It’s more like information apartheid. Separate realities imposed from above.
In the mainstream case, “above” is objective reality, messy though it is, with some deliberate editorializing.
In the RW case, “above” is Murdoch and his fellow travelers with substantially no reference to reality.
Big difference.
IMO, Fox News still doesn’t realize after nine years that they can’t wag the dog when it comes to Trump. They can see he probably won’t do well and are planting stories to try to convince him to drop out, but the man is far too stubborn and deluded to take their advice.
And even the mainstream outlets will wring their hands so worriedly about how Biden looked, because Trump spontaneously combusting would be considered “just how he rolls, that’s not news”.
And at this point in time that happening would impress many of his voters since a lot of people read “agitated” as meaning “energized”.
Damn, remember back in 2016 when people were saying Trump just needed to appear like a normal person to look like he was winning a debate? Not even that any more.
I don’t think they are trying to wag the dog. I think they are constant contact with the Trump campaign and plant messages per Trump’s instructions.
I think you are exaggerating this dynamic a wee bit as it existed in the past (e.g., it was reported in the media in 2020 that Trump was not seen as performing well in the debates against Biden), but I think it is weakening more and more. Further, the whole “Biden is old” thing has been sticking with much less strength since the SOTU address.
That’s not really how Trump seems these days. Yes, he’s crazier than ever, but he is exhibiting symptoms like paraphasia that are associated with dementia, and he looks like shit. He is manifestly unwell.
I think he does need to appear as though he’s not dying, and he’s barely clearing that bar these days.
The Murochs are in a difficult position with Trump - he’s good for their ratings, but he’s also a legal liability for them. I’m honestly not sure what their agenda is at this point.
Fox News polls are showing Bidden ahead. MeidasTouch
Yup, I mentioned that in my other thread too. No bueno por Trumpo.
I would not claim to know how it all works–I have no insider knowledge. But, for example, someone like Hannity is apparently in regular contact with Trump and can put out messages for him to a pretty big audience.
According to a number of posters here, it is obvious that Trump has big mental issues he did not have four years ago, while Joe is fine. If so, media would be absolutely correct not to belabor the obvious (Trump is out of it) while pointing out Biden senior moments as beng surprising.
I do not watch TV and plan to read the transcripts.
Okay, I’m leaning more toward Trump debating Biden than chickening out. I think Trump understands this is important and he’s afraid of losing. Claiming Biden will be hopped up on drugs is just an armor to protect his fragile ego when he loses. I wonder if Trump has learned any lessons for his last debate, since he won’t be able to interrupt Biden he can’t do the same thing he did last time.
Based on all the data points, the percentage in my head for Trump chickening out has gone down a bit but is still around 70%.
Chickening out probability started declining yesterday or maybe now, purely as a function of getting closer to June 27. I think that at 6AM ET Saturday, the odds will be below 50%, assuming no big developments. No opinion about where they are now or how far below 50% they will be, except that odds were higher last weekend.
I think the odds will eventually go down as time passes, but there is still the question of what would be optimal timing for chickening out.
I think the optimal timing is either Friday 6/21 or Monday 6/24.
Friday is often the dumping ground for news you don’t want people to talk about since it’s before the weekend. But Friday also invites discussion on the Sunday TV news shows.
Monday avoids the latter problem and is in kind of a sweet spot for Trump in that it’s close enough to Thursday 6/27 to say, “This is close to the event and inconvenient for everyone, so fuck you!” while not saying, “I am pulling out at the last minute due to cold feed and/or infirmity.”
I think Tuesday is the last day in which to avoid this kind of negative speculation. The negative speculation that he is ditching out of fear will of course remain, but I don’t think Trump wants people to think that he was somehow incapacitated.
I would therefore keep my percentage at 70% until Tuesday. Then the percentages would be (all as of 12:01 am on each day):
Tues. 6/25: 40%
Wed. 6/26: 25%
Thurs. 6/27: 10%
Semi-new data point:
Occupy Democrats video that has Maggie Haberman of the NYT says that Trump is taking debate prep seriously.
However, she talks about the data point previously discussed here that two senators helped Trump prep, so it’s not totally new.
I’m not sure whether this changes my percentage or not.
Orangeanus will debate Biden 100%, most likely for the cause of just reciting campaign rally points.
Moderator: Mr. Trump, what is the best solution for peace in Israel/Palestine?
Orangeboy: If Hunter Biden weren’t in Ukraine taking bribes from Crooked Joe, I’d have cheap, affordable property for sale in the Antarctic. You could see the alien shipwreck that crash landed in that movie from your backyard, the one with that thing that coffevd all over the place because of Pelosi beating Obama 7 times in a row!
Apparently, Trump isn’t doing standard debate prep-he’s meeting with advisors and doing town halls. He’s never been a disciplined candidate, so that’s no surprise.
My prediction:
I think non-MAGA voters that actually watch the debate will be swayed towards Biden, but non-engaged voters, which is the majority of so-called independent voters, will think Trump won and be swayed towards him as a “strong leader” to Biden’s being “too old” and keeps making mental errors.
Regular media: “Trump projected a strong, forceful image, while Biden stumbled over his words.”
Rightwing media: “Trump is a God. Woke. What’s wrong with all those Democrats who worship Obama and Biden anyway? Woke.”
Plus, there have been several reports that these kinds of meeting aren’t actually all that focused. Trump just starts rambling on about all his usual bullshit. Maybe 10% of the time actually conveys useful information to Trump, with 90% of the time it’s just Trump blathering on. And of that 10%, he’ll forget 99% of it before he makes it back to his plane.
If this is his “debate prep”, it’s virtually worthless.