Neither Gertner nor Eisen has AFAIK New York State non-federal legal experience.
How common, in New York, is a sentence of intermittant incarceration, such as weekends in jail? Anyone know? As I’ve posted before, there is precedent.
That’s awesome. 
Thank you for fighting my ignorance! I really appreciate your effort on this.
NBC News, May 30: "Will Trump go to prison?
Former federal prosecutor Chuck Rosenberg: unlikely, given age and 1st time nonviolent offender.
Arthur Aidala, a former prosecutor in the Brooklyn district attorney’s office who’s now a defense lawyer: “a non-jail disposition.”
Norm Eisen, worked for House Dems during Trump’s first impeachment: We’ve done this guy. He did attempt an analysis of past convictions.
Ron Kuby, a veteran New York criminal defense lawyer: “Judge Merchan is known for being a harsh sentencer when it comes to white-collar crimes committed by people who have wealth and privilege and power… it is substantially likely Judge Merchan will sentence Trump to jail or prison time"
Kuby said that’s because the criminal scheme went on for over a year and included a number of bad acts on Trump’s part. “It’s an entire course of conduct he was involved with — not just one bad decision.”
But Kuby thinks that Trump will remain free while he appeals the conviction. To avoid appeal complications, Kuby thinks that Judge Merchan won’t touch Trump’s flouting of his gag order. I’ll note that during the trial Merchan did say that he wanted to avoid giving Trump jail time for that.
Kuby then conjectures that Trump would stay out of state prison if he won the election, because imprisonment would interfere with his constitutional duties. But when he left office, he would report to NY state prison.
I’ll note that the consensus among legal commentators tilts against imprisonment, but the 2 legal analysts who have drilled down deeper favors incarceration. But we’re only up to 5 named experts so far (six including this California lawyer who predicts no jail time), so the sample isn’t huge.
Eisen might be working the ref to some extent, but I think Kuby has a compelling perspective, though he’s hardly the final authority. Where you come out on this depends on how you weigh a general legal consensus vs 2 analysts (Aidala and Kuby) who know more about the particulars of the NY State court system.
h/t perplexity.ai
GOP senators warn the judge to not impose a prison sentence on Trump:
GOP senators warn judge against sentencing Trump to prison
Senate Republicans are warning New York Judge Juan Merchan not to sentence former President Trump to prison or house arrest or take any other action that could disrupt the likely GOP nominee’s ability to campaign ahead of the November election. - SOURCE
What used to be denied is now done out in the open. People have got to get a grip on what “Win At Any Cost” actually means.
From your article:
Republican senators warn any sentence that would impact Trump’s mobility or ability to communicate with voters could seriously undermine voters’ confidence in the fairness of the 2024 election.
Unfortunately the Republicans are repeatedly and actively trying to undermine voters’ confidence so their warnings are absolutely toothless. Merchan also has the fact that Trump’s crimes include election interference. If voters see a convicted election cheater getting a slap on the wrist, how much confidence is that going to give them?!