Quoted from another thread:
WAPO:
Will Trump go to jail?
The charges against Trump are nonviolent Class E felonies, the lowest level in New York, and they are punishable by 16 months to four years in state prison. Legal experts said it is unlikely that Trump, 77, would be incarcerated, given that he had not previously been convicted of a crime.
Other options for Merchan include sentencing Trump to probation, which would mean he would need approval from a parole officer to travel outside the state. Trump also could be fined or granted a conditional discharge pegged to the requirement that he stay out of further legal trouble, legal experts said.
I read a lot about anonymous legal experts saying that it’s unlikely that Trump will be prosecuted. Those with a different opinion in this thread need to explain why anonymous legal experts and anonymous prosecutors talking to reporters from WAPO and the NYT have a different opinion.
I’m genuinely curious. I opine that in a case like this one, the written opinion will have to be grounded in law and reason (straightforward) and that the prospect of jailing a Presidential candidate will have a larger influence than is stated.
IANAL but I also suspect the odds of multiple month incarceration, while less than 50%, are higher than indicated by the mainstream press so far.