I came across this article from Courthouse News Service . (Bolding is mine.)
[New York criminal defense attorney Ronald] Kuby said that Trump’s seemingly endless stamina for legal appeals, coupled with New York’s bail laws, could keep him free while the appellate process plays out.
“Due to New York’s bail laws, it is almost certain that Donald Trump will remain free on bail pending appeal while all of his various appeals go through various courts,” Kuby said. “The idea that if Merchan sends him to jail, he’s going to spend the Republican National Convention behind bars is just ridiculous.”
Kuby does think there’s a good chance that Merchan will sentence Trump to prison. I find it disheartening, though, that even if he’s sentenced to prison, he wouldn’t serve a day until he’d exhausted his appeals.
My opinion is that trying to figure out if Trump will go to prison by factoring in that it is a white collar crime that others don’t go to prison for and that it is a first offence, without factoring in that what is usually done is that the accused takes a plea deal and acts contrite and repentant and (way more often than not) doesn’t make a habit during the trial and/or before sentencing of disobeying judge’s orders over and over again, is a major mistake.
Personally I’d say how often is a judge ever going to get to sentence a former President? Swing for the fences and give him four years for each count but in deference to his age have these served concurrently rather than consecutively.
Trump is going to say any sentence is unfair, even if it is no sentence at all. So go for gusto and make him fight it on appeal if he doesn’t like it.
Never doubted it for a second. I was not addressing my reasoning to the judge, but to those who might not be factoring in Trump’s actions and words when trying to guess what might happen when he is sentenced.
Not impossible, and in fact if trump (inevitably-imho) breaks the terms of his suspended sentence- that may end up exactly that. I am betting the original sentence is fairly mild, but then after so many violations the judge loses his temper and - off to the grey bar hotel.
The judge doesn’t have to lose his temper (and I think he will be completely composed if Trump fucks up) when/if Trump acts against the judge’s orders. He just has to do his duty.
I think this is how Judge Merchan is going to go. But he is going to grant bail on appeal. This will avoid the endless RW assertions about election interference and shows deference to the office, if not the man. That seems in keeping with the sort of judge Judge Merchan is. Trump will still be a felon and still at the mercy of probationary supervision (he is going to hate this). He’s never going to shut up about it.
Trump’s appeals are more limited than many believe, and there is a real question about whether Trump’s appeal to SCOTUS will be successful. Most state court appeals would stay strictly within the appeals courts of the state the case was tried in.
Judge Merchan appears to have closed off many of Trump’s avenues of appeal (gift link):
If the SCOTUS steps in, then yes, Trump will probably escape all accountability. Can’t do much about that except to make sure that whoever is in charge of SCOTUS appointments coming up is a Democrat.
Yeah, I just checked it- and I was a little surprised- In NY, if the judge is lenient, he certainly can allow trump to remain out on bail- WITH CONDITIONS- while trumps useless appeal is pending.
The big picture:The appeal process will take several months, making it very unlikely to conclude before November.
That could actually be good news for Trump. He’d likely remain free on bail in the meantime even if Merchan sentences him to prison. Some legal analysts believe probation is more likely as Trump was convicted of the least serious class of felony under New York law. Serafini says Trump’s odds of overturning the verdict are low. “Most appeals are denied,” he told Axios. “Judges tend to get it right and this was an experienced judge.”
So, yes it is possible trump might be out on bail- with conditions- until his appeal is denied.
His passport will remain with the court, of course, and there could be other conditions. Not leaving the state is not impossible. If he violates any condition- in the slammer.
1 year sentence - suspended, followed by 2 years probation.
Conditions will include not publicly mentioning jury members, witnesses, members of the court or their families, or Stephanie Daniels with the exception of the judge and the DA. Trump will be free to travel, to campaign, to spread egregious lies about the court case and to disparage the judge as much as he likes.
And completely free for his appeal, which will be drawn out as long as possible.
Edit: When Trump calls Cohen a lying scum-sucking pig, the judge will call Trump and give him a stern warning.
If I were the judge I’d stress the seriousness of the charges and the absence of remorse, then sentence Trump to probation in light of his advanced age and clearly diminishing capacities. This balances mitigating and aggravating factors.
More seriously, I put the odds of incarceration at less than 50%, because I can’t find the press quoting any expert that contradicts that. Most experts interviewed by reporters say incarceration probably won’t happen. A minority of experts say that incarceration remains a very real possibility. So… less than 50% odds. And that’s a high characterization in light of the arguments given here: a straightforward weighting of expert opinion might put us under… 30%???
I’m calm and composed about this state of affairs. It’s not the court’s function to deny Trump the Presidency and uphold our 240 year experiment with constitutional democracy. It’s the citizenry’s. A republic if you can keep it. I’ll be supporting the Dems in 2024.
This, dammit. Let’s not fool ourselves, this particular convict is not like all others.
Contrary to what he claims in his daily demented rants, the courts in all his ongoing cases have bent over backwards to reiterate this is not an effort to hurt him and knock him off the race by judiciary means. Because his trials must not be about hurting him or knocking him off the race, but about his responsibility for his such unlawful actions as the standard of proof is met.
(Of course, he and a hyoooge number of his followers are of the mindset that being charged and put on trial in itself is an unjustified act of abuse. And he has already rambled about if this means that if elected he will have the right to order specious prosecutions of opponents as revenge.)
What’s you’re underlying reasoning behind this assertion? Because at all stages of this trial and the others, Trump and his cronies have been crying election interference. They’re not going to suddenly stop crying about election interference or lawfare if Merchan grants bail. Anything short of an acquittal and dropping all other charges is going to have the Republicans continue shouting about how unfair it is to Donnie.
Isn’t it normal for the court to take into account the demeaner of the convicted? From the start to today, Trump has been remorseless, contemptuous, and vilely cursing the ethics of the court (calling it a sham and whatnot). I’ve never seen Martha Stewart give such speeches. Give the doofus no mercy at this point.
