I get the impression that when Hoenig and others have said (paraphrased) that “Merchan won’t jail Trump for gag order violations”, they mean that they simply can’t fathom it happening. I think if they were pressed to explain what formed that opinion, they’d be able to offer something … but struggle to come up with something truly airtight.
Posters in this thread have some up with reasonable and plausible explanations for a general reticence to jail Trump for gag order violations: PITA Secret Service/jailing logistics. Avoiding certain avenues of appeal. Political considerations such as martyrdom. And so on.