The rules won’t really allow that kind of interaction. And you can’t out bully Trump. It’s his only strength. It’s not Biden’s strength.
Let’s not fool ourselves into thinking Biden is some sort of master debater. He wasn’t even during his best days and those days are long behind him. I’ll be holding my breath and hoping he doesn’t fuck up.
There’s a difference between bullying and mocking. Dark Brandon seems to be pretty good at the latter. Laughing at a bully puts the bully off his game.
And most of Trump’s bullying happens when the target can’t hit back. He’s either on a stage by himself, just talking shit, or he’s in a situation where the other person can’t hit back, because Trump has all the power, like being the president, or having the MAGA hordes looming behind him when GOP politicians come to kiss his ring.
Let’s remember how he reacted when faced by someone who wasn’t cowed by him:
I think there is one way (and one word) that will make Trump go crazy and lose his cool: call him a loser. With a capital L.
Trump’s greatest fear in life is to be seen as unsuccessful, as a loser.
If Biden can answer the questions in the debate while using the word “loser”, Trump will throw a tantrum. Then in the next question to him, Trump wont even answer the journalist’s question, he will just rant and rave about how he is not a loser.
for example: If Biden is asked a question about, say, immigration, he can answer it diplomatically, but make his last sentence something like "trump couldn’t build his wall, so on this issue, he’s the real loser.
Then the next question might be about the economy, and Biden could answer with positive things about himself, but then end his comments by saying "but again, on this issue, Trump did (whatever)…so Trump is the real loser.
After 4 or 5 “real loser” labels, Trump will scream and foam at the mouth, rant irrationally, and possibly scare away some independent voters.
And, on the other hand…
This is also a real problem. Despite all his preparation, Biden may get his facts right, but he will not come across as a persuasive, charismatic speaker who inspires undecided voters to change their mind and support him.
And Biden has a lifetime history of bad blunders and poor word choice. One bad phrase could be enough to lose voters. Foxnews will blast it in huge headlines nonstop.
So, if Trump chickens out, it may be a blessing for Biden, too.
I’m kind of surprised by all the predictions that should a debate happen that it could be worse for Biden.
Doesn’t anybody remember what happened the last time they were on a stage together debating? Either of those 2020 debates that happened?
I’m not saying Biden was some razor sharp wit or anything but he did just fine. Trump, by contrast, looked lost and weak. Solid majorities of viewers thought Biden won handily. Only Trumps’ ardent supporters thought he won. That said, even if majorities thought Biden won, that does not appear to have changed any minds about votes in any significant way, i.e. a lot of Trump voters said Biden won the debates but did not care about that when election time came around.
Four years on with decent indirect evidence that Trump has, at minimum, lost several, several more steps than Biden, we’re supposed to believe that the result will somehow be radically different? That Trump will magically develop some kind of new debate strategy that will see him not only come out on top but look sharp, intelligent, and Presidential? That beggars belief and nearly a decade of our lived experience.
I think the thing is that people here keep making the false assumption that their words matter. That their rhetoric matters. That their relative performance matters.
It’s entirely possible for someone to “watch” the debate (while also on their phone or whatever), and perceive that Trump is basically Trump: a confidently bombastic speaker. The fact that his words objectively make less sense than four years ago only matters if you listen to the words.
On the other hand, Biden definitely looks old, and sounds old, and a large part of the right-wing (and presumably foreign adversarial wing) narrative is that Biden is incompetent due to age and / or cognitive issues. Anyone listening to his words will be reassured, but those listening with half an ear and looking at him, and making not an assessment but having a reaction primed by these narratives, could easily perceive Biden as too weak.
I don’t know what to do about any of that. In theory, a debate should be a chance to engage with the candidates’ ideas. But as we saw in 2016 and 2020, a large chunk of voters don’t care about the ideas, or else construct their own out of a series of badly articulated and vaguely associated concepts, and have them shaped by bad actors via social media.
