(Carrying my thoughts from the other thread over to here)
I get the impression that when CNN’s Ellie Hoenig and others have said (paraphrased) that “Merchan won’t jail Trump for gag order violations”, they mean that they simply can’t fathom it happening. I think if they were pressed to explain what formed that opinion, they’d be able to offer something … but struggle to come up with something truly airtight.
Posters in the other thread and in the OP here have come up with reasonable and plausible explanations for a general reticence to jail Trump for gag order violations: PITA Secret Service/jailing logistics. Avoiding certain avenues of appeal. Political considerations such as martyrdom. And so on.