educated and bluer than the natives. It causes conflict.
4 to 7 on average is also where they have been on average. As has been pointed out to you before, polling results on independents have been all over the place from C+4 to T+20, but the average has been in the mid-single digits. Fixating on the outlier is something you do know better than to do. Winning independents is overrated.
It’s just one data point, but African American turnout in North Carolina was significantly lower during the first week of early voting compared to 2012. Turnout among white voters increased from 2012 to 2016.
It may be just one data point but unlike most of the other reports on Black early voting it is at least actually demonstrating that the absolute number of Black early voters is a bit off from the same point in the cycle in 2012. As the article discusses though it may be specific to NC and a combination of factors from the fact that “[f]our of the state’s ten largest counties, with the largest African-American populations in the state, all elected to open just one polling place for the first week of early voting” to other voter suppression techniques, to the impact of Hurricane Matthew.
Also more current numbers show Black early voting in NC picking up despite those obstacles.
From 10/28 to 11/2 the numbers went from 82% to 89% of 2012’s numbers to same point in cycle.
538’s doubling down on the uncertainty bit today is reaching entertaining contortions.
Now c’mon 538. You know the difference in reliability between the average of national polls in the week before an election and the vote results calculated by true aggregators, like 538 and HuffPo.
Yes, the simple average of national polls in the week before a national election has, since 1968, been off by 2.0 points on average. Once, 1980, by 7.2 (Carter-Reagan with their one debate the week before the election). But excepting that outlier (and let’s be fair and throw out the most accurate one too) the average since 1968 the even the fairly crude one week before national polls average have only average 1.62 off.
538 you simply have never been off by as much as much of a spread as you currently call the popular vote, 3.3, not even close. You may be this time, maybe one way and maybe the other, 'spossible. (And I have my reasons to think they will be Clintonward.) But spinning being your being off that much as something that would be “just normal error” is at best disingenuous.
polls this time of the year confuse me a bit. how do they handle all the early voting? I assume these polls are “likely voters” but if I already voted I wouldn’t identify that way. If early voting leans Democrat then wouldn’t polls always tighten as election day gets closer?
In asahi’s defence, I think he only said it would be really close and “at least one reputable polling group would show a tie”. Like I said before, I wish someone had started an asahi prediction thread maybe even instead of the adaher one.
That’s not what that link is. Despite its title, it’s an article by someone criticizing Silver. And frankly, RawStory is rather shite.
DSeid: I stand corrected.
Yeah, I’ve noticed Silver’s getting a lot of heat from liberal news media who don’t like his predictions. Makes me wonder if his popularity would dwindle were his models to consistently predict Republican success.