I’m still of the opinion that Trump won’t debate, but if he does, it might well be because he understands (or at least instinctively groks) that it’s the performance package that matters for a lot of voters, not the substance. And he clearly still thinks he’s top of his game.
Sure, but that did not work for him 4 years ago. As above, most people, even people who eventually voted for him did not come out thinking he won or that he was at the top of the his game.
At some level, it does not matter. In 2024, it does not appear debates really change minds so much as it encourages or discourages people from coming out to vote. Turnout looks to be the deciding factor rather than winning hearts and minds.
By the same perverse logic that lets Trump get away with behavior every day that would destroy the career of any normal politician, he’ll also be hurt far less than Biden for any debate gaffes.
Trump could go off on some tangent about sharks, shit his pants mid-debate and confuse the moderator with Nancy Pelosi, and his numbers will suffer less than Biden’s if Joe so much as pauses too long before answering a question.
That said, I still think Biden will crush him. If he shows up.
Winning the debate: Biden just needs to establish that he’s both affable and as mentally sharp as he was during the State of the Union and 2016 election. Unfortunately, he has always been a gaffe machine. Trump has to paper over his mental decline with the usual aggression. Both candidates will be vulnerable to unflatteringly edited clip clips of the debate.
Is there an observable distinction between, “Lowering expectations of Trump’s debate performance”, and, “Laying the groundwork for Trump’s withdrawal”?
I think that, of these things, relative performance does actually matter. Who seems stronger and more dominant? Even people who take no intellectual interest in the words can see and care about the pissing match.
It matters if he seems weak, confused, etc.
This gets things backwards, IMO. Yes, that’s the right wing narrative, but every time Biden exceeds those expectations he looks good. That’s why his State of the Union Address was such a big deal. So now the surrogates are really leaning hard into this narrative that Biden was on drugs during the SOTU and will be during the debate. They are definitely afraid of Biden looking better than Trump.
I think Trump definitely groks that, since that’s exactly the kind of thing for which he has very strong instincts. But that’s the biggest reason why he’s going to chicken out!
I don’t know about this. I think in Trump’s head, delusion vies for supremacy with the aforementioned instincts.
I honestly don’t think the average voter even cares what happens (or doesn’t happen) at this debate. It’s way too soon. Anybody disinterested enough not to have already decided has better things to do than watch a mud fight between two guys who (given health and/or legal status) may not even be on the ballot in November.
I think the whole “Biden’s on drugs” thing serves both purposes.
I doubt the timing even matters for that purpose. They were held closer to the election in 2020 and did not move the needle at all - the few undecideds apparently weren’t swayed one way or the other.
The Biden team seems to have gotten this one right - use the debates not only to describe policy but also to draw attention to the campaign. If people by and large aren’t going to change their minds based on these debates, then use them to remind people there is an election and that it really does matter and work on the fundraising and turnout.
This. The groundwork is being laid for two possibilities:
Biden makes a small gaffe or two - this means that he is completely senile, and therefore Trump wins the debate. (as said upthread, Trump could shit his pants in the middle of the debate, and that will be overlooked)
Biden makes no notable gaffes, and in fact looks and sounds pretty darn good. This means that he’s on drugs and therefore Trump wins the debate.
I saw a brief video clip of Hannity claiming that Biden’s SOTU performance was the result of Biden being (paraphrased) “highly caffeinated… or something else” and that the upcoming debate might feature a drugged Biden, and I thought of the phrase I am familiar with due to this place: Every accusation is a confession.
I don’t think this is true any more. Negative information of this type is getting into the media, such as when Trump was sleeping at his trial.
Further, Trump was not said by the media to have won the debate in 2020.
Trump is not invulnerable–he actually lost in 2020!
I should have said “overlooked by Trump voters”. The media is so polarized at this time, if Trump shat himself, they would never, ever hear about it from their media sources.
Basically, yeah.
Though I wouldn’t even call it “polarization”: e.g., Fox News, Newsmax, etc., actively propagandize in favor of the fascists.