That could work, yes.
While I admit some glee at the idea of Trump behind bars (if he “earns” this in a legal sense), I’m more interested in demonstrating equal justice in our system. Indeed, any partisan/personal glee is tempered by knowing how the “martyrdom” of Trump in jail (even if just for a few hours) could very well boost his political prospects. So be it.
I’m striking out so far in finding someone both (a) saying Merchan won’t jail Trump for gag order violations and then (b) explaining their reasoning. I’ve run out of time this morning to dig around. I’ll keep my ears open.
You just need to get creative in how you count.
If I were to go up to 5 different people on the street, and repeat something that violates my gag order, that could be counted as 5 violation, so a total fine of $5000. Why would it be different if I tweeted out my violation, and the tweet was read by 5 different people?
So count each read of his tweets as a separate violation. You’d be into the millions of dollars of fines level within days, I think.
An appeal because the judge is interfering with his political campaign due to his outbursts aimed at the judge/jury/whoever, therefore he can’t be impartial? (This is mainly pulled out of my ear, but I could see it floated, even if unsuccessfully). “It’s political!”
[quoting CNN commentator, not bordelond directly]
This is a very reasonable statement today. It’s totally unrealistic that the outcome of the hearing next week will be Trump going to jail. But if it is clear that Trump doesn’t care about the fines and continues to flout the judge’s orders, the jail scenario suddenly becomes much more realistic.
I don’t know if the commentator was specifically speaking about the current hearing, or if they truly think incarceration is permanently off the table. If the latter, I think they are very wrong.
Not exactly reset. They get two additional strikes each.
I get the impression that when Hoenig and others have said (paraphrased) that “Merchan won’t jail Trump for gag order violations”, they mean that they simply can’t fathom it happening. I think if they were pressed to explain what formed that opinion, they’d be able to offer something … but struggle to come up with something truly airtight.
Posters in this thread have some up with reasonable and plausible explanations for a general reticence to jail Trump for gag order violations: PITA Secret Service/jailing logistics. Avoiding certain avenues of appeal. Political considerations such as martyrdom. And so on.
That sounds like fantasy; SCOTUS doesn’t quickly do anything. I especially doubt they’d get involved in something as petty as Trump’s whims. “But Trump wants it” isn’t persuasive outside of the MAGA deplorables. I don’t think this is a point worth worrying about. If Trump needs to be locked up in some way, they’ll arrange something.
New thread, so as to not hijack this one:
Thank you so much!
In case you are wondering where you’re getting your news about what’s going on, per NYT:
Because technology use is limited — and phone calls are strictly prohibited in the hallways and courtrooms — reporters who need to make phone calls have resorted to using the 15th floor bathrooms. They’re using them to relay information to their editors and, in one case this morning, to patch into a live radio hit from inside a [bathroom] stall. The reporter did not convey on live air that he was inside the men’s lavatory, instead conducting himself with aplomb.
Thanks much for the effort!
I think the first judge to jail Trump is in very real danger from the MAGAmob.
We’re up to four alternates now. Just two more to go.
Likely a lunch break in New York right now, but if we keep going at this pace, we should have a full slate by the end of today.
We now have four total alternates and need two more. A couple have been dismissed for cause and I don’t believe any peremptory challenges have been used.
Per CNN: We’re now up to five alternates.
And now we are full.
Just in: The sixth alternate has been selected.
The whole selection process went much faster than I expected. This bodes well. I imagine Trump is going to be furious at his lawyers for failing to delay.
I wonder if the next step is the firing of the entire Trump legal team.
5 women and 1 man as the alternates.