As well as his entire campaign staff and numerous surrogates?!
“Sir, the debate’s coming up in…”
“Don’t bother me about that. It’s boring. I’m going to win bigly.”
“Yes, sir.” (hands him a stack of printed-out Fox News articles)
I’m not sure if you’re joking, but that would imply that Trump and the campaign staff are completely blowing off debate prep, etc.
If that’s the case, then I really, really want this debate to happen!
This is Trump we’re talking about. His idea of debate prep is “I like calling him Sleazy Joe. Do you think I should call him Sleazy Joe? Nobody ever thought of calling him Sleazy Joe before. Lots of people are saying Sleazy Joe now.”
See, I despise Trump as much as anyone here, but I don’t assume that Trump’s campaign staff is incompetent to this degree. (His operation does seem to be pretty bad this time around, but again… I don’t assume what I don’t know.)
I actually wanted to circle back to this (highly amusing) comment about Trump’s access to information. We take it for granted that most of Trump’s supporters are living in a news bubble carefully curated by Fox and it’s ilk to inflame their passions and paper over the cracks.
But, I think @Smapti makes a decent point that Trump is living in his own information bubble. I’m sure it’s loosing air in some places, especially after the conviction, but I’m sure recent print-outs are full of Very Important Republican Lawyers assuring all that the facts were wrong, totally bogus, and that the appeals will fix everything, and even if not the SCOTUS will or something similar. So he may be still able to engage in his classic assumption that he’ll always win in the End.
Still doesn’t change my opinion of what will happen regarding the debate though from post # 5.
“… two weeks.”
Since this is the thread for predictions about the debate, I will make some.
- Trump will attend the debate.
- He will deliver his usual shambolic, rambling, aggressively nonsensical schtick, along with offensive baiting of the President about Hunter Biden.
- By any objective measure, Biden will “win” just by acting like a normal human being.
- The major media will continue its usual horse-race style reporting, normalizing Trump’s behavior. There will be more hot takes about Biden’s age than Trump’s insanity.
- There will be little impact to the polls, and the campaigns will roll on as usual.
- Anyone expecting a dramatic implosion will be sorely disappointed.
Depressing, but that’s how I see it.
Trump-Biden has been sufficiently heavily polled nationally, for there to be rolling averages, since March 2023. Biden has never been ahead or behind by more than two points at RealClearPolitics.com for more than a day or two. AFAIK this level of stability is unprecedented in polling history. If there is a counterexample I’m missing, where another race was more stable, please advise. I’ve been wrong before 
I read this part of your post several times. It probably makes sense but is so far from my way of thinking that I did not understand. Trump plays chaos on TV because he is appealing to the disaffected. Idle threats are his foreign policy. But his operation is not particularly chaotic. Consider:
The Most Feared and Least Known Political Operative in America
If the claim is that third party candidates historically hurt incumbents, the sample size of two races is too small to be meaningful. It is necessary to look at each case.
Carter did not show up when the League of Women voters invited him to debate Anderson and Reagan. While my memory is dim there, I must have disliked that. Bush did debate Perot.
The third party candidates did not change the outcomes per most research.
Kennedy if well understood appeals to the same anti-establishment, anti-science viewpoint grouping as Trump. But if poorly understood, Kennedy can sound like an old time liberal alternative to Biden. So Biden needs for RFK Jr to be as well understood as possible.
Unfortunately, Kennedy looks like he will not meet the CNN criteria.
I don’t think he can back out this late. His strategy as I see it:
1- Just because the microphone gets turned off doesn’t mean he’s going to shut up. Scream and holler when it’s Joe’s turn to speak.
2- Fill his diaper before going on stage so the cameras show Biden suppressing the gag reflex through the entire debate.
I’ll add a (possible) #3. It’s my understanding that both participants are to remain seated. If this is the case, Trump will ignore it since imposing his physical presence when his opponent is speaking is part of his strategy. #3a:he will not be penalized for doing so.
Assuming that the debate takes place, what you say is possible. I’ve been watching lots of videos dealing with Trump’s speeches and the “Really American” YouTube channel’s podcast “Shrinking Trump,” in which two psychologists talk about Trump’s mental state. One thing they repeatedly note is that Trump does better in the morning than at night, which they say tends to be true of dementia patients. They also note that Trump’s performance these days (in terms of coherence, etc.) can be highly variable.
So it’s possible that Trump could have a good night. At least, good for him. I doubt it, however. Trump has not had to throw down with a political opponent in a long time, nor has he done much in the way of trying to appeal to the political middle. He’s out of practice and will be under attack and pressure from Biden. Anything is possible, but I think the probability of a meltdown is high.
But the probability of the debate itself happening? Low.
The polling has not matched up with our success in special elections. Polling for Trump’s primary races was horrifically off as well. I just don’t take the polls seriously these days–for anything.
That’s precisely what I meant. What Biden is selling is order; what Trump is selling is chaos. In terms of political image, brand, presentation, etc., it couldn’t be a starker contrast, any more black and white. So I don’t see how having idiot RFK Jr. participate in the debate would “shake things up” or do anything more than dilute and/or muddy the stark contrast.
We’re on the same page. Above you will find me saying to another poster that I don’t assume that everyone on Trump’s campaign staff is an idiot.
I disagree on this. I have seen data that RFK Jr. currently pulls more votes away from Trump than from Biden. That’s good.
What I think is unwise to assume, however, that that trend is maintained if RFK Jr. becomes better known, actually presents himself well in the debate, etc. It could very well be that, if he becomes better known, he becomes disproportionately known to a different type of voter and will then start pulling more votes away from Biden than Trump. It’s safest just to keep things the way they are now, in which the magnitude of the effect he’s having is on the small side and he doesn’t seem to be doing damage to Biden’s chances.
Further, RFK Jr. is an egotist himself and would love to play spoiler in this race. Do you want this guy to become more popular and purposely try to sink Biden’s campaign? No thank you.
Well, he couldn’t back out right after he accepted Biden’s challenge, but it has to be sometime, assuming that’s what he’s going to do. I think a week before the debate is optimal timing for him. Still an L, but the minimal L.
Donald Trump said something about the debate!
“Maybe I’ll lose the debates on purpose.”
https://www.reddit.com/r/inthenews/comments/1df5jmo/trump_tries_to_lower_expectations_for_biden/
Sounds positive!
His usual preemptive capitulation bullshit. It’s what true losers do.
P.S. on my last post:
Q. Do I believe the anonymous sources quoted in the New York Times?
A. Yes. Here’s why:
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There were similar news stories in 2016 and 2020 concerning Trump not having standard debate prep where he practice-debates someone who plays the role of this opponent. If these stories were false, it would have come out by now.
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These are the kinds of stories that would not appear unless the reporter(s) believed the sources were telling the truth. I’m not saying it is impossible to fool Maggie Haberman, but she’s an excellent reporter.
Trump will debate on June 27 because he’s an intelligent man who knows refusal to debate would hurt him politically.