Nah. That’s where his unshakeable self-confidence comes in. He’s absolutely certain that he’ll win bigly like noone’s ever seen.
You can’t think about this like a rational person. You have to think about it like a Trump.
I think he will drop out about a week before the debate, which means about a week from now. He won’t do it, say, a day or two before, since that could be interpreted as being owing to infirmity or inability, as opposed to his own personal choice.
That’s not surprising. The people in his inner circle are probably seeing episodes behind closed doors that makes his rambling monologue about batteries and sharks look like the Gettysburg Address, and they know how risky it would be to put him on a high-profile stage trying to field real questions.
I think Trump’s psychology in this regard is complicated. I think it’s a mix of narcissistic confidence, narcissistic self-doubt, and a massive dose of the Dunning–Kruger effect - Wikipedia.
I think he knows that, unlike past debates, he is not up to this one and will go down in flames. I don’t think he’s confident at all.
Trump is irrational, demented, and mentally ill, but I think he does have a smidgen of self-preservation instinct yet.
Again, personally, I would prefer him to debate. It will be an amazing act of political seppuku.
Precisely!
What is their long-term goal, then? Or are they just riding the tiger out of inertia?
I must say, I rather like the term, “political seppuku.” I’ll use it. Thanks for it!
Get paid in cash up front before he stiffs everyone?
I saw my first TV ad for the debate this evening. Trump is weaseling now, that there is maybe a 10% chance that CNN will be “fair” to him.
Unfortunately, I will be traveling that evening, so if it does happen I won’t be able to see it. My heart is breaking.
Trump took it back:
Trump says he would have ‘no problem’ debating RFK Jr. if he qualifies
And their preferences there were always irrelevant:
Here’s what it takes to qualify for the June 27 CNN presidential debate
Start with the swing state polls where Biden is behind. And then consider that even the best projection out there is alarming if you do not want Trump back in office.
Why wouldn’t we want to split the anti-science, conspiracy-minded vote between Kennedy and Trump?
dou itashimashite!
Ask Carter and Bush I how letting a third-party candidate debate worked out for them.
I don’t think that the solution to that* is “shaking up the race.” This race is already 100% shake, isn’t it? 100% order vs. chaos. Democrats are normal, while Trump is a fucking madman, and the GOP and MAGA are a fascist insurgency. How does greater participation by chaos agent RFK Jr. help us?
The solution is to maintain a solid trajectory (which we seem to have at this point), use the fiercest messaging possible against Trump and the GOP so as to sway as many “independents” as possible, have an outstanding ground and fundraising game (which the Biden campaign seems to have), and GOTV like a mofo.
The debate is the perfect stage in which to pound Trump and viewers with the message FELON FELON mutherfucking FELON, and having dumbfuck RFK Jr. on stage to dilute that does nothing for us.
He already seems to be pulling more votes away from Trump than from Biden. We don’t need to give this asshole any more attention than he’s already getting. Having him be as small a factor in the election as possible is probably the best strategy.
*Insofar as it is true. I accept the hypothetical here but personally think the polls are bunk.
Just another data point: I cited Ben Meiselas, but I am not seeing a single democratic channel on YouTube that has anyone with the opinion that Trump will debate. The overwhelming consensus is that he will not.
Agreed. As for the pounding, I’d like to hear Trump say, “And your kid is convicted, Joe,” only for Biden to reply, “That’s my kid, not me. How many criminal convictions do you personally have, Donald? Thirty-some, isn’t it? Thirty-four, I think. Gee, whaddaya know, I don’t have any at all. So I guess you win in the conviction department.”
It’s not Biden’s style to be that blasé. He may talk about how his son has had a hard life and made some poor decisions for himself, but he’s still his son and he loves him, but he isn’t gonna try and use him to score points off of Convict Donald, and he’s definitely too classy to attack Trump’s family the way Trump will try to attack his. At most, he’ll draw a comparison between how he and other Democrats have respected the judicial process while Donald has made a mockery of it.
I don’t think so. Trump’s inner circle contains only yes-men. Anyone who has the ability to recognize Trump’s problems would be expelled.
The GOP pols are all yes-(wo)men, in public at least. But I think it is an unfounded assumption that his campaign staff are all that way.
There is an art to managing, say, an emperor’s ego while providing advice. Trump may or may not have such people advising him.
Analogously, it is not known whether Trump wanted to testify in his recent trial and his lawyers successfully pushed back against the idea, or if Trump never intended to do so from the start (and his lawyers most certainly did not encourage it!).
It’s the same thing with the debate. Here are the possibilities (probabilities are all IMO):
- Trump doesn’t want to participate, and his campaign staff aren’t encouraging him. (75% chance per the reasoning of my OP.)
- Trump doesn’t want to participate, and his campaign staff are encouraging him. (Close to 0% chance. They would have to fight him to debate and then take the blame if the debate doesn’t go well. CYA wins in this case).
- Trump wants to participate, and his campaign staff are encouraging him. (10% chance per the reasoning in my OP).
- Trump wants to participate, but his campaign staff are discouraging him. (15% chance, with breakdown into 5% that they are unsuccessful, 10% that they are).
Here’s some more reasoning in favor of my position that bolsters the above percentages. If it’s #3 above, what’s the dog that isn’t barking? Why isn’t Trump blustering and bragging about his upcoming victory in the debate? He has been silent. Why has the campaign said nothing about it (that I have heard of) in their endless deluge of spin? NADA.
Well, the answer is that Trump and his campaign staff know that he won’t be participating, so any promotion of his upcoming performance would be counterproductive and make the L of his dropping out that much the worse.
Do you really think they would be saying nothing at this point?!
My answer would be that he’s forgotten it’s happening or has lost track of how soon it is.
I think all of them see his problems, because his problems are obvious up close. The only real inside supporters Trump has are fascist freaks like Stephen Miller and maybe a few Christian nationalists if he’s elected. Sure they are yes-men, but that doesn’t mean they are blind. Hell even Ivanka has taken a pass on Trump II, The Revenge.
Get in while the getting is good.